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 Re: Puljujarvi wants out. [message #739190 is a reply to message #739188 ]
Fri, 21 June 2019 17:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner is currently offline mightyreasoner
Messages: 508
Registered: October 2005
Location: Edmonton
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Adam wrote on Fri, 21 June 2019 16:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 21 June 2019 16:28


What's JP worth then?
He was taken 4th overall. It's obvious that regardless of how he was developed, the Oilers scouts and many other scouts from other teams made a mistake in ranking him as high as he was. When you are drafted in the top 5, you should be a star player. Surely to god, you can't think he would be a star player even if the Oilers developed him perfectly. It's not there man. You are never getting a 4th overall pick for him EVER. It's gone.

So what's he worth?


A) The Oilers didn't make a mistake drafting him. It wasn't a ranking error. That's a consensus top 3 pick and they got him at #4. Your whole narrative on this is dead wrong and I've shown that again and again and again. Remember the posts where I showed several other top five picks that didn't become really good NHLers for 5+ years after their draft? Remember the list of pre-draft rankings where he was never below #3?

B) No one is giving up a fourth overall pick for him, but hey, it was only four years ago that we saw a struggling former fourth overall pick get the 15th and 31st picks for the Islanders...

C) I don't think there's much of a market for Puljujarvi right now. I think you probably can't get much more than a second rounder or a third or fourth line player for him. So I WOULD NOT trade him. There's no rush here to flush the asset.

That's not a good return, he's very young and capable of significant growth yet, and you aren't getting any immediate value from a 2nd round pick anyhow. It's got no better chances of turning in to something, so why just shift the risk - especially since you'd show players that all they need to do to get out is threaten the team that you won't play.

D) Finally look at it from a probability standpoint as if you are a GM. There's four possibilities here:

1. Puljujarvi outperforms 2nd round pick - you look awful. This is actually pretty likely. He's already an NHLer, and with a good organization, probably sees significant improvement. If he gets any powerplay time at all - which makes sense for a big right shot winger - he probably puts up points at a higher rate than he has to now.

2. 2nd round pick outperforms Puljujarvi. You look great...buuuuut it's taken 4-5 years to get there, and many people don't even remember how you acquired the player. If you polled normal Oilers fans (ie not the superfans on this site), I bet you'd find many don't know who we dealt to get the Klefbom pick...and that's a good example. Five years later, it finally started to look like a good trade. It's also not good odds of this scenario happening. The Oilers have literally picked a couple better players than #98 in 20 years worth of 2nd round picks. You've got a 10% chance of this working out, and that's assuming he doesn't rebound somewhere else and play another 15 seasons. If he rebounds and is even a third liner, your chances of outperform drop significantly.

3. Both 2nd round pick and Puljujarvi don't amount to anything. You look meh. The organization still looks bad for flushing yet another promising prospect, and no one remembers the 2nd round pick's name.

4. Both Puljujarvi and the 2nd round pick pan out. You look terrible, because Puljujuarvi is likely to pan out much before 2nd round pick does. People wonder what you were thinking trading him so fast when you could have tried to convince him to come back or let him increase his value first. By the time 2nd round pick is anything, you've already been branded the loser.

The best play, the least risky play, is to keep him now, rather than selling low.


Out of curiosity, can you recall any player who has gone to Europe and increased his trade value in the NHL? I truly can't think of an example. I think for managers trading, that's another red flag. For a team developing him, I think Europe is wise; for a team looking to trade him, I'm not as sure. I have trouble seeing managers paying more even if he does do well over there.

I do wish this request had not been made public and they just moved him this summer, because I think going public has really hurt the Oilers, whether they move him now or later.

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 Re: Puljujarvi wants out. [message #739202 is a reply to message #739190 ]
Fri, 21 June 2019 19:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam is currently offline Adam
Messages: 6803
Registered: August 2005
Location: Edmonton, AB
6 Cups
mightyreasoner wrote on Fri, 21 June 2019 17:27

Adam wrote on Fri, 21 June 2019 16:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 21 June 2019 16:28


What's JP worth then?
He was taken 4th overall. It's obvious that regardless of how he was developed, the Oilers scouts and many other scouts from other teams made a mistake in ranking him as high as he was. When you are drafted in the top 5, you should be a star player. Surely to god, you can't think he would be a star player even if the Oilers developed him perfectly. It's not there man. You are never getting a 4th overall pick for him EVER. It's gone.

So what's he worth?


A) The Oilers didn't make a mistake drafting him. It wasn't a ranking error. That's a consensus top 3 pick and they got him at #4. Your whole narrative on this is dead wrong and I've shown that again and again and again. Remember the posts where I showed several other top five picks that didn't become really good NHLers for 5+ years after their draft? Remember the list of pre-draft rankings where he was never below #3?

B) No one is giving up a fourth overall pick for him, but hey, it was only four years ago that we saw a struggling former fourth overall pick get the 15th and 31st picks for the Islanders...

C) I don't think there's much of a market for Puljujarvi right now. I think you probably can't get much more than a second rounder or a third or fourth line player for him. So I WOULD NOT trade him. There's no rush here to flush the asset.

That's not a good return, he's very young and capable of significant growth yet, and you aren't getting any immediate value from a 2nd round pick anyhow. It's got no better chances of turning in to something, so why just shift the risk - especially since you'd show players that all they need to do to get out is threaten the team that you won't play.

D) Finally look at it from a probability standpoint as if you are a GM. There's four possibilities here:

1. Puljujarvi outperforms 2nd round pick - you look awful. This is actually pretty likely. He's already an NHLer, and with a good organization, probably sees significant improvement. If he gets any powerplay time at all - which makes sense for a big right shot winger - he probably puts up points at a higher rate than he has to now.

2. 2nd round pick outperforms Puljujarvi. You look great...buuuuut it's taken 4-5 years to get there, and many people don't even remember how you acquired the player. If you polled normal Oilers fans (ie not the superfans on this site), I bet you'd find many don't know who we dealt to get the Klefbom pick...and that's a good example. Five years later, it finally started to look like a good trade. It's also not good odds of this scenario happening. The Oilers have literally picked a couple better players than #98 in 20 years worth of 2nd round picks. You've got a 10% chance of this working out, and that's assuming he doesn't rebound somewhere else and play another 15 seasons. If he rebounds and is even a third liner, your chances of outperform drop significantly.

3. Both 2nd round pick and Puljujarvi don't amount to anything. You look meh. The organization still looks bad for flushing yet another promising prospect, and no one remembers the 2nd round pick's name.

4. Both Puljujarvi and the 2nd round pick pan out. You look terrible, because Puljujuarvi is likely to pan out much before 2nd round pick does. People wonder what you were thinking trading him so fast when you could have tried to convince him to come back or let him increase his value first. By the time 2nd round pick is anything, you've already been branded the loser.

The best play, the least risky play, is to keep him now, rather than selling low.


Out of curiosity, can you recall any player who has gone to Europe and increased his trade value in the NHL? I truly can't think of an example. I think for managers trading, that's another red flag. For a team developing him, I think Europe is wise; for a team looking to trade him, I'm not as sure. I have trouble seeing managers paying more even if he does do well over there.

I do wish this request had not been made public and they just moved him this summer, because I think going public has really hurt the Oilers, whether they move him now or later.


Tony Salmelainen!

"Thinking that a bad team's best players are the reason the team is bad is the "Tambellini re-signing Lennart Petrell" of sports opinions." @Woodguy55
#FireLowe #FireBobbyNicks #FireKenHolland #FireKeithGretzky

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 Re: Puljujarvi wants out. [message #739230 is a reply to message #739016 ]
Fri, 21 June 2019 21:55 Go to previous message
Kr55 is currently offline Kr55
Messages: 9535
Registered: May 2002
Location: Edmonton
6 Cups
If you want to cringe, listen to how Holland says Pulju's name here at around 5:05

[Updated on: Sat, 22 June 2019 16:26]

"We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
- Lowe, 2013

"Next year I would forecast as another developmental year"
- MacT, 2015

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