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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718576 is a reply to message #718574 ]
Fri, 14 September 2018 09:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike  is currently offline Mike
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 11:50

I would not be happy because based on his body of work, he's not a 5 + mill dman right now.


He's certainly closer to being a $5M Dman than Russell is to being a $4M Dman or especially Koskinen being a $2.5M goalie.

People saying those little overpays didn't matter - THIS is exactly the kind of thing a lot of us were pointing to as a possible repercussion of our idiot GM spending like a drunken sailor on garbage. The extra little bit here and there adds up.

As for me - if we could lock up Nurse to a long term $5M per deal, I would do that in a heartbeat. He's not worth that yet, but I think he will be as soon as this year, and add in the prospect of the cap continually going up, and in 3-4 years, I would bet that a $5M Nurse would be a steal.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718578 is a reply to message #718576 ]
Fri, 14 September 2018 09:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently online CrusaderPi
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Mike wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 09:03

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 11:50

I would not be happy because based on his body of work, he's not a 5 + mill dman right now.


He's certainly closer to being a $5M Dman than Russell is to being a $4M Dman or especially Koskinen being a $2.5M goalie.

People saying those little overpays didn't matter - THIS is exactly the kind of thing a lot of us were pointing to as a possible repercussion of our idiot GM spending like a drunken sailor on garbage. The extra little bit here and there adds up.

As for me - if we could lock up Nurse to a long term $5M per deal, I would do that in a heartbeat. He's not worth that yet, but I think he will be as soon as this year, and add in the prospect of the cap continually going up, and in 3-4 years, I would bet that a $5M Nurse would be a steal.

Don't worry Mike, nhlnumbers.com (link in the header) says the Oilers are only 4.4 million over the cap. Sekera's cap hit is... 4.5 million.

Uh-oh.

Oops I'm wrong, Sekera's cap hit is 5.5.

[Updated on: Fri, 14 September 2018 09:18]


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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718623 is a reply to message #718578 ]
Sat, 15 September 2018 18:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
nullterm  is currently offline nullterm
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CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 08:14

Mike wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 09:03

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 11:50

I would not be happy because based on his body of work, he's not a 5 + mill dman right now.


He's certainly closer to being a $5M Dman than Russell is to being a $4M Dman or especially Koskinen being a $2.5M goalie.

People saying those little overpays didn't matter - THIS is exactly the kind of thing a lot of us were pointing to as a possible repercussion of our idiot GM spending like a drunken sailor on garbage. The extra little bit here and there adds up.

As for me - if we could lock up Nurse to a long term $5M per deal, I would do that in a heartbeat. He's not worth that yet, but I think he will be as soon as this year, and add in the prospect of the cap continually going up, and in 3-4 years, I would bet that a $5M Nurse would be a steal.

Don't worry Mike, nhlnumbers.com (link in the header) says the Oilers are only 4.4 million over the cap. Sekera's cap hit is... 4.5 million.

Uh-oh.

Oops I'm wrong, Sekera's cap hit is 5.5.


We’re a non-playoff team (possibly bottom five) with the league’s top cap hit. Over currently too.

I know the answers at depth.... but.... how??????

[Updated on: Sat, 15 September 2018 18:27]


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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718633 is a reply to message #718623 ]
Sun, 16 September 2018 16:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Ales Cooper  is currently offline Ales Cooper
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Morrissey just signed with the Peg. 2yrs 3.15 per.
Not a chance Nurse is worth more.



In fairness to Hall, I've wanted to throw a waterbottle at Eakins all season.
~nullterm 03/22/2014

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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718634 is a reply to message #718633 ]
Sun, 16 September 2018 16:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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Ales Cooper wrote on Sun, 16 September 2018 16:11

Morrissey just signed with the Peg. 2yrs 3.15 per.
Not a chance Nurse is worth more.


Chia-adjusted puts Nurse around 4.15M then? That's tough, but all part of "The Plan".



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718639 is a reply to message #718578 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 07:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG  is currently offline NetBOG
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CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 09:14


Don't worry Mike, nhlnumbers.com (link in the header) says the Oilers are only 4.4 million over the cap. Sekera's cap hit is... 4.5 million.

Uh-oh.

Oops I'm wrong, Sekera's cap hit is 5.5.


Those numbers are what your boy would call Fake News. CapFriendly.com has the proper numbers. Oilers are just short of $4 million under the salary cap right now, and will also have Sekera's cap hit to use once the season starts.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718643 is a reply to message #718639 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 09:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi is currently online CrusaderPi
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NetBOG wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 07:48

CrusaderPi wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 09:14


Don't worry Mike, nhlnumbers.com (link in the header) says the Oilers are only 4.4 million over the cap. Sekera's cap hit is... 4.5 million.

Uh-oh.

Oops I'm wrong, Sekera's cap hit is 5.5.


Those numbers are what your boy would call Fake News. CapFriendly.com has the proper numbers. Oilers are just short of $4 million under the salary cap right now, and will also have Sekera's cap hit to use once the season starts.

Good catch. The discrepancies come from NHL Numbers including Puljujarvi's bonuses, Ethan Bear, and Al Montoya's contract. I think we can assume Montoya will be buried. That makes Cap Friendly more correct as they're on listing 22 people on the Oilers roster plus Nurse zeroed out.

I sure hope Puljujarvi isn't counting on hitting his bonuses.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718581 is a reply to message #718576 ]
Fri, 14 September 2018 09:17 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Mike wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 09:03

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 11:50

I would not be happy because based on his body of work, he's not a 5 + mill dman right now.


He's certainly closer to being a $5M Dman than Russell is to being a $4M Dman or especially Koskinen being a $2.5M goalie.

People saying those little overpays didn't matter - THIS is exactly the kind of thing a lot of us were pointing to as a possible repercussion of our idiot GM spending like a drunken sailor on garbage. The extra little bit here and there adds up.

As for me - if we could lock up Nurse to a long term $5M per deal, I would do that in a heartbeat. He's not worth that yet, but I think he will be as soon as this year, and add in the prospect of the cap continually going up, and in 3-4 years, I would bet that a $5M Nurse would be a steal.


I hate getting into Russell debates because I am not even a fan of his but in all seriousness, what's he worth? Guys like Alzner signed for 4.625, Kulikov was 4.3, Brendan Smith was 4.35 who played in the minors because he sucked. None of those guys are any better and they ALL got similar term and more money in the same free agent year. Mark Stone who is a #5 at best and the people in Calgary aren't even sure he plays this year because of all the younger guys who are better signed for 3 yrs at 3.5 mill. I don't like Russell but if you have too, he can play in your top 4 at times and do a passable job. Mark Stone definitely CAN'T play in anyone's top 4 and he's barely making less than him. The alternative was to not sign Russell. The Oilers were going to be without Sekera for most of the year and people complained they didn't do enough to cover him off. I agree they didn't. So they were without Sekera for 3/4 of the year but then they were supposed to not resign Russell who was the other half of their second pairing that got them 103 pts and getting screwed out of the Western Finals. How does that make any sense? Again, I don't like the Russell contract but at the same time, the replacements were garbage in the market.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718583 is a reply to message #718574 ]
Fri, 14 September 2018 09:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 08:50

mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 13 September 2018 23:32

Three years ago, the Oilers gave Oscar Klefbom a 7-year, $4M average deal. His totals at the time were 77 games played, 23 points. It has worked out pretty well, but it was a gamble with a player more unproven than Nurse.

Nurse has watched the Oilers hand 4x4 to Russell last year, who is below him on the depth chart. This summer he watched them lock up Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula, Kyle Brodziak, Jakob Jarabek, and Kevin Gravel, all guys less important and in several cases, paid more than they should be.

Oh yeah, and Koskinen got 2.5 with 4 NHL games experience.

Meanwhile Nurse led the Oilers defense in points and was second in average ice time. He was first of all roster players in overall icetime.

I get it from Nurse's standpoint. They've made bets on & paid a lot of others, many of whom are less important to club, many of who have actually proven far less. They didn't dig in on Russell, Caggiula, Kassian, or Benning, but suddenly decide he is where they will make their last stand. He was their best defenseman last year, but they won't pay him accordingly. I actually don't think $4M is an unreasonable ask. He has comparables he can point to that this same GM signed.

I guess for me, and likely for the Nurse camp, there was money there this summer. But the Oilers prioritized and took gambles on lesser depth players and here we are now. I understand why them digging in now doesn't sit very well.


I am not going to talk much about Russell. I don't think UFA's can be used in discussing a contract like Nurse. I am not a fan of the Russell contract but he got what everyone else as getting that year and UFA's ALWAYS ALWAYS get more money and term than they should. Go look at every UFA that got signed this year on every team and you are going to be hard pressed to find one that anyone will say was a great deal. Kovalchuk is 35, hasn't played a single game in the NHL since 2012 and got 6.25 mill on a 3 yr deal. That's insane. Enough about Russell.

When you talk about the 4 guys you listed, Benning, Caggulia, Brodziak, Jarabek, Gravel. Combined, that is 6.25 mill for 5 guys. So an average of 1.25 mill per guy. Benning is a #5, puck moving, right shooting dman that has some offense ability and has the potential to maybe be a #4. He's making 1.9 mill. That isn't expensive at all. Brodziak is a good, right handed, PK, good in the room, decent faceoff winning, vet 4th line center that can chip in some offense and is a glue guy. 1.15 mill is not expensive. The Canucks paid 3 mill for Beagle. Calgary paid 3.125 for Ryan who was Carolina's 4th line center. Jarabek from every hockey guy I have heard from Montreal, Washington and all the stats guys say he is a solid, puck moving, can play some PP time, left shot dman who can easily be a 3rd pairing guy in the NHL. He's making 1 mill. He was making 925 last year. That's not expensive. If someone wants to debate Gravel being here, fine. He's a 6-7 dman on a lot of teams and he's making barely above league minimum. You need a #7 dman on the roster. The alternative would have been to have a young guy rotting in the press box. I don't think it was a bad signing. The only one is Caggulia. Did they give him an extra 100-200K more than I would have liked? Probably but he had 13 goals last year and if he can get 15 or more which I don't think is a stretch, 1.5 mill is not that bad.

Koskinen, I think they overpaid. Sounds like there was a bidding war for him that drove the price up. But the Oilers need someone to push Talbot. If Talbot doesn't have a good year, it wouldn't have matter who the Oilers had on their roster. You can't win without good goaltending. When I say they need a push for Talbot, I don't mean a good back up who is capable of giving you decent games where you might have a chance to win when Talbot needs a night off, I mean a legit push from a guy looking to take his job. They need a guy who can go on a run if Talbot falters. They need a guy who Talbot legit feels pressure from, not a guy who's his buddy but who deep down he knows can't take his job. There were lots of back ups who signed for less than Koskinen who some people gripped about who I am sorry, are back ups. That is ALL they will ever be. The only guys I thought who were available that could push legit push Talbot for time was Bernier who signed for 3 mill per for 3 yrs, Halak who was 2.75 mill per for 2 years for and maybe Lehner who signed for 1.5 mill but Lehner is supposed to be a freaking headcase. So while I am worried about the gamble with Koskinen, they needed to do something with the goaltending but signing Mrazek or insert who ever career back up wasn't the answer in my estimation.

From what I have heard from reports, Nurse and his agent in various reports. Unless the Oilers overpaid him, he wasn't signing long term because he himself doesn't know what he is. He himself feels he hasn't shown what he thinks he will be as a dman. So if the Oilers offered him 5 mill on a long term. No way he takes that because he thinks he's worth more. I personally don't think that but I don't know. I am a big time Nurse fan but even if the Oilers had cap space and they signed him long term for over 5 mill which is what I think it would take, I would not be happy because based on his body of work, he's not a 5 + mill dman right now.


Russell isn't great for comparison, but he is good for context. It's one thing if the overpaid player is above on the depth chart; it's quite another when you are demonstrably better. And even that is okay normally except when the club that overpaid freely a season ago is now penny-pinching in paying you.

You are correct when you identify other similar UFA contracts signed that have been failures, but the takeaway is to not sign those deals to begin with. One of the frustrating excuses I had to deal with all year in regards to Russell was that they had to sign him because of the Sekera injury. But here we are a year later, Sekera is injured worse and longer, and they can't find the money to pay the better defenseman in Nurse?

Cagguila, Benning, Gravel, etc. are mentioned not for comparison but to demonstrate priorities. They should have signed their most important players first. Get Nurse done and then sign people for what is left. Grind Cagguila down 300k. Don't sign Gravel because it looks like he may be the odd man out anyway. Pay your best players. Sign them first. Then fill out the rest of the roster and if you are going to grind guys over a couple 100k, let it be your fourth line, your backup goalie, your third pairing defensemen.

As for Klefbom, if I'm Nurse's agent I'm straight up asking why they signed Klefbom long term at that money with those numbers and if they are happy that they did.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718587 is a reply to message #718583 ]
Fri, 14 September 2018 10:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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mightyreasoner wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 09:52

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 08:50

mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 13 September 2018 23:32

Three years ago, the Oilers gave Oscar Klefbom a 7-year, $4M average deal. His totals at the time were 77 games played, 23 points. It has worked out pretty well, but it was a gamble with a player more unproven than Nurse.

Nurse has watched the Oilers hand 4x4 to Russell last year, who is below him on the depth chart. This summer he watched them lock up Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula, Kyle Brodziak, Jakob Jarabek, and Kevin Gravel, all guys less important and in several cases, paid more than they should be.

Oh yeah, and Koskinen got 2.5 with 4 NHL games experience.

Meanwhile Nurse led the Oilers defense in points and was second in average ice time. He was first of all roster players in overall icetime.

I get it from Nurse's standpoint. They've made bets on & paid a lot of others, many of whom are less important to club, many of who have actually proven far less. They didn't dig in on Russell, Caggiula, Kassian, or Benning, but suddenly decide he is where they will make their last stand. He was their best defenseman last year, but they won't pay him accordingly. I actually don't think $4M is an unreasonable ask. He has comparables he can point to that this same GM signed.

I guess for me, and likely for the Nurse camp, there was money there this summer. But the Oilers prioritized and took gambles on lesser depth players and here we are now. I understand why them digging in now doesn't sit very well.


I am not going to talk much about Russell. I don't think UFA's can be used in discussing a contract like Nurse. I am not a fan of the Russell contract but he got what everyone else as getting that year and UFA's ALWAYS ALWAYS get more money and term than they should. Go look at every UFA that got signed this year on every team and you are going to be hard pressed to find one that anyone will say was a great deal. Kovalchuk is 35, hasn't played a single game in the NHL since 2012 and got 6.25 mill on a 3 yr deal. That's insane. Enough about Russell.

When you talk about the 4 guys you listed, Benning, Caggulia, Brodziak, Jarabek, Gravel. Combined, that is 6.25 mill for 5 guys. So an average of 1.25 mill per guy. Benning is a #5, puck moving, right shooting dman that has some offense ability and has the potential to maybe be a #4. He's making 1.9 mill. That isn't expensive at all. Brodziak is a good, right handed, PK, good in the room, decent faceoff winning, vet 4th line center that can chip in some offense and is a glue guy. 1.15 mill is not expensive. The Canucks paid 3 mill for Beagle. Calgary paid 3.125 for Ryan who was Carolina's 4th line center. Jarabek from every hockey guy I have heard from Montreal, Washington and all the stats guys say he is a solid, puck moving, can play some PP time, left shot dman who can easily be a 3rd pairing guy in the NHL. He's making 1 mill. He was making 925 last year. That's not expensive. If someone wants to debate Gravel being here, fine. He's a 6-7 dman on a lot of teams and he's making barely above league minimum. You need a #7 dman on the roster. The alternative would have been to have a young guy rotting in the press box. I don't think it was a bad signing. The only one is Caggulia. Did they give him an extra 100-200K more than I would have liked? Probably but he had 13 goals last year and if he can get 15 or more which I don't think is a stretch, 1.5 mill is not that bad.

Koskinen, I think they overpaid. Sounds like there was a bidding war for him that drove the price up. But the Oilers need someone to push Talbot. If Talbot doesn't have a good year, it wouldn't have matter who the Oilers had on their roster. You can't win without good goaltending. When I say they need a push for Talbot, I don't mean a good back up who is capable of giving you decent games where you might have a chance to win when Talbot needs a night off, I mean a legit push from a guy looking to take his job. They need a guy who can go on a run if Talbot falters. They need a guy who Talbot legit feels pressure from, not a guy who's his buddy but who deep down he knows can't take his job. There were lots of back ups who signed for less than Koskinen who some people gripped about who I am sorry, are back ups. That is ALL they will ever be. The only guys I thought who were available that could push legit push Talbot for time was Bernier who signed for 3 mill per for 3 yrs, Halak who was 2.75 mill per for 2 years for and maybe Lehner who signed for 1.5 mill but Lehner is supposed to be a freaking headcase. So while I am worried about the gamble with Koskinen, they needed to do something with the goaltending but signing Mrazek or insert who ever career back up wasn't the answer in my estimation.

From what I have heard from reports, Nurse and his agent in various reports. Unless the Oilers overpaid him, he wasn't signing long term because he himself doesn't know what he is. He himself feels he hasn't shown what he thinks he will be as a dman. So if the Oilers offered him 5 mill on a long term. No way he takes that because he thinks he's worth more. I personally don't think that but I don't know. I am a big time Nurse fan but even if the Oilers had cap space and they signed him long term for over 5 mill which is what I think it would take, I would not be happy because based on his body of work, he's not a 5 + mill dman right now.


Russell isn't great for comparison, but he is good for context. It's one thing if the overpaid player is above on the depth chart; it's quite another when you are demonstrably better. And even that is okay normally except when the club that overpaid freely a season ago is now penny-pinching in paying you.

You are correct when you identify other similar UFA contracts signed that have been failures, but the takeaway is to not sign those deals to begin with. One of the frustrating excuses I had to deal with all year in regards to Russell was that they had to sign him because of the Sekera injury. But here we are a year later, Sekera is injured worse and longer, and they can't find the money to pay the better defenseman in Nurse?

Cagguila, Benning, Gravel, etc. are mentioned not for comparison but to demonstrate priorities. They should have signed their most important players first. Get Nurse done and then sign people for what is left. Grind Cagguila down 300k. Don't sign Gravel because it looks like he may be the odd man out anyway. Pay your best players. Sign them first. Then fill out the rest of the roster and if you are going to grind guys over a couple 100k, let it be your fourth line, your backup goalie, your third pairing defensemen.

As for Klefbom, if I'm Nurse's agent I'm straight up asking why they signed Klefbom long term at that money with those numbers and if they are happy that they did.


I'd say the Oilers are pretty happy with the Klefbom contract. At the time he was already in their top 4, injuries held him back. Then as soon as he signed the deal, he plays a 82 games, has 12 goals, 38 pts and plays like a borderline top pairing guy. At 4.166 mill for a guy who at worse is a really good second pairing guy capable of putting up at least 30+ pts, that's an outstanding deal for the Oilers. In hindsight, Klefbom probably should have bridged and he would have got more money. Even in a year where Klefbom's shoulder flared up and he could barely shoot, he had 21 pts. Nurse had 26 fully healthy. If I am the Oilers, I wouldn't be rushing to sign Nurse long term unless he takes less than 5 mill. I look at Nurse and like I said, I am a big fan of his but right now, I don't see him as more than a tough, solid defending, second pairing guy who gets you maybe 30 pts. So given that Klefbom signed 2 years ago and with the cap going up each year since, that puts him in the high 4's.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718613 is a reply to message #718587 ]
Fri, 14 September 2018 23:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 10:34

mightyreasoner wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 09:52

RDOilerfan wrote on Fri, 14 September 2018 08:50

mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 13 September 2018 23:32

Three years ago, the Oilers gave Oscar Klefbom a 7-year, $4M average deal. His totals at the time were 77 games played, 23 points. It has worked out pretty well, but it was a gamble with a player more unproven than Nurse.

Nurse has watched the Oilers hand 4x4 to Russell last year, who is below him on the depth chart. This summer he watched them lock up Matt Benning, Drake Caggiula, Kyle Brodziak, Jakob Jarabek, and Kevin Gravel, all guys less important and in several cases, paid more than they should be.

Oh yeah, and Koskinen got 2.5 with 4 NHL games experience.

Meanwhile Nurse led the Oilers defense in points and was second in average ice time. He was first of all roster players in overall icetime.

I get it from Nurse's standpoint. They've made bets on & paid a lot of others, many of whom are less important to club, many of who have actually proven far less. They didn't dig in on Russell, Caggiula, Kassian, or Benning, but suddenly decide he is where they will make their last stand. He was their best defenseman last year, but they won't pay him accordingly. I actually don't think $4M is an unreasonable ask. He has comparables he can point to that this same GM signed.

I guess for me, and likely for the Nurse camp, there was money there this summer. But the Oilers prioritized and took gambles on lesser depth players and here we are now. I understand why them digging in now doesn't sit very well.


I am not going to talk much about Russell. I don't think UFA's can be used in discussing a contract like Nurse. I am not a fan of the Russell contract but he got what everyone else as getting that year and UFA's ALWAYS ALWAYS get more money and term than they should. Go look at every UFA that got signed this year on every team and you are going to be hard pressed to find one that anyone will say was a great deal. Kovalchuk is 35, hasn't played a single game in the NHL since 2012 and got 6.25 mill on a 3 yr deal. That's insane. Enough about Russell.

When you talk about the 4 guys you listed, Benning, Caggulia, Brodziak, Jarabek, Gravel. Combined, that is 6.25 mill for 5 guys. So an average of 1.25 mill per guy. Benning is a #5, puck moving, right shooting dman that has some offense ability and has the potential to maybe be a #4. He's making 1.9 mill. That isn't expensive at all. Brodziak is a good, right handed, PK, good in the room, decent faceoff winning, vet 4th line center that can chip in some offense and is a glue guy. 1.15 mill is not expensive. The Canucks paid 3 mill for Beagle. Calgary paid 3.125 for Ryan who was Carolina's 4th line center. Jarabek from every hockey guy I have heard from Montreal, Washington and all the stats guys say he is a solid, puck moving, can play some PP time, left shot dman who can easily be a 3rd pairing guy in the NHL. He's making 1 mill. He was making 925 last year. That's not expensive. If someone wants to debate Gravel being here, fine. He's a 6-7 dman on a lot of teams and he's making barely above league minimum. You need a #7 dman on the roster. The alternative would have been to have a young guy rotting in the press box. I don't think it was a bad signing. The only one is Caggulia. Did they give him an extra 100-200K more than I would have liked? Probably but he had 13 goals last year and if he can get 15 or more which I don't think is a stretch, 1.5 mill is not that bad.

Koskinen, I think they overpaid. Sounds like there was a bidding war for him that drove the price up. But the Oilers need someone to push Talbot. If Talbot doesn't have a good year, it wouldn't have matter who the Oilers had on their roster. You can't win without good goaltending. When I say they need a push for Talbot, I don't mean a good back up who is capable of giving you decent games where you might have a chance to win when Talbot needs a night off, I mean a legit push from a guy looking to take his job. They need a guy who can go on a run if Talbot falters. They need a guy who Talbot legit feels pressure from, not a guy who's his buddy but who deep down he knows can't take his job. There were lots of back ups who signed for less than Koskinen who some people gripped about who I am sorry, are back ups. That is ALL they will ever be. The only guys I thought who were available that could push legit push Talbot for time was Bernier who signed for 3 mill per for 3 yrs, Halak who was 2.75 mill per for 2 years for and maybe Lehner who signed for 1.5 mill but Lehner is supposed to be a freaking headcase. So while I am worried about the gamble with Koskinen, they needed to do something with the goaltending but signing Mrazek or insert who ever career back up wasn't the answer in my estimation.

From what I have heard from reports, Nurse and his agent in various reports. Unless the Oilers overpaid him, he wasn't signing long term because he himself doesn't know what he is. He himself feels he hasn't shown what he thinks he will be as a dman. So if the Oilers offered him 5 mill on a long term. No way he takes that because he thinks he's worth more. I personally don't think that but I don't know. I am a big time Nurse fan but even if the Oilers had cap space and they signed him long term for over 5 mill which is what I think it would take, I would not be happy because based on his body of work, he's not a 5 + mill dman right now.


Russell isn't great for comparison, but he is good for context. It's one thing if the overpaid player is above on the depth chart; it's quite another when you are demonstrably better. And even that is okay normally except when the club that overpaid freely a season ago is now penny-pinching in paying you.

You are correct when you identify other similar UFA contracts signed that have been failures, but the takeaway is to not sign those deals to begin with. One of the frustrating excuses I had to deal with all year in regards to Russell was that they had to sign him because of the Sekera injury. But here we are a year later, Sekera is injured worse and longer, and they can't find the money to pay the better defenseman in Nurse?

Cagguila, Benning, Gravel, etc. are mentioned not for comparison but to demonstrate priorities. They should have signed their most important players first. Get Nurse done and then sign people for what is left. Grind Cagguila down 300k. Don't sign Gravel because it looks like he may be the odd man out anyway. Pay your best players. Sign them first. Then fill out the rest of the roster and if you are going to grind guys over a couple 100k, let it be your fourth line, your backup goalie, your third pairing defensemen.

As for Klefbom, if I'm Nurse's agent I'm straight up asking why they signed Klefbom long term at that money with those numbers and if they are happy that they did.


I'd say the Oilers are pretty happy with the Klefbom contract. At the time he was already in their top 4, injuries held him back. Then as soon as he signed the deal, he plays a 82 games, has 12 goals, 38 pts and plays like a borderline top pairing guy. At 4.166 mill for a guy who at worse is a really good second pairing guy capable of putting up at least 30+ pts, that's an outstanding deal for the Oilers. In hindsight, Klefbom probably should have bridged and he would have got more money. Even in a year where Klefbom's shoulder flared up and he could barely shoot, he had 21 pts. Nurse had 26 fully healthy. If I am the Oilers, I wouldn't be rushing to sign Nurse long term unless he takes less than 5 mill. I look at Nurse and like I said, I am a big fan of his but right now, I don't see him as more than a tough, solid defending, second pairing guy who gets you maybe 30 pts. So given that Klefbom signed 2 years ago and with the cap going up each year since, that puts him in the high 4's.


Yeah, I'd agree I think the Oilers are very happy with the Klefbom deal and he probably is well below market value now.

But I think you could make the same argument for Nurse that justified that contract for Klefbom. He's unquestionably in their Top-4, arguably one of their Top-2 last year. He looks capable of having that same kind of breakout point output, certainly capable of hitting 30 points.

Given the rate of inflation, if the Oilers could lock up Nurse for somewhere around $5M they probably should. And if they are looking for a bridge, I think somewhere around $4M probably isn't a crazy ask.

But here's what I think is actually happening (and credit to Elliotte Friedman because he brought it up in 31 Thoughts):

Quote:

Elliotte Friedman, 31 Thoughts: The defencemen — Josh Morrissey, Darnell Nurse and Shea Theodore — are interesting. A GM pointed out last week that it’s been a couple of years since their comparables did bridge deals.

In 2016, four signed two-year contracts: Matt Dumba ($5.1 million), Cody Ceci ($5.6 million), Ryan Murray ($5.65 million) and Jacob Trouba ($6 million). Since then, it is five years for Colton Parayko, six for Shayne Gostisbehere, Noah Hanifin, Damon Severson and Brady Skjei, seven for Jaccob Slavin, eight for Michael Matheson.

Morrissey prefers a bridge, Nurse prefers a bridge, and Theodore is apparently wide open. Some of the trouble stems from teams saying those contracts are based on what happened two years ago, while players/agents respond with, “Have you heard of inflation?”


I wonder if Morrissey, Theodore, and Nurse (and their agents) are all kind of waiting around to see what the others sign for; I wonder if there isn't a bit of a holding pattern. And if so, I wonder if once the first one signs, we don't see the other two sign very quickly after that for similar dollars.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718635 is a reply to message #718613 ]
Sun, 16 September 2018 16:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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So Morrissey signs a 2 yr, 6.3 milled so 3.15 mill per year.
Hs stats were:
81G, 7g, 26 pts, +15. 25 of his points were even strength points. With 20.27 mins of ice time.
Nurse had 82 GP, 6g, 26 pts, +15. All of his points were even strength. He ad 22.15 of ice time.

So what's next Darnell? There is an EXACT comparable. How do you and your agent argue what you are worth?



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718638 is a reply to message #718635 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 00:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Sun, 16 September 2018 15:53


So what's next Darnell? There is an EXACT comparable. How do you and your agent argue what you are worth?


There's two things to consider when looking at salary, in any job really. Internal equity and external equity.

This contract doesn't really change the external equity equation. It's always been in this range.

My guess is that it's the internal equity piece that Nurse is arguing. He's not the 5th best defenceman on this team right now, why should he be paid like it? Also, the Sekera injury gives him leverage, might as well take advantage of it.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718640 is a reply to message #718638 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 08:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 00:03

RDOilerfan wrote on Sun, 16 September 2018 15:53


So what's next Darnell? There is an EXACT comparable. How do you and your agent argue what you are worth?


There's two things to consider when looking at salary, in any job really. Internal equity and external equity.

This contract doesn't really change the external equity equation. It's always been in this range.

My guess is that it's the internal equity piece that Nurse is arguing. He's not the 5th best defenceman on this team right now, why should he be paid like it? Also, the Sekera injury gives him leverage, might as well take advantage of it.

I see it differently. Agents all talk to one another. They know exactly what other agents are asking for, for their clients. They use other players contracts as a comparable in their negotiations. If Nurse was able to go to an arbitrator, they would use other players contracts to set the number.

Edmundson who is a defensive left shooting dman signed a 1 yr, 3 mill contract with the Blues. In 69 games, he had 7 goals, 17 points. If he plays a full season, he has over 20.
Montour signed a 2 year deal for 3.3875 mill. He's right handed, runs a PP and scores more than Nurse.

So the Nurse camp says "we are better than Edmundson, we had more points, we deserve more." Oilers come back and say "well you didn't score as many points as Montour and you don't play on the PP, you don't deserve what he makes."

Then Morrissey signs for 2 yrs at 3.15 mill. What's Morrissey. According to TSN's bio, he's a good skating, puck moving, offensive dman. Nurse is not listed as an offensive dman, he's listed as a shut down guy. On the Jets, Morrissey was a left shooting, shutdown top 4 dman. The same role as Nurse. You look at the numbers.
Morrissey: 81 GP, 6g, 26 pts, +15. 25 of his points were at evens.
Nurse: 82 GP, 6g, 26 pt2, +15. All of his points were scored at evens.

You cover the names, who's who based on the stats. Morrissey is the EXACT same comparable. f he thinks he should make more, fine, give him 100k more to make him happy. I am a huge Nurse fan, they need him bad but at the same time he is not at a position in his career where he can afford to miss games or even camp. He's not the finished product yet. He's got more development to go. If he wants to get paid on a long term deal in the near future. Missing camp and games will hurt him because it will put him behind. I don't see how Nurse can argue anymore with Morrissey's contract. Morrissey played over 20 mins a night, with no PP time on a stacked blueline. He fought the good fight for himself, tried to get more money. It's over.

A person can list their house for whatever they want but if your neighbour puts up their house for less than yours and the houses are virtually identical, just because you think your house colour is nicer than your neighbours, doesn't mean your house is worth more.

[Updated on: Mon, 17 September 2018 08:48]


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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718645 is a reply to message #718640 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 09:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 08:43



A person can list their house for whatever they want but if your neighbour puts up their house for less than yours and the houses are virtually identical, just because you think your house colour is nicer than your neighbours, doesn't mean your house is worth more.


This analogy is key. All of the houses around Nurse have already sold for 25-50% above market value.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718647 is a reply to message #718645 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 09:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 09:33

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 08:43



A person can list their house for whatever they want but if your neighbour puts up their house for less than yours and the houses are virtually identical, just because you think your house colour is nicer than your neighbours, doesn't mean your house is worth more.


This analogy is key. All of the houses around Nurse have already sold for 25-50% above market value.


Yeah, but at some point, someone takes the market correction price.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718649 is a reply to message #718645 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 10:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 09:33

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 08:43



A person can list their house for whatever they want but if your neighbour puts up their house for less than yours and the houses are virtually identical, just because you think your house colour is nicer than your neighbours, doesn't mean your house is worth more.


This analogy is key. All of the houses around Nurse have already sold for 25-50% above market value.


The problem is that hockey players aren't houses and relative negotiating strength does come in to play.

For Morrisey's camp, they know that Winnipeg has a very good team with strong depth on the defence. They may miss Morrisey, but they wouldn't have missed him that much. The team has also been pretty consistent with how it's handled players. They've never been easy to negotiate against. Just ask Trouba. Hell, look at that Scheifele contract - it's a gem.

The Oilers aren't in the same position. The depth on defence is terrible, and Nurse and his agent know that the Oilers are in trouble without #25. His value above replacement on this roster is huge.

On top of that, the GM has never been known as a hard negotiator. Pushover Pete is more like it. I expect that the play now for Nurse's camp is to wait out training camp and as soon as Sekera is on LTIR, get a little more from the Oilers. Chiarelli will breathe a big sigh of relief as soon as he has money to spend again, and the Oilers will sign Nurse to a ONE YEAR deal, in the $3.5-$3.75MM range.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718650 is a reply to message #718645 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 10:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 09:33

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 08:43



A person can list their house for whatever they want but if your neighbour puts up their house for less than yours and the houses are virtually identical, just because you think your house colour is nicer than your neighbours, doesn't mean your house is worth more.


This analogy is key. All of the houses around Nurse have already sold for 25-50% above market value.

How do you figure that?
Edmondson was an RFA who is 25, left shot, has 205 NHL games, signed for 3 mill.
Montour was an RFA is 24, a right show, only has 107 NHL games, is more offensive, signed for 2 yrs at 3.875 mill.
Morrissey was an RFA who is 23, is a left shot, has 164 NHL games. Has identical stats to Nurse, plays the same role signed for 2 yrs at 3.15 mill per year.
These 3 guys are his direct comparables on a bridge.

You can take it further. Colin Miller is 25, right shooting, puck moving, offensive dman. He had 41 pts last year. Signed with Vegas for 4 yrs at 3.875 mill. Miller was Vegas's top scoring dman.

Hanifin has 238 games and has may more points than Nurse and he is younger and he signed for 6 yrs at 4.95 mill.

So the market says on a bridge he is worth between 3-3.4 mill. He has an identical dman comparable that says it should be 3.15mill because their stats are identical. Then there is a comparable on what a 4 yr deal should cost you in Miller and a 6 yr contract in Hanifin.
Even on his own team, Klefbom signed a 7 yr deal for 4.1666 mill. I love Nurse but he's not better than Klefbom. Yes it was 2 yrs ago so you tack on a bit more for inflation. That that would push you towards the Hanifin number on a long term.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718653 is a reply to message #718650 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 10:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 10:12

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 09:33

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 08:43



A person can list their house for whatever they want but if your neighbour puts up their house for less than yours and the houses are virtually identical, just because you think your house colour is nicer than your neighbours, doesn't mean your house is worth more.


This analogy is key. All of the houses around Nurse have already sold for 25-50% above market value.

How do you figure that?
Edmondson was an RFA who is 25, left shot, has 205 NHL games, signed for 3 mill.
Montour was an RFA is 24, a right show, only has 107 NHL games, is more offensive, signed for 2 yrs at 3.875 mill.
Morrissey was an RFA who is 23, is a left shot, has 164 NHL games. Has identical stats to Nurse, plays the same role signed for 2 yrs at 3.15 mill per year.
These 3 guys are his direct comparables on a bridge.

You can take it further. Colin Miller is 25, right shooting, puck moving, offensive dman. He had 41 pts last year. Signed with Vegas for 4 yrs at 3.875 mill. Miller was Vegas's top scoring dman.

Hanifin has 238 games and has may more points than Nurse and he is younger and he signed for 6 yrs at 4.95 mill.

So the market says on a bridge he is worth between 3-3.4 mill. He has an identical dman comparable that says it should be 3.15mill because their stats are identical. Then there is a comparable on what a 4 yr deal should cost you in Miller and a 6 yr contract in Hanifin.
Even on his own team, Klefbom signed a 7 yr deal for 4.1666 mill. I love Nurse but he's not better than Klefbom. Yes it was 2 yrs ago so you tack on a bit more for inflation. That that would push you towards the Hanifin number on a long term.


As others have mentioned the players in Nurses "neighborhood" are his teammates. An agent and player will ALWAYS use that in negotiations.

To be clear, I agree with everything you say about what he deserves and should be paid. I havent seen anyone on this board (that I recall) say he deserves 4+ but I am saying I can see why he is holding his ground. PC dug this hole and Nurse doesn't want be the one to take fair market value




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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718648 is a reply to message #718640 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 09:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 07:43


I see it differently. Agents all talk to one another. They know exactly what other agents are asking for, for their clients. They use other players contracts as a comparable in their negotiations. If Nurse was able to go to an arbitrator, they would use other players contracts to set the number.

Edmundson who is a defensive left shooting dman signed a 1 yr, 3 mill contract with the Blues. In 69 games, he had 7 goals, 17 points. If he plays a full season, he has over 20.
Montour signed a 2 year deal for 3.3875 mill. He's right handed, runs a PP and scores more than Nurse.

So the Nurse camp says "we are better than Edmundson, we had more points, we deserve more." Oilers come back and say "well you didn't score as many points as Montour and you don't play on the PP, you don't deserve what he makes."

Then Morrissey signs for 2 yrs at 3.15 mill. What's Morrissey. According to TSN's bio, he's a good skating, puck moving, offensive dman. Nurse is not listed as an offensive dman, he's listed as a shut down guy. On the Jets, Morrissey was a left shooting, shutdown top 4 dman. The same role as Nurse. You look at the numbers.
Morrissey: 81 GP, 6g, 26 pts, +15. 25 of his points were at evens.
Nurse: 82 GP, 6g, 26 pt2, +15. All of his points were scored at evens.

You cover the names, who's who based on the stats. Morrissey is the EXACT same comparable. f he thinks he should make more, fine, give him 100k more to make him happy. I am a huge Nurse fan, they need him bad but at the same time he is not at a position in his career where he can afford to miss games or even camp. He's not the finished product yet. He's got more development to go. If he wants to get paid on a long term deal in the near future. Missing camp and games will hurt him because it will put him behind. I don't see how Nurse can argue anymore with Morrissey's contract. Morrissey played over 20 mins a night, with no PP time on a stacked blueline. He fought the good fight for himself, tried to get more money. It's over.

A person can list their house for whatever they want but if your neighbour puts up their house for less than yours and the houses are virtually identical, just because you think your house colour is nicer than your neighbours, doesn't mean your house is worth more.


You don't need to convince me, there's no way I would pay Nurse $5M+ on a long term deal, or over $4M on a bridge. I'm just trying to explain what I think is going on from Nurse's perspective, and why I don't think it's at all crazy for him to hold out for more.

Let's say the Oilers go into the season without Nurse. A bottom 4 of Russel/Benning/Gravel/Jerabek or Bear or Bouchard or whoever they put down there will get absolutely steamrolled. How many games do you think they can lose running that group before the pressure to re-sign Nurse gets to be too much?



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718651 is a reply to message #718648 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 10:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 09:58

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 07:43


I see it differently. Agents all talk to one another. They know exactly what other agents are asking for, for their clients. They use other players contracts as a comparable in their negotiations. If Nurse was able to go to an arbitrator, they would use other players contracts to set the number.

Edmundson who is a defensive left shooting dman signed a 1 yr, 3 mill contract with the Blues. In 69 games, he had 7 goals, 17 points. If he plays a full season, he has over 20.
Montour signed a 2 year deal for 3.3875 mill. He's right handed, runs a PP and scores more than Nurse.

So the Nurse camp says "we are better than Edmundson, we had more points, we deserve more." Oilers come back and say "well you didn't score as many points as Montour and you don't play on the PP, you don't deserve what he makes."

Then Morrissey signs for 2 yrs at 3.15 mill. What's Morrissey. According to TSN's bio, he's a good skating, puck moving, offensive dman. Nurse is not listed as an offensive dman, he's listed as a shut down guy. On the Jets, Morrissey was a left shooting, shutdown top 4 dman. The same role as Nurse. You look at the numbers.
Morrissey: 81 GP, 6g, 26 pts, +15. 25 of his points were at evens.
Nurse: 82 GP, 6g, 26 pt2, +15. All of his points were scored at evens.

You cover the names, who's who based on the stats. Morrissey is the EXACT same comparable. f he thinks he should make more, fine, give him 100k more to make him happy. I am a huge Nurse fan, they need him bad but at the same time he is not at a position in his career where he can afford to miss games or even camp. He's not the finished product yet. He's got more development to go. If he wants to get paid on a long term deal in the near future. Missing camp and games will hurt him because it will put him behind. I don't see how Nurse can argue anymore with Morrissey's contract. Morrissey played over 20 mins a night, with no PP time on a stacked blueline. He fought the good fight for himself, tried to get more money. It's over.

A person can list their house for whatever they want but if your neighbour puts up their house for less than yours and the houses are virtually identical, just because you think your house colour is nicer than your neighbours, doesn't mean your house is worth more.


You don't need to convince me, there's no way I would pay Nurse $5M+ on a long term deal, or over $4M on a bridge. I'm just trying to explain what I think is going on from Nurse's perspective, and why I don't think it's at all crazy for him to hold out for more.

Let's say the Oilers go into the season without Nurse. A bottom 4 of Russel/Benning/Gravel/Jerabek or Bear or Bouchard or whoever they put down there will get absolutely steamrolled. How many games do you think they can lose running that group before the pressure to re-sign Nurse gets to be too much?

I agree. The Hanifin 6 yr deal is the high water mark for Nurse on a long term. I would love to be able to sit in on a meeting with Nurse and his agent when they decide what they think they are worth, especially now. There are reports he was asking for 4 mill on a bridge. Based on what? He's got under 200 NHL games and has a career high 26 pts. What screams 4 mill dman from those stats at his stage in his career?



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718652 is a reply to message #718651 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 10:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 10:22


I agree. The Hanifin 6 yr deal is the high water mark for Nurse on a long term. I would love to be able to sit in on a meeting with Nurse and his agent when they decide what they think they are worth, especially now. There are reports he was asking for 4 mill on a bridge. Based on what? He's got under 200 NHL games and has a career high 26 pts. What screams 4 mill dman from those stats at his stage in his career?


I think what screams that is that his GM is a pushover who's overpaid EVERYONE else. We saw Nurse's agent publicly criticize the other signings that Chiarelli has made. That's not very usual, but I don't think that the agents have a lot of respect for our GM and extended management team, and I think they believe if they lean on the Oilers just a little bit, the team will crack and Nurse will get a better deal.

They're probably right.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718655 is a reply to message #718652 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 10:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 10:28

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 17 September 2018 10:22


I agree. The Hanifin 6 yr deal is the high water mark for Nurse on a long term. I would love to be able to sit in on a meeting with Nurse and his agent when they decide what they think they are worth, especially now. There are reports he was asking for 4 mill on a bridge. Based on what? He's got under 200 NHL games and has a career high 26 pts. What screams 4 mill dman from those stats at his stage in his career?


I think what screams that is that his GM is a pushover who's overpaid EVERYONE else. We saw Nurse's agent publicly criticize the other signings that Chiarelli has made. That's not very usual, but I don't think that the agents have a lot of respect for our GM and extended management team, and I think they believe if they lean on the Oilers just a little bit, the team will crack and Nurse will get a better deal.

They're probably right.


Maybe what you are said i the agent said about other signings is part of the problem. You have every right to criticize other moves if you want too privately but to vice that publicly is unprofessional. You don't bash your boss. The only 2 signings that warranted any criticizing is Koskinen because he's an unknown and Caggulia. I don't necessarily have a problem with the money amount of Koskinen's deal. If you want a goalie that can legit push Talbot and at worse give you 20-25 starts like I think they probably need, I don't think you can get that guy for 1.5 mill. 1.5 mill is getting you a back up who is only a back up. The guys who are legit guys who can be a push and give you that many games are Bernier, Halak, both of whom signed for more. There was Lehner who signed for 1.5 mill but it has come out he had a drinking problem and mental health issues. The Oilers can't role the dice on a guy like that. So the money doesn't bother me, it's the gamble on the unknown player. But even if the Oilers had an extra mill because they signed a back up back up, I am still not giving Nurse more than 5 mill on a long term. He's not worth it yet. On Caggulia, how much of an overpay is he maybe? 150K, 200k if that? He had 13 goals last year. That is 3rd liner production. If he gets you 15 goals over the next 2 seasons while running around like he does, you are happily taking that. 2 more goal is no unrealistic. So if Nurse's agent wants to be mad at signings, go rip a strip off Montour's agent. 3.3875 capped what Nurse can get.



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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718661 is a reply to message #718655 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 12:21 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
Messages: 1664
Registered: July 2006
Location: Regina, Sask

1 Cup

Word on twitter is he has signed and I am relieved because the team needs him.

Now we wait on the numbers



"I miss Kris Russell" PlusOne Dec 2018
Something I never thought would come out of my mouth

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 Re: Nurse's Next Contract [message #718667 is a reply to message #718661 ]
Mon, 17 September 2018 12:34 Go to previous message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
Messages: 3471
Registered: January 2016

3 Cups

2 yr deal. 3.2 mill per year. Good thing he held out for that extra 50k. Regardless, right in where he should be.


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