Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 14:51

Adam wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 14:24 RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 14:02 Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 13:40 Adam wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 11:40 Saw someone post on twitter that Bear's PDO currently is 91%. That is extremely bad luck. It means that any mistake right now is ending up in the net, which amplifies things. I don't think he's playing as well as he did last year yet - he may still be hampered by whatever injury he had earlier this season, or he may just be a young defenceman with some growing pains. His injury was a concussion, no? From taking that puck to the side of the head while on the bench. Would give ammunition to those thinking his problems are between the ears. I’ve had 6 concussions. I get teased by wife about certain mental gafs. It’s a real thing. He was playing not overly well before the concussion. I don't really buy into he's just unlucky this year. If a puck goes off your butt and in, is it just bad luck or is it bad luck because you are out of position? I kind of think part of his bad luck is making bad choices or being out of position then something happens. Shooting percentages tend to even out over time. If your PDO is 91%, it means that the other team is having tremendously high percentage of their shots going in while you're on the ice, or your team is having tremendously few of their shots going in while you're on, or both. Often NHL teams make bad decisions based on PDO anomalies like this - deciding a player is better or worse than he is based on something that is likely more a good or bad run than an actual indication of their play. There's a danger the Oilers do that here with Bear, especially if they're concerned about a logjam of RH defenceman and with some hope that they can deal for some additional help from a position of strength. That would be short-sighted, since they don't have Barrie under contract past this year and Bear's contract is very affordable at the moment. He isn't on top of his game, but he's looking artificially worse due to shooting percentages, so it's not the best time to sell. That PDO is, I assume, inflated due to the amount of times he flees the dzone leaving behind an odd man rush.

Disclaimer: Not presenting this as absolute truth.

David Staples' (yes, THE David Staples, please try to contain your excitement) scoring chance analysis is interesting:




A lot of these results do line up with what I view most players to be contributing. Except Bear's results are kind of striking. Or maybe not. He certainly has played a part in a lot of bad breakdowns in our end this year. I would consider him pretty uninvolved offensively this year as well. It's been a struggle, no doubt. Hope he gets it back together.

Saw Tippett say that the reason no D were there when McDavid's giveaway happened was because Bear's skate blade was broken and he was trying to rush off. Yeah, been that kind of year for Bear.

[Updated on: Tue, 16 March 2021 15:33]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:36

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:30 Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 14:51 Adam wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 14:24 RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 14:02 Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 13:40 Adam wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 11:40 Saw someone post on twitter that Bear's PDO currently is 91%. That is extremely bad luck. It means that any mistake right now is ending up in the net, which amplifies things. I don't think he's playing as well as he did last year yet - he may still be hampered by whatever injury he had earlier this season, or he may just be a young defenceman with some growing pains. His injury was a concussion, no? From taking that puck to the side of the head while on the bench. Would give ammunition to those thinking his problems are between the ears. I’ve had 6 concussions. I get teased by wife about certain mental gafs. It’s a real thing. He was playing not overly well before the concussion. I don't really buy into he's just unlucky this year. If a puck goes off your butt and in, is it just bad luck or is it bad luck because you are out of position? I kind of think part of his bad luck is making bad choices or being out of position then something happens. Shooting percentages tend to even out over time. If your PDO is 91%, it means that the other team is having tremendously high percentage of their shots going in while you're on the ice, or your team is having tremendously few of their shots going in while you're on, or both. Often NHL teams make bad decisions based on PDO anomalies like this - deciding a player is better or worse than he is based on something that is likely more a good or bad run than an actual indication of their play. There's a danger the Oilers do that here with Bear, especially if they're concerned about a logjam of RH defenceman and with some hope that they can deal for some additional help from a position of strength. That would be short-sighted, since they don't have Barrie under contract past this year and Bear's contract is very affordable at the moment. He isn't on top of his game, but he's looking artificially worse due to shooting percentages, so it's not the best time to sell. That PDO is, I assume, inflated due to the amount of times he flees the dzone leaving behind an odd man rush. Disclaimer: Not presenting this as absolute truth. David Staples' (yes, THE David Staples, please try to contain your excitement) scoring chance analysis is interesting: A lot of these results do line up with what I view most players to be contributing. Except Bear's results are kind of striking. Or maybe not. He certainly has played a part in a lot of bad breakdowns in our end this year. I would consider him pretty uninvolved offensively this year as well. It's been a struggle, no doubt. Hope he gets it back together. Saw Tippett say that the reason no D were there when McDavid's giveaway happened was because Bear's skate blade was broken and he was trying to rush off. Yeah, been that kind of year for Bear. I could be totally wrong but I don't know if I see Bear as being a dman who will ever score a lot. With Barrie now, Bouchard in the future and even Nurse, he probably won't ever get PP time and 5 on 5, I don't see him as overly offensive dman. He had 21 pts in 71 games last year. I could see him setting into that, maybe get up to 30 pts but not much higher. I don't think he is a good enough skater to be rushing the puck nor do I see him jumping into holes to get fed the puck for a goal like Barrie or Nurse so.

Here is last year's Bear Staples stats (the bottom half):



Guess on the defensive side similar, but the other way he was helping out more. I remember a guy last year that was able to make lots of good little plays in his own end to get a pass off to start the breakout. I'm not sure what the threshold is for D contributing to good chances, but maybe that counts if it leads to a great chance on a rush. I don't think he is making the same kinds of plays this year, and that was his big value last year. He did a lot of the passing for Nurse on that pair, when there wasn't an opportunity for Nurse to skate the puck out.

I guess comparing that top half to the more current stats, Bear hasn't made a single play to help create a chance since March 5th, hehe.

[Updated on: Tue, 16 March 2021 15:46]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

5 x $5,000,000

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:43

Here is last year's Bear Staples stats (the bottom half): Guess on the defensive side similar, but the other way he was helping out more. I remember a guy last year that was able to make lots of good little plays in his own end to get a pass off to start the breakout. I'm not sure what the threshold is for D contributing to good chances, but maybe that counts if it leads to a great chance on a rush. I don't think he is making the same kinds of plays this year, and that was his big value last year. He did a lot of the passing for Nurse on that pair, when there wasn't an opportunity for Nurse to skate the puck out. I guess comparing that top half to the more current stats, Bear hasn't made a single play to help create a chance since March 5th, hehe.

Staples analysis is so flawed. I remember this being a lively point of conflict when ol' Mudcrutch was lighting up twitter with long flame wars. This analysis isn't particularly useful when it relies on A) a single person's subjective views as to what is and isn't a mistake - especially someone with as unreliable an opinion as David Staples, and B) such a weird skew between forwards and defence. Clearly, Staples believes there's critical defenceman errors on almost every goal against - so they get much higher results on that side of the puck.

Mistakes and contributions aren't well defined - he was giving a the same mark for a player standing in front of the goal and providing a partial screen as he was for actually shooting the puck in the net. I have no idea what he constitutes as a mistake or how minor those need be to be counted.

I believe he's also only counting stats when they are related to a goal, which means that the vast majority of the time on ice isn't being tracked here and major flaws or great plays are ignored because they don't end up in the back of the net, while on a long shot that goes in, despite being a terrible chance, he's still potentially counting errors that are almost meaningless.

Staples numbers are the worst fancy stat ever. +/- is more telling.

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

Kr55 wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:30

Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 14:51 Adam wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 14:24 RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 14:02 Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 13:40 Adam wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 11:40 Saw someone post on twitter that Bear's PDO currently is 91%. That is extremely bad luck. It means that any mistake right now is ending up in the net, which amplifies things. I don't think he's playing as well as he did last year yet - he may still be hampered by whatever injury he had earlier this season, or he may just be a young defenceman with some growing pains. His injury was a concussion, no? From taking that puck to the side of the head while on the bench. Would give ammunition to those thinking his problems are between the ears. I’ve had 6 concussions. I get teased by wife about certain mental gafs. It’s a real thing. He was playing not overly well before the concussion. I don't really buy into he's just unlucky this year. If a puck goes off your butt and in, is it just bad luck or is it bad luck because you are out of position? I kind of think part of his bad luck is making bad choices or being out of position then something happens. Shooting percentages tend to even out over time. If your PDO is 91%, it means that the other team is having tremendously high percentage of their shots going in while you're on the ice, or your team is having tremendously few of their shots going in while you're on, or both. Often NHL teams make bad decisions based on PDO anomalies like this - deciding a player is better or worse than he is based on something that is likely more a good or bad run than an actual indication of their play. There's a danger the Oilers do that here with Bear, especially if they're concerned about a logjam of RH defenceman and with some hope that they can deal for some additional help from a position of strength. That would be short-sighted, since they don't have Barrie under contract past this year and Bear's contract is very affordable at the moment. He isn't on top of his game, but he's looking artificially worse due to shooting percentages, so it's not the best time to sell. That PDO is, I assume, inflated due to the amount of times he flees the dzone leaving behind an odd man rush. Disclaimer: Not presenting this as absolute truth. David Staples' (yes, THE David Staples, please try to contain your excitement) scoring chance analysis is interesting: A lot of these results do line up with what I view most players to be contributing. Except Bear's results are kind of striking. Or maybe not. He certainly has played a part in a lot of bad breakdowns in our end this year. I would consider him pretty uninvolved offensively this year as well. It's been a struggle, no doubt. Hope he gets it back together. Saw Tippett say that the reason no D were there when McDavid's giveaway happened was because Bear's skate blade was broken and he was trying to rush off. Yeah, been that kind of year for Bear.

Sorry, you lost me as I saw Jesse Puljujarvi’s numbers and Im now searching for my pants

Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

I make music:
Undermaker442

308 Media Group

Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:15

Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:09 Schmiddy gets the nets tomorrow 💪🏼 Confirmed by team https://twitter.com/edmontonoilers/status/137192257512781414 6?s=21 If that was Koskinen last night, he wouldn't get a start for 2 weeks after that game. "Battler" Smith gets a chance to redeem himself.

Assume Kosk get Thursday after the long drive to Winnipeg. You know, since they don’t even have an airport. 😏

Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty

Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:20

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:15 Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:09 Schmiddy gets the nets tomorrow 💪🏼 Confirmed by team https://twitter.com/edmontonoilers/status/137192257512781414 6?s=21 If that was Koskinen last night, he wouldn't get a start for 2 weeks after that game. "Battler" Smith gets a chance to redeem himself. Assume Kosk get Thursday after the long drive to Winnipeg. You know, since they don’t even have an airport. 😏

I still don't get this joke, especially being from Edmonton... a city that is not equipped to throw shade about airport locations.

Please do not feed the bears. Feeding the bears creates a dependent population unable to survive on their own. Bears.

CrusaderPi wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:24

Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:20 RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:15 Oscargasm wrote on Tue, 16 March 2021 15:09 Schmiddy gets the nets tomorrow 💪🏼 Confirmed by team https://twitter.com/edmontonoilers/status/137192257512781414 6?s=21 If that was Koskinen last night, he wouldn't get a start for 2 weeks after that game. "Battler" Smith gets a chance to redeem himself. Assume Kosk get Thursday after the long drive to Winnipeg. You know, since they don’t even have an airport. 😏 I still don't get this joke, especially being from Edmonton... a city that is not equipped to throw shade about airport locations.

It all started, I believe, when the Jets brought in Stastny who had been with St Louis prior and some blogger referenced the Jets travel schedule and amount of travel time over the rest of the central teams, so Blues fans assumed there was no airport in Winnipeg or something.

Survivor CHAMP S52 | S66
OG's #MUSTWIN Scale
Category 1 - Lightly Musty
Category 2 - Moderately Musty
Category 3 - Considerably Musty
Category 4 - Severely Musty
Category 5 - Incredibly Musty