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 Re: Pregame: Ottawa @ Edmonton (Game #28) [message #779293 is a reply to message #779290 ]
Fri, 12 March 2021 12:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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Kr55 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 13:13

Adam wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 11:05

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 10:14

K.McC#24 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 09:41

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 11 March 2021 20:41


Just don't think that's true in terms of generating offense. Athletically he was certainly not spectacular, but he has always been a smart and talented player that plays an efficient game. He knows how to do things that lead to offensive chances. Nuge is far less able to create offense 5v5, and there is a whole career of his stats that back that up. Nuge needs 1 less opposing player on the ice to look like a self sufficient competent playmaker.


Jaysus Kr, you have to be trolling here. Who would trade RNH for Eberle straight up even at Eberle's lower AAV and if Eberle were younger? I wouldn't.



Hard to say. Look at where the islanders are in the standings. Their best expected goals for player is...Eberle, by a few % (62.81%. Barzal is 58.88%).

If we want to have McDrai each playing C, I certainly would be open to an upgrade on the wing. Eberle is a better winger than Nuge, without a doubt. Gotta consider age and versatility of course, if McDavid or Drai are injured, Nuge is more useful then. Eberle likely starts falling off before Nuge. But right now, Eberle continues to be a better offensive hockey player and up in the air on the defensive side. Not much has been happening against with Eberle on the ice for the Islanders. Maybe that's Trotz and the system, but Eberle still stands out compared to his teammates.

Back when we were looking at trading one of Nuge/Hall/Ebs to try to improve the team, I think I was pretty honest about it here that Nuge was the guy that should go. We did the other 2, and many pathetic seasons followed as we just kept having to do McDrai on the same line to see any offense and with coaches scared to put the effort into figuring out how to get 2 lines going. Hard to blame them maybe because of how pitiful our winger situation was. And here we are again, full circle...bleh. Thank goodness for the north division at least.


I don't think I'd have traded Nugent-Hopkins for Eberle at any point in their careers, but I do think Eberle is badly underrated by Oilers fans. I think people have a hard time separating the results of bad teams with the good players on those teams. It doesn't help Eberle that he had a down season in his final year here and didn't have a huge production in the 2017 playoffs. He's shown since then that the narrative that he's not a playoff performer is total bunk. Is he a perfect player? No - but then who is? He's a very helpful player and while he's getting a little longer in the tooth now, he is still probably better than any right wing on our roster - at least at putting up points. Maybe Puljujarvi or Yamamoto can get there at some point, but at their age, Eberle was a more effective and impactful player.


Nuge is more valuable because he plays C for sure. With our current roster though, if you just swap Nuge and Eberle in our lineup, I think you could argue it could lead to more wins. Nuge hasn't really found his place on this roster this year, aside from being on the left wall on the PP which Eberle would do just as well at.



I dont think RNH is Bergeron but he is one of the teams more consistently reliable two way forwards. On a team that struggles mightily to defend I dont think that can be overlooked.
RNH is a swiss army knife right now on a team with a LOT of holes to fill.
In addition to the overall 2 way hockey he can kill penalties when needed, play on a line with tough matchups, is an overlooked key to a very successful powerplay, can play wing or center and is a senior leader on the team.
I like Eberle but you cant just compare offensive numbers and line driving anecdotal evidence when making a point that team would be better in trading for Ebs.
Eberle, like Hall, made a convenient scapegoat, and both would make the team better right now as they play a position of need. I wouldnt trade RNH for either of them straight up.

Moving RNH for any one dimensional winger that only fills that role would be a pretty massive mistake.



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 Re: Pregame: Ottawa @ Edmonton (Game #28) [message #779301 is a reply to message #779293 ]
Fri, 12 March 2021 13:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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PlusOne wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 12:40

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 13:13

Adam wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 11:05

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 10:14

K.McC#24 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 09:41

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 11 March 2021 20:41


Just don't think that's true in terms of generating offense. Athletically he was certainly not spectacular, but he has always been a smart and talented player that plays an efficient game. He knows how to do things that lead to offensive chances. Nuge is far less able to create offense 5v5, and there is a whole career of his stats that back that up. Nuge needs 1 less opposing player on the ice to look like a self sufficient competent playmaker.


Jaysus Kr, you have to be trolling here. Who would trade RNH for Eberle straight up even at Eberle's lower AAV and if Eberle were younger? I wouldn't.



Hard to say. Look at where the islanders are in the standings. Their best expected goals for player is...Eberle, by a few % (62.81%. Barzal is 58.88%).

If we want to have McDrai each playing C, I certainly would be open to an upgrade on the wing. Eberle is a better winger than Nuge, without a doubt. Gotta consider age and versatility of course, if McDavid or Drai are injured, Nuge is more useful then. Eberle likely starts falling off before Nuge. But right now, Eberle continues to be a better offensive hockey player and up in the air on the defensive side. Not much has been happening against with Eberle on the ice for the Islanders. Maybe that's Trotz and the system, but Eberle still stands out compared to his teammates.

Back when we were looking at trading one of Nuge/Hall/Ebs to try to improve the team, I think I was pretty honest about it here that Nuge was the guy that should go. We did the other 2, and many pathetic seasons followed as we just kept having to do McDrai on the same line to see any offense and with coaches scared to put the effort into figuring out how to get 2 lines going. Hard to blame them maybe because of how pitiful our winger situation was. And here we are again, full circle...bleh. Thank goodness for the north division at least.


I don't think I'd have traded Nugent-Hopkins for Eberle at any point in their careers, but I do think Eberle is badly underrated by Oilers fans. I think people have a hard time separating the results of bad teams with the good players on those teams. It doesn't help Eberle that he had a down season in his final year here and didn't have a huge production in the 2017 playoffs. He's shown since then that the narrative that he's not a playoff performer is total bunk. Is he a perfect player? No - but then who is? He's a very helpful player and while he's getting a little longer in the tooth now, he is still probably better than any right wing on our roster - at least at putting up points. Maybe Puljujarvi or Yamamoto can get there at some point, but at their age, Eberle was a more effective and impactful player.


Nuge is more valuable because he plays C for sure. With our current roster though, if you just swap Nuge and Eberle in our lineup, I think you could argue it could lead to more wins. Nuge hasn't really found his place on this roster this year, aside from being on the left wall on the PP which Eberle would do just as well at.



I dont think RNH is Bergeron but he is one of the teams more consistently reliable two way forwards. On a team that struggles mightily to defend I dont think that can be overlooked.
RNH is a swiss army knife right now on a team with a LOT of holes to fill.
In addition to the overall 2 way hockey he can kill penalties when needed, play on a line with tough matchups, is an overlooked key to a very successful powerplay, can play wing or center and is a senior leader on the team.
I like Eberle but you cant just compare offensive numbers and line driving anecdotal evidence when making a point that team would be better in trading for Ebs.
Eberle, like Hall, made a convenient scapegoat, and both would make the team better right now as they play a position of need. I wouldnt trade RNH for either of them straight up.

Moving RNH for any one dimensional winger that only fills that role would be a pretty massive mistake.



Definitely agree that Nuge's versatility gives him value. I think a lot of my view of the Nuge right now is affected by how our coach has zero interest in playing him in the spot he gave arguably the best performance of his entire career 5v5, by a decent margin. If Nuge is never again allowed to play wing with Drai, I think his value really drops a lot for us.

I do still believe his defensive game is overrated and still largely fueled by a reputation that has been created around him. Much by coaches that like how hard he is trying to be better defensively, but usually the losses just kept piling up in the mean time while most of the rest of the lineup bleed goals. Good for him being one of the better in terrible lineups though. His shot suppression stats while on the ice have never been that good. He has his fair share of brain farts in his own end. He can't push the river offensively without a driver on his line either. There is a lot of results that argue against his Datsyuk-lite reputation. I appreciate his effort to try to be more responsible defensively, but I've felt for a long time that is a big reason he's killed his offensive game, and for not that much in return in being able to actually shut down opposition.

My view currently of Nuge is that his greatest value is as a winger with linemates that are strong offensive zone possession players. Framing his role, on a team that actually has a shot to win a cup, as a winger I think begs the question of how he compares to other wingers and the value of the cap space he seems to be commanding.

I'm not saying trade him straight up for Ebs either :) I totally recognize the value difference. Ebs is 3 years older. Nuge plays C and I think most certainly has more value around the league. And heck, if we just played him with Drai, maybe Nuge would be near Eberle's 5v5 production this year too. In his 35 5v5 mins with Drai he has 3 points vs the whole 6 points he has with McDavid in 331 minutes. Shame on Tippett letting that Nuge+Drai ice time happen. Better avoid it or people might start asking questions again. But, if Nuge isn't allowed to play wing with Drai, then I still think just swapping him right now with Eberle could result in a better team today, ignoring all value considerations of a trade and worse case scenarios with injuries, etc...

[Updated on: Fri, 12 March 2021 13:36]


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 Re: Pregame: Ottawa @ Edmonton (Game #28) [message #779315 is a reply to message #779301 ]
Fri, 12 March 2021 18:57 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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Kr55 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 14:34



Definitely agree that Nuge's versatility gives him value. I think a lot of my view of the Nuge right now is affected by how our coach has zero interest in playing him in the spot he gave arguably the best performance of his entire career 5v5, by a decent margin. If Nuge is never again allowed to play wing with Drai, I think his value really drops a lot for us.

I do still believe his defensive game is overrated and still largely fueled by a reputation that has been created around him. Much by coaches that like how hard he is trying to be better defensively, but usually the losses just kept piling up in the mean time while most of the rest of the lineup bleed goals. Good for him being one of the better in terrible lineups though. His shot suppression stats while on the ice have never been that good. He has his fair share of brain farts in his own end. He can't push the river offensively without a driver on his line either. There is a lot of results that argue against his Datsyuk-lite reputation. I appreciate his effort to try to be more responsible defensively, but I've felt for a long time that is a big reason he's killed his offensive game, and for not that much in return in being able to actually shut down opposition.

My view currently of Nuge is that his greatest value is as a winger with linemates that are strong offensive zone possession players. Framing his role, on a team that actually has a shot to win a cup, as a winger I think begs the question of how he compares to other wingers and the value of the cap space he seems to be commanding.

I'm not saying trade him straight up for Ebs either :) I totally recognize the value difference. Ebs is 3 years older. Nuge plays C and I think most certainly has more value around the league. And heck, if we just played him with Drai, maybe Nuge would be near Eberle's 5v5 production this year too. In his 35 5v5 mins with Drai he has 3 points vs the whole 6 points he has with McDavid in 331 minutes. Shame on Tippett letting that Nuge+Drai ice time happen. Better avoid it or people might start asking questions again. But, if Nuge isn't allowed to play wing with Drai, then I still think just swapping him right now with Eberle could result in a better team today, ignoring all value considerations of a trade and worse case scenarios with injuries, etc...


A couple of very interesting points here that made me think a little deeper about my opinion.

To the bolded point about his defensive game. This is possible. given I dont participate in Oilers media in any way; post game coach comments, bloggers, radio, etc I am not often swayed by those kinds of opinions. That said, it has been enough years now that there is a chance that some of that bled into my thoughts. I also have a soft spot for RNH as the last soldier standing from the first wave of the rebuild.

One thing I will say though is to this point you made "good for him being one of the better in terrible lineups though." I have made this point regarding mostly our defenceman but we often have guys playing one spot up in the lineup, at least, in the lineup and it exposes them. It isnt that they arent NHL players, just unfit for the role they have been cast in.
I dont think RNH is Datsyuk but my worry is that if you get rid of the best of the terrible two way players everyone else bumps up a spot in responsibility. This is bad news for a team that bleads grade A chances.
It also means you likely rostering lesser players because they are good at "skill A" like penalty killing that *new winger* isnt able to handle.
So when (god forbid) Drai or McDavid are hurt you now have pretty terrible C depth. When the penalty kill falters who fills that role.

This is happening right now with the Bouchard discussion. There are comments being made that Larsson, Russell, Jones, Bear or whoever need to stay in to play on the PK, even if they are inferior overall hockey players. The comments arent inherently wrong but if the only reason a player is holding a roster spot is need on the PK the team is worse for it.

Ill have to watch him a little closer in the next few games and see if I just have a clouded, preset opinion of RNH.



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 Re: Pregame: Ottawa @ Edmonton (Game #28) [message #779358 is a reply to message #779315 ]
Fri, 12 March 2021 21:10 Go to previous message
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PlusOne wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 19:57

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 14:34



Definitely agree that Nuge's versatility gives him value. I think a lot of my view of the Nuge right now is affected by how our coach has zero interest in playing him in the spot he gave arguably the best performance of his entire career 5v5, by a decent margin. If Nuge is never again allowed to play wing with Drai, I think his value really drops a lot for us.

I do still believe his defensive game is overrated and still largely fueled by a reputation that has been created around him. Much by coaches that like how hard he is trying to be better defensively, but usually the losses just kept piling up in the mean time while most of the rest of the lineup bleed goals. Good for him being one of the better in terrible lineups though. His shot suppression stats while on the ice have never been that good. He has his fair share of brain farts in his own end. He can't push the river offensively without a driver on his line either. There is a lot of results that argue against his Datsyuk-lite reputation. I appreciate his effort to try to be more responsible defensively, but I've felt for a long time that is a big reason he's killed his offensive game, and for not that much in return in being able to actually shut down opposition.

My view currently of Nuge is that his greatest value is as a winger with linemates that are strong offensive zone possession players. Framing his role, on a team that actually has a shot to win a cup, as a winger I think begs the question of how he compares to other wingers and the value of the cap space he seems to be commanding.

I'm not saying trade him straight up for Ebs either :) I totally recognize the value difference. Ebs is 3 years older. Nuge plays C and I think most certainly has more value around the league. And heck, if we just played him with Drai, maybe Nuge would be near Eberle's 5v5 production this year too. In his 35 5v5 mins with Drai he has 3 points vs the whole 6 points he has with McDavid in 331 minutes. Shame on Tippett letting that Nuge+Drai ice time happen. Better avoid it or people might start asking questions again. But, if Nuge isn't allowed to play wing with Drai, then I still think just swapping him right now with Eberle could result in a better team today, ignoring all value considerations of a trade and worse case scenarios with injuries, etc...


A couple of very interesting points here that made me think a little deeper about my opinion.

To the bolded point about his defensive game. This is possible. given I dont participate in Oilers media in any way; post game coach comments, bloggers, radio, etc I am not often swayed by those kinds of opinions. That said, it has been enough years now that there is a chance that some of that bled into my thoughts. I also have a soft spot for RNH as the last soldier standing from the first wave of the rebuild.

One thing I will say though is to this point you made "good for him being one of the better in terrible lineups though." I have made this point regarding mostly our defenceman but we often have guys playing one spot up in the lineup, at least, in the lineup and it exposes them. It isnt that they arent NHL players, just unfit for the role they have been cast in.
I dont think RNH is Datsyuk but my worry is that if you get rid of the best of the terrible two way players everyone else bumps up a spot in responsibility. This is bad news for a team that bleads grade A chances.
It also means you likely rostering lesser players because they are good at "skill A" like penalty killing that *new winger* isnt able to handle.
So when (god forbid) Drai or McDavid are hurt you now have pretty terrible C depth. When the penalty kill falters who fills that role.

This is happening right now with the Bouchard discussion. There are comments being made that Larsson, Russell, Jones, Bear or whoever need to stay in to play on the PK, even if they are inferior overall hockey players. The comments arent inherently wrong but if the only reason a player is holding a roster spot is need on the PK the team is worse for it.

Ill have to watch him a little closer in the next few games and see if I just have a clouded, preset opinion of RNH.



My views on RNH have come around to be pretty aligned with KR’s of late. But I don’t think the argument is that we’re better off without Nuge. I think it’s more so we can’t improve the holes on the team if we continue to overpay and reward tenure with a raise just because. I’m also almost a full bottle of wine in after celebrating the new job and everything so maybe I’m not making sense haha



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 Re: Pregame: Ottawa @ Edmonton (Game #28) [message #779295 is a reply to message #779290 ]
Fri, 12 March 2021 12:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 11:13


Nuge is more valuable because he plays C for sure. With our current roster though, if you just swap Nuge and Eberle in our lineup, I think you could argue it could lead to more wins. Nuge hasn't really found his place on this roster this year, aside from being on the left wall on the PP which Eberle would do just as well at.



I honestly try to keep my Eberle bias in check in these conversations, but I really feel like this should be a pretty uncontroversial opinion.



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Pregame: Ottawa @ Edmonton (Game #28) [message #779302 is a reply to message #779295 ]
Fri, 12 March 2021 13:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 12:41

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 11:13


Nuge is more valuable because he plays C for sure. With our current roster though, if you just swap Nuge and Eberle in our lineup, I think you could argue it could lead to more wins. Nuge hasn't really found his place on this roster this year, aside from being on the left wall on the PP which Eberle would do just as well at.



I honestly try to keep my Eberle bias in check in these conversations, but I really feel like this should be a pretty uncontroversial opinion.


It is interesting to think that we haven't really replaced Hall and Eberle as wingers on this team since we dealt them. The team got miserable returns for both, and never really managed to use their cap space wisely either. Both would still easily fit in our top six if we had them here now, despite both being significantly older than when they left.

Nugent-Hopkins has still been a pretty good contributor this year though and I'd argue that he's undervalued. He kills penalties, he's been really effective at putting up powerplay points. He has definitely had a tough season at even strength, but in the past he's been more effective there. I remember in the Eakins/McLellan days of puzzling over how Nuge was a powerplay wizard in junior but there was a couple of years where he was only scoring even strength points.

Honestly, it may be better for the Oilers anyhow if this isn't a year he's absolutely lights out. Wait until he signs his extension for that!



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 Re: Pregame: Ottawa @ Edmonton (Game #28) [message #779304 is a reply to message #779302 ]
Fri, 12 March 2021 13:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 13:41

Goose wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 12:41

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 11:13


Nuge is more valuable because he plays C for sure. With our current roster though, if you just swap Nuge and Eberle in our lineup, I think you could argue it could lead to more wins. Nuge hasn't really found his place on this roster this year, aside from being on the left wall on the PP which Eberle would do just as well at.



I honestly try to keep my Eberle bias in check in these conversations, but I really feel like this should be a pretty uncontroversial opinion.


It is interesting to think that we haven't really replaced Hall and Eberle as wingers on this team since we dealt them. The team got miserable returns for both, and never really managed to use their cap space wisely either. Both would still easily fit in our top six if we had them here now, despite both being significantly older than when they left.

Nugent-Hopkins has still been a pretty good contributor this year though and I'd argue that he's undervalued. He kills penalties, he's been really effective at putting up powerplay points. He has definitely had a tough season at even strength, but in the past he's been more effective there. I remember in the Eakins/McLellan days of puzzling over how Nuge was a powerplay wizard in junior but there was a couple of years where he was only scoring even strength points.

Honestly, it may be better for the Oilers anyhow if this isn't a year he's absolutely lights out. Wait until he signs his extension for that!


That last point is the only non-stubbornness reason I can think of for why Tippett refuses to play Nuge on Drai's wing. We're trying to manage his value.

I guess if we are conceding that #1 in the division is unreachable, we may have time to show Nuge how weak he is 5v5 without Drai and he can just totally ignore his DRY line performance last year while he argues his value :)

[Updated on: Fri, 12 March 2021 13:51]


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 Re: Pregame: Ottawa @ Edmonton (Game #28) [message #779308 is a reply to message #779304 ]
Fri, 12 March 2021 14:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 12:45


That last point is the only non-stubbornness reason I can think of for why Tippett refuses to play Nuge on Drai's wing. We're trying to manage his value.

I guess if we are conceding that #1 in the division is unreachable, we may have time to show Nuge how weak he is 5v5 without Drai and he can just totally ignore his DRY line performance last year while he argues his value :)



The numbers definitely bear out your point, but it's pretty funny to me to think about the Oilers trying to decrease RNH's value by playing him with McDavid all the time icon_wink



Oilers Goal Differential
17/18: 234 GF / 263 GA (-29)
18/19: 232 GF / 274 GA (-42)
19/20 (82 game pace): 257 GF / 254 GA (+3) in 64 games
2021 (82 game pace):269 GF / 235 GA (+34) after 38 games

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 Re: Pregame: Ottawa @ Edmonton (Game #28) [message #779309 is a reply to message #779308 ]
Fri, 12 March 2021 14:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 14:09

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 12 March 2021 12:45


That last point is the only non-stubbornness reason I can think of for why Tippett refuses to play Nuge on Drai's wing. We're trying to manage his value.

I guess if we are conceding that #1 in the division is unreachable, we may have time to show Nuge how weak he is 5v5 without Drai and he can just totally ignore his DRY line performance last year while he argues his value :)



The numbers definitely bear out your point, but it's pretty funny to me to think about the Oilers trying to decrease RNH's value by playing him with McDavid all the time icon_wink


hehe, indeed. There was a point a month or so back where it was getting pretty clear that line was not working as much as one would dream. And on and on it went.

I made the last post mainly as a joke. I know Tippett has been hoping for Nuge and McDavid to blow the doors off together. He firmly believed that was better than putting the DRY line together. Now I guess he's kinda stuck if he really insists not giving into the pressure to give DRY a long run again. And to be fair, maybe there is some pressure that he's going to be annoying McDavid if McDavid is going to be playing with no vets on his wings against top competition. Maybe there is a belief in the org that you need to be playing one of Nuge or Drai with McDavid.



3rd only partially serious explanation for how Nuge is being handled. Tippett is getting him ready to be our #2C with Hall on his wing :)

[Updated on: Fri, 12 March 2021 17:27]


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 Re: Pregame: Ottawa @ Edmonton (Game #28) [message #779122 is a reply to message #779059 ]
Wed, 10 March 2021 17:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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National game... so we get Cassie in some form tonight. Sigh.

FTR: I am all for a female voice on the panel. But can it be a non Flame bias opinion?



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 Re: Pregame: Ottawa @ Edmonton (Game #28) [message #779262 is a reply to message #779122 ]
Thu, 11 March 2021 20:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Location: Prince Albert, Saskatchew...

2 Cups

Oscargasm wrote on Wed, 10 March 2021 17:37

National game... so we get Cassie in some form tonight. Sigh.

FTR: I am all for a female voice on the panel. But can it be a non Flame bias opinion?


I am with you. I feel bad saying something terrible about her, but she is epically hard to listen to talk.



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