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 Speculation » Auston Matthews' Next Contract
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 Auston Matthews' Next Contract [message #718317]
Sun, 09 September 2018 22:18 Go to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Location: Edmonton, AB

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Some noise this week from Dreger on the Matthews contract negotiations:

Quote:

"I had an NHL manager tell me earlier today - Western Conference, granted - but he goes, 'I will buy you the best steak dinner there is if Auston Matthews signs for a dollar less than what Connor McDavid is making."


https://www.bardown.com/an-nhl-executive-offered-an-extremel y-bold-take-on-comparing-matthews-next-contract-to-mcdavid-s -1.1169020

I hope this happens, because it puts the Leafs in a bind, but the idea that Matthews is in McDavid's league is ridiculous.

Here's the stats for them to date:

McDavid - 209 GP, 87-169-256 0.42 GPG, 1.22 PPG
Matthews - 144 GP, 74-58-132 0.51 GPG, 0.92 PPG

Uhhh, that's not close. If you're ponying up McDavid money on the basis of those stats, you're not doing your team any favours.

Looking for some comparables for Matthews, you might look at the two #2's overall in those draft years:

Eichel - 209 GP, 73-104-177 0.35 GPG, 0.85 PPG
Laine- 155 GP, 80-54-134 0.52 GPG, 0.86 PPG

Or there's #3 and #25 from 2014:

Draisaitl - 269 GP, 75-132-207 0.28 GPG, 0.77 PPG
Pastrnak - 254 GP, 94-109-203 0.37 GPG, 0.80 PPG

Or even #1 & #2 from 2013:

McKinnon- 374 GP, 114-189-303 0..30 GPG, 0.81 PPG
Barkov - 331 GP, 100-149-249 0.30 GPG, 0.75 PPG

There's a good argument here that Matthews might expect the second best second contract of any of these players, but to suggest he deserves to be paid top of the league money at this point seems a stretch.

For all the hype around Matthews, Matt Barzal's rookie season was much more productive. He's a couple years older than Matthews was as a rookie, but he also scored 16 points more...

In the last two years, Matthews is 34th in total points and 26th in points per game. He's really good, and a player you'd definitely take on your team, but if you pay top dollar to the 26th highest producing player in the league, you're getting robbed. Here's hoping Dubas does it.

Oh - and most entertaining comparable in the last two years? Matthews 0.92 PPG, Phil Kessel 0.99 PPG



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 Re: Auston Matthews' Next Contract [message #718318 is a reply to message #718317 ]
Sun, 09 September 2018 22:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Even though Matthews is an inferior player, obviously, the Leafs are likely making more money off him than the Oilers can make off McDavid. He has every right to account for that negotiating his salary.

Go Matthews go! 14M+ AAV :)



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
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 Re: Auston Matthews' Next Contract [message #718319 is a reply to message #718318 ]
Sun, 09 September 2018 23:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Skookum Jim  is currently offline Skookum Jim
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Kr55 wrote on Sun, 09 September 2018 21:25

Even though Matthews is an inferior player, obviously, the Leafs are likely making more money off him than the Oilers can make off McDavid. He has every right to account for that negotiating his salary.

Go Matthews go! 14M+ AAV :)


Go Mathews GO!!
To the Moon baby! $14M+ and a NMC.. Oh YEAH !!



McDAVID! Oh YEAH Baby!!
Tic-Tac-Tao!
Keep on Rockin' in the Free World
P. Chiarelli math.. T. Hall = A. Larsson, Yak= bag o'pucks, K. Russell = $4.1 M+NMC, G. Reinhart= M. Barzal + A. Beauvillier, J. Eberle = R. Spooner,

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 Re: Auston Matthews' Next Contract [message #718325 is a reply to message #718319 ]
Mon, 10 September 2018 08:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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It really doesn't matter what stat is posted, he will get at least 11 mill and I think 12 mill easy. If the Leafs don't hesitate to give a going to be 28 next week Tavares a 7 yr, 11 mill per season contract, how can you justify paying Matthews any less. I don't care that Tavares was a UFA, the league is fast going towards paying young players a ton of money early for what they are hopefully going to do vs paying a ton of money for old vets. Taking out the experience level which in my opinion is the only thing Tavares has over Matthews, Matthews in my opinion is a better player. Matthews is American, no ties to the team other than they drafted him, there is already some tension between he and Babcock. You don't diss your franchise player by underpaying him especially after you just backed the brinks truck up to the old, local boy who in all likelihood will never live up to that contract.


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 Re: Auston Matthews' Next Contract [message #718328 is a reply to message #718325 ]
Mon, 10 September 2018 09:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 10 September 2018 08:31

It really doesn't matter what stat is posted, he will get at least 11 mill and I think 12 mill easy. If the Leafs don't hesitate to give a going to be 28 next week Tavares a 7 yr, 11 mill per season contract, how can you justify paying Matthews any less. I don't care that Tavares was a UFA, the league is fast going towards paying young players a ton of money early for what they are hopefully going to do vs paying a ton of money for old vets. Taking out the experience level which in my opinion is the only thing Tavares has over Matthews, Matthews in my opinion is a better player. Matthews is American, no ties to the team other than they drafted him, there is already some tension between he and Babcock. You don't diss your franchise player by underpaying him especially after you just backed the brinks truck up to the old, local boy who in all likelihood will never live up to that contract.


I look at Tavares, I look at Eichel, I don't offer Matthews a dollar more than Tavares is getting, and I explain to him that we're trying to build a Cup winner, and that we have to sign his buddies Nylander and Marner too, and that if we wreck against the rocks of the salary cap, a window can be missed here.

The Leafs are lucky though - they haven't made a lot of errors. They could dump the Horton contract to someone like Arizona if it becomes an issue for tagging reasons. Marleau's deal still looks like an overpay to me, but its about the only one. Kadri has a no-trade, but it's only a 10-team restriction, so if you needed to move on from him, that's not that difficult to accomplish too. I'm a little jealous that the Leafs have managed to put themselves in a position where they have so much space ($13.3+$5.3 for Horton and even more - $35MM free - for next year) as they come up to this point. Lou and Dubas have been really fiscally responsible with that team while turning the corner on competitiveness at the same time.

Here's hoping that Matthews, Marner and Nylander are all greedy, take every cent they can and blow that all to hell.



"This team needs an enema!"
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 Re: Auston Matthews' Next Contract [message #718462 is a reply to message #718317 ]
Wed, 12 September 2018 15:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG  is currently offline NetBOG
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Dreger now saying Nylander wants $8 million on a long term deal

https://www.tsn.ca/video/dreger-nylander-probably-won-t-be-i n-camp-word-is-he-s-asking-for-8m%7E1486944

These young guys want to (and should) get paid what they are worth. So happy the Oilers got Drai locked up at $8.5, going to be a bargain in just a few years.



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 Re: Auston Matthews' Next Contract [message #718465 is a reply to message #718462 ]
Wed, 12 September 2018 15:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Pseudoreality  is currently offline Pseudoreality
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NetBOG wrote on Wed, 12 September 2018 15:31

Dreger now saying Nylander wants $8 million on a long term deal

https://www.tsn.ca/video/dreger-nylander-probably-won-t-be-i n-camp-word-is-he-s-asking-for-8m%7E1486944

These young guys want to (and should) get paid what they are worth. So happy the Oilers got Drai locked up at $8.5, going to be a bargain in just a few years.


You're joking, right? Pastrnak signed after Drai at almost $2MM/year less. Drai is the farthest thing from a bargain you could get.



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 Re: Auston Matthews' Next Contract [message #718474 is a reply to message #718465 ]
Wed, 12 September 2018 16:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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Pseudoreality wrote on Wed, 12 September 2018 15:50

NetBOG wrote on Wed, 12 September 2018 15:31

Dreger now saying Nylander wants $8 million on a long term deal

https://www.tsn.ca/video/dreger-nylander-probably-won-t-be-i n-camp-word-is-he-s-asking-for-8m%7E1486944

These young guys want to (and should) get paid what they are worth. So happy the Oilers got Drai locked up at $8.5, going to be a bargain in just a few years.


You're joking, right? Pastrnak signed after Drai at almost $2MM/year less. Drai is the farthest thing from a bargain you could get.


The sucky part about Pastrnak is that he was the 3rd best player on his line, and still is. Who knows how the kid would perform if he didn't have the best defensive C in the league making life easy for him. That stupid ducks series totally screwed us over, and Drai dominated with 2 turds on his wings on his own line. Who knows what kind of offer sheets he was leveraging against us. Lots of shortsighted GM's in this league that were probably licking their chops at a chance to get him. I wouldn't doubt Bergevin put some feelers out.

Not to fully excuse Chia, but there are some differences in situations for some of the players he gets compared to. In a few years I imagine a lot of young guys will be in the 8M+ club that are worse than him.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Auston Matthews' Next Contract [message #718491 is a reply to message #718474 ]
Thu, 13 September 2018 09:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 12 September 2018 16:16

Pseudoreality wrote on Wed, 12 September 2018 15:50

NetBOG wrote on Wed, 12 September 2018 15:31

Dreger now saying Nylander wants $8 million on a long term deal

https://www.tsn.ca/video/dreger-nylander-probably-won-t-be-i n-camp-word-is-he-s-asking-for-8m%7E1486944

These young guys want to (and should) get paid what they are worth. So happy the Oilers got Drai locked up at $8.5, going to be a bargain in just a few years.


You're joking, right? Pastrnak signed after Drai at almost $2MM/year less. Drai is the farthest thing from a bargain you could get.


The sucky part about Pastrnak is that he was the 3rd best player on his line, and still is. Who knows how the kid would perform if he didn't have the best defensive C in the league making life easy for him. That stupid ducks series totally screwed us over, and Drai dominated with 2 turds on his wings on his own line. Who knows what kind of offer sheets he was leveraging against us. Lots of shortsighted GM's in this league that were probably licking their chops at a chance to get him. I wouldn't doubt Bergevin put some feelers out.

Not to fully excuse Chia, but there are some differences in situations for some of the players he gets compared to. In a few years I imagine a lot of young guys will be in the 8M+ club that are worse than him.

GM's definitely put a lot of stock in what a player does in the playoffs. Personally, while I think it carries some importance, I think GM's put too much stock in it. We have seen it time and time again that a player in the playoffs can get hot then a team offers him a contract based on that and he never does it again. Can we all say Pisani. With the cap going up and the way salaries are going for young players, I do not think the Drai contract is that bad and will look better and better every year BUT I do think his playoffs got him a 500-750K boost.



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 double post [message #718466 is a reply to message #718462 ]
Wed, 12 September 2018 15:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Pseudoreality  is currently offline Pseudoreality
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n/m


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 Re: double post [message #718494 is a reply to message #718466 ]
Thu, 13 September 2018 09:41 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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According to Dreger, Babcock has decided that the Leafs will run A's on Marleau, Tavares and Rielly. You have your young, franchise center up for a new contract that will cost you a fortune who already has a bit of a strained relationship with your pompous coach. So much so that the coach had to go to Matthews house to meet with him to try and clear the air. If the organization had it in their mind to try to get him to take a little less to "go for it", way to start things off by letting your coach diss him by not giving him a letter. For whatever reason, letters matter to players. Probably would have meant a hell of a lot to a young player like Matthews even if he's not a big rah rah guy. Does going to be 39 in 2 days Marleau really need a letter to be a leader? I doubt it. Plus you make sure to give the local, overpaid boy, Tavares who's been there a couple of months, a letter.

Matthews is not taking a discount, he is going to get at least McDavid money.



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 Re: double post [message #718496 is a reply to message #718494 ]
Thu, 13 September 2018 09:46 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55  is currently offline Kr55
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 13 September 2018 09:41

According to Dreger, Babcock has decided that the Leafs will run A's on Marleau, Tavares and Rielly. You have your young, franchise center up for a new contract that will cost you a fortune who already has a bit of a strained relationship with your pompous coach. So much so that the coach had to go to Matthews house to meet with him to try and clear the air. If the organization had it in their mind to try to get him to take a little less to "go for it", way to start things off by letting your coach diss him by not giving him a letter. For whatever reason, letters matter to players. Probably would have meant a hell of a lot to a young player like Matthews even if he's not a big rah rah guy. Does going to be 39 in 2 days Marleau really need a letter to be a leader? I doubt it. Plus you make sure to give the local, overpaid boy, Tavares who's been there a couple of months, a letter.

Matthews is not taking a discount, he is going to get at least McDavid money.


Babcock is old school. Matthews complained about his ice time last year, so he is not getting a leadership spot. He complained with good reason too. Not being allowed to be on the 1st PP unit probably costed him a 2M+ bonus because it kept him out of the top 10 in goals. He needed 5 more to get that bonus, which probably would have been possible if he got the tap to start every PP. Pretty clear what the leafs weer doing IMO, they didn't want the extra cap penalty if he got a schedule B bonus.

Get angry Matthews. Don't sign anything until you are RFA and check out the offer sheets :)

[Updated on: Thu, 13 September 2018 09:49]


"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: double post [message #718498 is a reply to message #718496 ]
Thu, 13 September 2018 10:05 Go to previous message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Thu, 13 September 2018 09:46

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 13 September 2018 09:41

According to Dreger, Babcock has decided that the Leafs will run A's on Marleau, Tavares and Rielly. You have your young, franchise center up for a new contract that will cost you a fortune who already has a bit of a strained relationship with your pompous coach. So much so that the coach had to go to Matthews house to meet with him to try and clear the air. If the organization had it in their mind to try to get him to take a little less to "go for it", way to start things off by letting your coach diss him by not giving him a letter. For whatever reason, letters matter to players. Probably would have meant a hell of a lot to a young player like Matthews even if he's not a big rah rah guy. Does going to be 39 in 2 days Marleau really need a letter to be a leader? I doubt it. Plus you make sure to give the local, overpaid boy, Tavares who's been there a couple of months, a letter.

Matthews is not taking a discount, he is going to get at least McDavid money.


Babcock is old school. Matthews complained about his ice time last year, so he is not getting a leadership spot. He complained with good reason too. Not being allowed to be on the 1st PP unit probably costed him a 2M+ bonus because it kept him out of the top 10 in goals. He needed 5 more to get that bonus, which probably would have been possible if he got the tap to start every PP. Pretty clear what the leafs weer doing IMO, they didn't want the extra cap penalty if he got a schedule B bonus.

Get angry Matthews. Don't sign anything until you are RFA and check out the offer sheets :)


I think Babcock is not doing the Leafs any favors with Matthews.



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