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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #716847 is a reply to message #716841 ]
Tue, 10 July 2018 09:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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PlusOne wrote on Tue, 10 July 2018 09:01

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 09 July 2018 23:23

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 09 July 2018 23:04

ryanc182 wrote on Mon, 09 July 2018 22:57

I think Karlsson, like Stamkos, would take less money to sign in Tampa. Without paying state taxes you don't need to make $11 million to be paid like your making $11 million in other markets. I could be wrong but Stamkos signing for $8.5 was the equivalent of Toronto giving him something like $12.

Tsn had a calculator on the differences in take home pay on identical $77 million dollar contracts when Tavares was deciding. The difference between markets was insane due to taxes.

Definitely becomes a deciding factor and certainly help the team manage their cap better when they can live in a beautiful, warm area, relatively normal life outside of the fishbowl and icing a super competitive team full of people still making "top dollar" without the huge AAV.


You are correct. It is a huge advantage for a few teams;

This is helpful; https://gavingroup.ca/nhl-tax-calculator/



Yeah, huge difference. I think the players still feel their responsibility to get this highest cap hit they can though. For pride and just to keep driving up wages and helping to keep pushing that cap up and try to keep on building the case that the players deserve a bigger piece of the pie if the escrow grows.


Yep, there is definitely something to the ego or drive to get the highest cap hit possible. If not there would be a super team of a bunch of buddy all stars playing for 3 mill a year!



We saw Kariya and Selanne do that. Both took discounts to go to Colorado. Selanne took a HUGE discount on a short deal. Unfortunately they made the mistake of saying they wanted to play together in their press conference, and their crappy coach at the time decided to point out that he made the lines, not the players...then he didn't ever play them together, put Selanne on the fourth line and said that when he started producing like a first line player (with 10 minutes of icetime with plugs) then he'd get moved up.

Should have been a pretty incredible team that year if they didn't have Tony Granato as their coach. Instead, 4th best in the West in the regular season, and then they fall to a pretty pedestrian looking San Jose team.

Sakic, Forsberg, Kariya, Selanne, Hejduk, Tanguay on forward. Blake, Liles, D. Morris, Foote on defence and Patrick Roy in goal. Only they flamed out in Round 2 that year. Worth noting, that was the only year that Tony Granato ever got a team out of the first round so maybe all that firepower did provide a lift.



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #716850 is a reply to message #716847 ]
Tue, 10 July 2018 09:26 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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Adam wrote on Tue, 10 July 2018 09:14

PlusOne wrote on Tue, 10 July 2018 09:01

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 09 July 2018 23:23

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 09 July 2018 23:04

ryanc182 wrote on Mon, 09 July 2018 22:57

I think Karlsson, like Stamkos, would take less money to sign in Tampa. Without paying state taxes you don't need to make $11 million to be paid like your making $11 million in other markets. I could be wrong but Stamkos signing for $8.5 was the equivalent of Toronto giving him something like $12.

Tsn had a calculator on the differences in take home pay on identical $77 million dollar contracts when Tavares was deciding. The difference between markets was insane due to taxes.

Definitely becomes a deciding factor and certainly help the team manage their cap better when they can live in a beautiful, warm area, relatively normal life outside of the fishbowl and icing a super competitive team full of people still making "top dollar" without the huge AAV.


You are correct. It is a huge advantage for a few teams;

This is helpful; https://gavingroup.ca/nhl-tax-calculator/



Yeah, huge difference. I think the players still feel their responsibility to get this highest cap hit they can though. For pride and just to keep driving up wages and helping to keep pushing that cap up and try to keep on building the case that the players deserve a bigger piece of the pie if the escrow grows.


Yep, there is definitely something to the ego or drive to get the highest cap hit possible. If not there would be a super team of a bunch of buddy all stars playing for 3 mill a year!



We saw Kariya and Selanne do that. Both took discounts to go to Colorado. Selanne took a HUGE discount on a short deal. Unfortunately they made the mistake of saying they wanted to play together in their press conference, and their crappy coach at the time decided to point out that he made the lines, not the players...then he didn't ever play them together, put Selanne on the fourth line and said that when he started producing like a first line player (with 10 minutes of icetime with plugs) then he'd get moved up.

Should have been a pretty incredible team that year if they didn't have Tony Granato as their coach. Instead, 4th best in the West in the regular season, and then they fall to a pretty pedestrian looking San Jose team.

Sakic, Forsberg, Kariya, Selanne, Hejduk, Tanguay on forward. Blake, Liles, D. Morris, Foote on defence and Patrick Roy in goal. Only they flamed out in Round 2 that year. Worth noting, that was the only year that Tony Granato ever got a team out of the first round so maybe all that firepower did provide a lift.



Ya, that was a heck of team.
Fun to watch most of the time. That was the last season before the lockout right?

Interesting that it was pre-cap and they didnt have to just outbid everyone for the top guys. Even harder to do now.



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #716855 is a reply to message #716850 ]
Tue, 10 July 2018 10:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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PlusOne wrote on Tue, 10 July 2018 09:26

Adam wrote on Tue, 10 July 2018 09:14

PlusOne wrote on Tue, 10 July 2018 09:01

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 09 July 2018 23:23

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 09 July 2018 23:04

ryanc182 wrote on Mon, 09 July 2018 22:57

I think Karlsson, like Stamkos, would take less money to sign in Tampa. Without paying state taxes you don't need to make $11 million to be paid like your making $11 million in other markets. I could be wrong but Stamkos signing for $8.5 was the equivalent of Toronto giving him something like $12.

Tsn had a calculator on the differences in take home pay on identical $77 million dollar contracts when Tavares was deciding. The difference between markets was insane due to taxes.

Definitely becomes a deciding factor and certainly help the team manage their cap better when they can live in a beautiful, warm area, relatively normal life outside of the fishbowl and icing a super competitive team full of people still making "top dollar" without the huge AAV.


You are correct. It is a huge advantage for a few teams;

This is helpful; https://gavingroup.ca/nhl-tax-calculator/



Yeah, huge difference. I think the players still feel their responsibility to get this highest cap hit they can though. For pride and just to keep driving up wages and helping to keep pushing that cap up and try to keep on building the case that the players deserve a bigger piece of the pie if the escrow grows.


Yep, there is definitely something to the ego or drive to get the highest cap hit possible. If not there would be a super team of a bunch of buddy all stars playing for 3 mill a year!



We saw Kariya and Selanne do that. Both took discounts to go to Colorado. Selanne took a HUGE discount on a short deal. Unfortunately they made the mistake of saying they wanted to play together in their press conference, and their crappy coach at the time decided to point out that he made the lines, not the players...then he didn't ever play them together, put Selanne on the fourth line and said that when he started producing like a first line player (with 10 minutes of icetime with plugs) then he'd get moved up.

Should have been a pretty incredible team that year if they didn't have Tony Granato as their coach. Instead, 4th best in the West in the regular season, and then they fall to a pretty pedestrian looking San Jose team.

Sakic, Forsberg, Kariya, Selanne, Hejduk, Tanguay on forward. Blake, Liles, D. Morris, Foote on defence and Patrick Roy in goal. Only they flamed out in Round 2 that year. Worth noting, that was the only year that Tony Granato ever got a team out of the first round so maybe all that firepower did provide a lift.



Ya, that was a heck of team.
Fun to watch most of the time. That was the last season before the lockout right?

Interesting that it was pre-cap and they didnt have to just outbid everyone for the top guys. Even harder to do now.


It was pretty crazy. I remember the announcement still.

Kariya coming off a $10MMx4years deal with Anaheim, Selanne had been with San Jose and made 8MM, 9.5MM and 6.5MM the prior three years.

Selanne signs for one year at $5.8MM, and Kariya one year at $1.2MM!!! They gave a huge break to the Avs in order to try to win a Cup. And considering they would have played Calgary had they won that third round, which was really just Iginla and a few guys riding hot hands, that should have been a cakewalk.



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #716835 is a reply to message #716826 ]
Tue, 10 July 2018 08:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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ryanc182 wrote on Mon, 09 July 2018 22:57

I think Karlsson, like Stamkos, would take less money to sign in Tampa. Without paying state taxes you don't need to make $11 million to be paid like your making $11 million in other markets. I could be wrong but Stamkos signing for $8.5 was the equivalent of Toronto giving him something like $12.

Tsn had a calculator on the differences in take home pay on identical $77 million dollar contracts when Tavares was deciding. The difference between markets was insane due to taxes.

Definitely becomes a deciding factor and certainly help the team manage their cap better when they can live in a beautiful, warm area, relatively normal life outside of the fishbowl and icing a super competitive team full of people still making "top dollar" without the huge AAV.


I just mentioned this exact topic when I started a Kucherov signing thread as he just signed for 9.5 mill per season but that equals 10.9 mill in Ontario, 11 mill in New York and 12 mill in California. That is a MASSIVE advantage. With Doughty signing for 11 mill cap hit, I am sure Karlsson will want the same take home pay. So that means you could give Karlsson a 9 mill per season deal but because of the taxes, he'd be taking home very similar or slightly more than Doughty. Everyone talks about how Yzerman is this great GM. I think he is a good GM BUT could part of it be just where his team is located? Yes players want to win but let's be real here, they are in it to make money and as much money as they can. If you asked a player if he had to choose between making lots of money or winning, I doubt too many would say winning if push came to shove. So all Yzerman has to do is show the player the math. "You can make 9.5 mill here which equals 12 in California but you take home the same money AND we have 2.5 mill in extra cap space to go get someone else to make us better."



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #716843 is a reply to message #716835 ]
Tue, 10 July 2018 09:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 10 July 2018 08:45

ryanc182 wrote on Mon, 09 July 2018 22:57

I think Karlsson, like Stamkos, would take less money to sign in Tampa. Without paying state taxes you don't need to make $11 million to be paid like your making $11 million in other markets. I could be wrong but Stamkos signing for $8.5 was the equivalent of Toronto giving him something like $12.

Tsn had a calculator on the differences in take home pay on identical $77 million dollar contracts when Tavares was deciding. The difference between markets was insane due to taxes.

Definitely becomes a deciding factor and certainly help the team manage their cap better when they can live in a beautiful, warm area, relatively normal life outside of the fishbowl and icing a super competitive team full of people still making "top dollar" without the huge AAV.


I just mentioned this exact topic when I started a Kucherov signing thread as he just signed for 9.5 mill per season but that equals 10.9 mill in Ontario, 11 mill in New York and 12 mill in California. That is a MASSIVE advantage. With Doughty signing for 11 mill cap hit, I am sure Karlsson will want the same take home pay. So that means you could give Karlsson a 9 mill per season deal but because of the taxes, he'd be taking home very similar or slightly more than Doughty. Everyone talks about how Yzerman is this great GM. I think he is a good GM BUT could part of it be just where his team is located? Yes players want to win but let's be real here, they are in it to make money and as much money as they can. If you asked a player if he had to choose between making lots of money or winning, I doubt too many would say winning if push came to shove. So all Yzerman has to do is show the player the math. "You can make 9.5 mill here which equals 12 in California but you take home the same money AND we have 2.5 mill in extra cap space to go get someone else to make us better."


Well, I think his team has clearly figured out to sell hard on that tax advantage. I would guess their presentation is designed to take the focus off the top line dollar and explaining to players (who's egos may want the highest top-line) that they're making more real money because the cash you ship to the government doesn't help you.

That's good work on their part. You take advantage of the edges that you have. If it's Tampa, you sell tax. If you're in Edmonton, you sell that guys can play with McDavid...and if we ever start having playoffs again, then you sell hard on the experience of a playoff run in Edmonton.



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #717946 is a reply to message #712684 ]
Fri, 24 August 2018 21:04 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Chris Nichols @NicholsOnHockey

Friedman/Karlsson: "I guess there was a report somewhere that Karlsson had said he wouldn't sign in Canada. He reached out this morning to say that that wasn't the case." CHED #Sens


Keep hope alive!



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-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #717948 is a reply to message #717946 ]
Fri, 24 August 2018 22:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Fri, 24 August 2018 21:04

Chris Nichols @NicholsOnHockey

Friedman/Karlsson: "I guess there was a report somewhere that Karlsson had said he wouldn't sign in Canada. He reached out this morning to say that that wasn't the case." CHED #Sens


Keep hope alive!

To me this is the agent saying "Tell people that isn't true so that desperate Canadian teams drive up the asking price"



You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find, you can get a lottery pick.


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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #717950 is a reply to message #717948 ]
Fri, 24 August 2018 22:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrudeRemarks wrote on Fri, 24 August 2018 22:34

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 24 August 2018 21:04

Chris Nichols @NicholsOnHockey

Friedman/Karlsson: "I guess there was a report somewhere that Karlsson had said he wouldn't sign in Canada. He reached out this morning to say that that wasn't the case." CHED #Sens


Keep hope alive!

To me this is the agent saying "Tell people that isn't true so that desperate Canadian teams drive up the asking price"


Chia, Bergevin, Benning. Those are definitely guys you want at the table making competing offers in any negotiation.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #717966 is a reply to message #717948 ]
Mon, 27 August 2018 08:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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CrudeRemarks wrote on Fri, 24 August 2018 22:34

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 24 August 2018 21:04

Chris Nichols @NicholsOnHockey

Friedman/Karlsson: "I guess there was a report somewhere that Karlsson had said he wouldn't sign in Canada. He reached out this morning to say that that wasn't the case." CHED #Sens


Keep hope alive!

To me this is the agent saying "Tell people that isn't true so that desperate Canadian teams drive up the asking price"

This is exactly correct. Karlsson is not signing in Canada.



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #717967 is a reply to message #717966 ]
Mon, 27 August 2018 08:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 08:36

CrudeRemarks wrote on Fri, 24 August 2018 22:34

Kr55 wrote on Fri, 24 August 2018 21:04

Chris Nichols @NicholsOnHockey

Friedman/Karlsson: "I guess there was a report somewhere that Karlsson had said he wouldn't sign in Canada. He reached out this morning to say that that wasn't the case." CHED #Sens


Keep hope alive!

To me this is the agent saying "Tell people that isn't true so that desperate Canadian teams drive up the asking price"

This is exactly correct. Karlsson is not signing in Canada.


I expect it depends on the situation for Karlsson. He's at an age where he wants to win. He's going to make lots and lots of money no matter where he plays. I can absolutely believe that he's not ruling out Canada based on geography. That said, there are some other compelling reasons not to go to most Canadian teams:

Vancouver - gong show, run by incompetent GM, currently in a rebuild.
Calgary - Always a bubble team, never a contender. Don't really have the pieces.
Edmonton - 20-year gong show, run by a group of incompetent GMs, always in a perma-rebuild, no sense that they're doing anything wrong even as they repeatedly fail. Also, cap-strapped.
Winnipeg - good team with cap space to spare - but always on a budget, and with three good right shot defencemen already.
Toronto - good team with cap space who could probably use a star right shot defenceman...Issues will come from Matthews' next deal and from Ottawa's reluctance to trade with Toronto on a deal like this that would undoubtedly haunt them.
Montreal - gong show, run by incompetent GM, currently in a rebuild, lots of right-shot defencemen already including Weber.

Toronto would probably be the best fit, but they're the one that would be the toughest to swallow for Ottawa fans. Most of the rest of the Canadian squads just wouldn't be appealing for reasons that have nothing to do with the fans or the weather.

Side note: Amazing that Canada's two best teams - Toronto & Winnipeg - also have the most cap space. Edmonton has the least, in case you were wondering.



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #717968 is a reply to message #717967 ]
Mon, 27 August 2018 09:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 08:55


Side note: Amazing that Canada's two best teams - Toronto & Winnipeg - also have the most cap space. Edmonton has the least, in case you were wondering.


That's just the price you have to pay for....wait...what did we get?



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #717970 is a reply to message #717968 ]
Mon, 27 August 2018 10:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 09:06

Adam wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 08:55


Side note: Amazing that Canada's two best teams - Toronto & Winnipeg - also have the most cap space. Edmonton has the least, in case you were wondering.


That's just the price you have to pay for....wait...what did we get?

Hey, setting the market on salaries is an accomplishment isn't it? Give it a couple years and all these overpays will look just fine!



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #717989 is a reply to message #717967 ]
Mon, 27 August 2018 13:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 08:55



Side note: Amazing that Canada's two best teams - Toronto & Winnipeg - also have the most cap space. Edmonton has the least, in case you were wondering.


Uh huh, and when Matthews ($11-$12 million), Marner ($9 million) and Nylander ($7 million) get signed before next season, how much is left?

or when Wheeler, Laine, Conner, Trouba, and Myers are signed before next season, how much is left?

Both teams (Nate Horton and Brian Little) have worse contracts than Lucic, but ya, just run down the Oilers some more and play up other teams. I know it fits your narrative



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #717990 is a reply to message #717989 ]
Mon, 27 August 2018 13:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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NetBOG wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:40

Adam wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 08:55



Side note: Amazing that Canada's two best teams - Toronto & Winnipeg - also have the most cap space. Edmonton has the least, in case you were wondering.


Uh huh, and when Matthews ($11-$12 million), Marner ($9 million) and Nylander ($7 million) get signed before next season, how much is left?

or when Wheeler, Laine, Conner, Trouba, and Myers are signed before next season, how much is left?

Both teams (Nate Horton and Brian Little) have worse contracts than Lucic, but ya, just run down the Oilers some more and play up other teams. I know it fits your narrative


Man I hope those Leafs contracts end up being the case.

So much crap out there now about the leafs. Saw an article recently that was titled something like, "Leafs are the smartest team in the league and it's just starting to feel like the normal". huh?

I think the leafs have potential for their failures to be even more satisfying than the failure of the Canucks dynasty. Assuming the leafs fail of course :)



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
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- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #717991 is a reply to message #717990 ]
Mon, 27 August 2018 13:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:43


Man I hope those Leafs contracts end up being the case.

So much crap out there now about the leafs. Saw an article recently that was titled something like, "Leafs are the smartest team in the league and it's just starting to feel like the normal". huh?

I think the leafs have potential for their failures to be even more satisfying than the failure of the Canucks dynasty. Assuming the leafs fail of course :)


I'm not saying they all aren't great players or they aren't worth it. They probably are. All I'm saying is every team has to pay players what they are worth and every team has bad contracts. Nobody should pretend otherwise.



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #717992 is a reply to message #717991 ]
Mon, 27 August 2018 13:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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NetBOG wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:47

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:43


Man I hope those Leafs contracts end up being the case.

So much crap out there now about the leafs. Saw an article recently that was titled something like, "Leafs are the smartest team in the league and it's just starting to feel like the normal". huh?

I think the leafs have potential for their failures to be even more satisfying than the failure of the Canucks dynasty. Assuming the leafs fail of course :)


I'm not saying they all aren't great players or they aren't worth it. They probably are. All I'm saying is every team has to pay players what they are worth and every team has bad contracts. Nobody should pretend otherwise.


I think the degrees of badness is a worthy debate though. And I think Chia is ahead of most guys in terms of accumulating bad cap hits. I'm annoyed that the leafs were able to find a taker for that bum Matt martin. But I guess the taker was actually the guy that originally signed him.



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-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


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- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #717993 is a reply to message #717991 ]
Mon, 27 August 2018 13:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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NetBOG wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:47

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:43


Man I hope those Leafs contracts end up being the case.

So much crap out there now about the leafs. Saw an article recently that was titled something like, "Leafs are the smartest team in the league and it's just starting to feel like the normal". huh?

I think the leafs have potential for their failures to be even more satisfying than the failure of the Canucks dynasty. Assuming the leafs fail of course :)


I'm not saying they all aren't great players or they aren't worth it. They probably are. All I'm saying is every team has to pay players what they are worth and every team has bad contracts. Nobody should pretend otherwise.


Yep - they're going to have some issues in the future too...but right now, they have lots of cap room and teams that look objectively better than the Oilers - for less money. I don't think that's much of an agenda-based comment - it's literally the truth:

With the roster at 22 players, the Oilers have $3.9MM cap space. They need to sign Nurse still.

With 21 players signed to the roster, the Leafs have $13.3MM free. Nylander awaits a contract and they'll need one more depth piece.

The Jets have to yet sign Morrisey and a depth forward, but with the roster at 21, they have $10.2MM cap space.

What order would you expect those three teams to finish the 2018-19 season?



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #718005 is a reply to message #717993 ]
Tue, 28 August 2018 08:16 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Adam wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:58

NetBOG wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:47

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:43


Man I hope those Leafs contracts end up being the case.

So much crap out there now about the leafs. Saw an article recently that was titled something like, "Leafs are the smartest team in the league and it's just starting to feel like the normal". huh?

I think the leafs have potential for their failures to be even more satisfying than the failure of the Canucks dynasty. Assuming the leafs fail of course :)


I'm not saying they all aren't great players or they aren't worth it. They probably are. All I'm saying is every team has to pay players what they are worth and every team has bad contracts. Nobody should pretend otherwise.


Yep - they're going to have some issues in the future too...but right now, they have lots of cap room and teams that look objectively better than the Oilers - for less money. I don't think that's much of an agenda-based comment - it's literally the truth:

With the roster at 22 players, the Oilers have $3.9MM cap space. They need to sign Nurse still.

With 21 players signed to the roster, the Leafs have $13.3MM free. Nylander awaits a contract and they'll need one more depth piece.

The Jets have to yet sign Morrisey and a depth forward, but with the roster at 21, they have $10.2MM cap space.

What order would you expect those three teams to finish the 2018-19 season?


In my opinion, the Jets and Leafs are slightly behind the Oilers in terms of having to sign their key guys. After this season, the Jets will have to make a decision on:
Wheeler who is a UFA at the end of this season, their captain and at 5.6 mill has been underpaid for what he has been doing for them over the last several seasons.
Myers is a UFA and has been one of their better dmen. He's coming off making 5.5 mill.
Laine is finishing his entry level, scored 44 goals last year and will easily get over 40 again. I have to think he is worth at least 10 mill.
Connor is finishing his entry level, scored 31 goals last year. I would assume he will score high 20's at least. What will he make 6, 7?
Trouba just signed for 1 yr, 5.5 mill. They need to make a decision. He probably makes 6.5-7 on a longer term deal minimum.

So you have to assume Laine & Connor will be signed. So maybe 16 combined. They probably make a decision on keeping one of Myers or Trouba. Myers comes in a bit cheaper at 6-6.5 most likely. Trouba pushes over 7 I think. Conservatively, let's say one of 6.5 for 1 of them. SO now they are at 22.5 mill. Then they have to make a call on Wheeler. How do you let your captain go? Maybe he takes a massive discount to get a few more years so they sign him for a smallish raise and get him to 7 mill. If they let him go, you need a replacement for him and a replacement probably costs you 6-7. So realistically, they could be adding close to 30 mill next season on maybe 4 players, all of a sudden their cap space doesn't look so hot. I just listed the good players, I haven't mentioned the 3rd & 4th liners and 3rd pairing dmen who you need to fill out the roster.

The Leafs are the same. Leafs got Nylander they haven't signed yet. He will easily make over 6.
Next season they have:
Matthews who will easily make 11, maybe more.
Marner who will make 7-8 easily.
Gardiner will be a UFA and is making 4.05 mill which is underpaid. Gardiner had 52 pts last year. Their defense already isn't that great, if you let him walk you have to get someone else as good or better. You aren't getting someone even as good for 4 mill. Carlsson just got 8 from the Caps. What does a comparable dman to Gardiner make 6-7?

Not to mention, they have to resign a bunch of other guys who fill out the rest of their lines and d pairings. So again, the Leafs are in a great position today but they haven't had to sign anyone good yet. They will still have another year of Marleau at 6.25 after next season, plus they have 11 mill of Tavares who I still think is a huge mistake because he will be making that much and will probably end up being their 3 or 4th best player. Matthews and Marner will for sure be ahead of him even next year and Rielly will probably be as well.

[Updated on: Tue, 28 August 2018 08:22]


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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #718007 is a reply to message #718005 ]
Tue, 28 August 2018 08:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 28 August 2018 08:16

Adam wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:58

NetBOG wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:47

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:43


Man I hope those Leafs contracts end up being the case.

So much crap out there now about the leafs. Saw an article recently that was titled something like, "Leafs are the smartest team in the league and it's just starting to feel like the normal". huh?

I think the leafs have potential for their failures to be even more satisfying than the failure of the Canucks dynasty. Assuming the leafs fail of course :)


I'm not saying they all aren't great players or they aren't worth it. They probably are. All I'm saying is every team has to pay players what they are worth and every team has bad contracts. Nobody should pretend otherwise.


Yep - they're going to have some issues in the future too...but right now, they have lots of cap room and teams that look objectively better than the Oilers - for less money. I don't think that's much of an agenda-based comment - it's literally the truth:

With the roster at 22 players, the Oilers have $3.9MM cap space. They need to sign Nurse still.

With 21 players signed to the roster, the Leafs have $13.3MM free. Nylander awaits a contract and they'll need one more depth piece.

The Jets have to yet sign Morrisey and a depth forward, but with the roster at 21, they have $10.2MM cap space.

What order would you expect those three teams to finish the 2018-19 season?


In my opinion, the Jets and Leafs are slightly behind the Oilers in terms of having to sign their key guys. After this season, the Jets will have to make a decision on:
Wheeler who is a UFA at the end of this season, their captain and at 5.6 mill has been underpaid for what he has been doing for them over the last several seasons.
Myers is a UFA and has been one of their better dmen. He's coming off making 5.5 mill.
Laine is finishing his entry level, scored 44 goals last year and will easily get over 40 again. I have to think he is worth at least 10 mill.
Connor is finishing his entry level, scored 31 goals last year. I would assume he will score high 20's at least. What will he make 6, 7?
Trouba just signed for 1 yr, 5.5 mill. They need to make a decision. He probably makes 6.5-7 on a longer term deal minimum.

So you have to assume Laine & Connor will be signed. So maybe 16 combined. They probably make a decision on keeping one of Myers or Trouba. Myers comes in a bit cheaper at 6-6.5 most likely. Trouba pushes over 7 I think. Conservatively, let's say one of 6.5 for 1 of them. SO now they are at 22.5 mill. Then they have to make a call on Wheeler. How do you let your captain go? Maybe he takes a massive discount to get a few more years so they sign him for a smallish raise and get him to 7 mill. If they let him go, you need a replacement for him and a replacement probably costs you 6-7. So realistically, they could be adding close to 30 mill next season on maybe 4 players, all of a sudden their cap space doesn't look so hot.

The Leafs are the same. Leafs got Nylander they haven't signed yet. He will easily make over 6.
Next season they have:
Matthews who will easily make 11, maybe more.
Marner who will make 7-8 easily.
Gardiner will be a UFA and is making 4.05 mill which is underpaid. Gardiner had 52 pts last year. Their defense already isn't that great, if you let him walk you have to get someone else as good or better. You aren't getting someone even as good for 4 mill. Carlsson just got 8 from the Caps. What does a comparable dman to Gardiner make 6-7?

So again, the Leafs are in a great position but they haven't had to sign anyone good yet.


Seems like a careful dodge. In what order do you expect those three teams to finish this year?



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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #718009 is a reply to message #718007 ]
Tue, 28 August 2018 08:47 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Adam wrote on Tue, 28 August 2018 08:22

RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 28 August 2018 08:16

Adam wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:58

NetBOG wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:47

Kr55 wrote on Mon, 27 August 2018 13:43


Man I hope those Leafs contracts end up being the case.

So much crap out there now about the leafs. Saw an article recently that was titled something like, "Leafs are the smartest team in the league and it's just starting to feel like the normal". huh?

I think the leafs have potential for their failures to be even more satisfying than the failure of the Canucks dynasty. Assuming the leafs fail of course :)


I'm not saying they all aren't great players or they aren't worth it. They probably are. All I'm saying is every team has to pay players what they are worth and every team has bad contracts. Nobody should pretend otherwise.


Yep - they're going to have some issues in the future too...but right now, they have lots of cap room and teams that look objectively better than the Oilers - for less money. I don't think that's much of an agenda-based comment - it's literally the truth:

With the roster at 22 players, the Oilers have $3.9MM cap space. They need to sign Nurse still.

With 21 players signed to the roster, the Leafs have $13.3MM free. Nylander awaits a contract and they'll need one more depth piece.

The Jets have to yet sign Morrisey and a depth forward, but with the roster at 21, they have $10.2MM cap space.

What order would you expect those three teams to finish the 2018-19 season?


In my opinion, the Jets and Leafs are slightly behind the Oilers in terms of having to sign their key guys. After this season, the Jets will have to make a decision on:
Wheeler who is a UFA at the end of this season, their captain and at 5.6 mill has been underpaid for what he has been doing for them over the last several seasons.
Myers is a UFA and has been one of their better dmen. He's coming off making 5.5 mill.
Laine is finishing his entry level, scored 44 goals last year and will easily get over 40 again. I have to think he is worth at least 10 mill.
Connor is finishing his entry level, scored 31 goals last year. I would assume he will score high 20's at least. What will he make 6, 7?
Trouba just signed for 1 yr, 5.5 mill. They need to make a decision. He probably makes 6.5-7 on a longer term deal minimum.

So you have to assume Laine & Connor will be signed. So maybe 16 combined. They probably make a decision on keeping one of Myers or Trouba. Myers comes in a bit cheaper at 6-6.5 most likely. Trouba pushes over 7 I think. Conservatively, let's say one of 6.5 for 1 of them. SO now they are at 22.5 mill. Then they have to make a call on Wheeler. How do you let your captain go? Maybe he takes a massive discount to get a few more years so they sign him for a smallish raise and get him to 7 mill. If they let him go, you need a replacement for him and a replacement probably costs you 6-7. So realistically, they could be adding close to 30 mill next season on maybe 4 players, all of a sudden their cap space doesn't look so hot.

The Leafs are the same. Leafs got Nylander they haven't signed yet. He will easily make over 6.
Next season they have:
Matthews who will easily make 11, maybe more.
Marner who will make 7-8 easily.
Gardiner will be a UFA and is making 4.05 mill which is underpaid. Gardiner had 52 pts last year. Their defense already isn't that great, if you let him walk you have to get someone else as good or better. You aren't getting someone even as good for 4 mill. Carlsson just got 8 from the Caps. What does a comparable dman to Gardiner make 6-7?

So again, the Leafs are in a great position but they haven't had to sign anyone good yet.


Seems like a careful dodge. In what order do you expect those three teams to finish this year?


I expect the Jets to finish up there in the Central assuming Hellebuyk doesn't fall off. Given how crappy their division is with Montreal, Detroit, Ottawa, potentially Buffalo, I expect the Leafs to be in 3rd again like last year. They have multiple free spaces on their bingo card to rack up the wins.

My post is not a dodge man. In my opinion, the Leafs and Jets are getting WAY better value from guys they had previously signed before they got their young player. Schiefele is making barely over 6 mill. The guy is an absolute stud. Ehlers makes 6 mill. I would take both of those guys any day over Nuge and Eberle. I like Nuge a lot, he's not even close to Schiefele and he makes almost the same money. The Leafs had Van Riemsdyk and Kadri who where both making less than Eberle and Nuge and are both way better players. Kadri had back to back 30+ goal seasons and he makes 4.5 mill. Van Riemsdyk was making 4.25 mill and they got 36, 29, 27, 14 in 40 games, 27, 30 goals. That is crazy numbers for low end money. The Oilers were paying Hall, Eberle & Nuge all 6 mill and getting similar or LESS production.

I get the Lucic contract sucks, it was a mistake. NO doubt about it. But before Lucic was an Oiler, doesn't change the fact that the Oilers were paying other guys more money to get less that what the Jets and Leafs were getting.

[Updated on: Tue, 28 August 2018 08:49]


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 Re: Draisaitl for Karlsson [message #718015 is a reply to message #718009 ]
Tue, 28 August 2018 09:51 Go to previous message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 28 August 2018 08:47


I expect the Jets to finish up there in the Central assuming Hellebuyk doesn't fall off. Given how crappy their division is with Montreal, Detroit, Ottawa, potentially Buffalo, I expect the Leafs to be in 3rd again like last year. They have multiple free spaces on their bingo card to rack up the wins.

My post is not a dodge man. In my opinion, the Leafs and Jets are getting WAY better value from guys they had previously signed before they got their young player. Schiefele is making barely over 6 mill. The guy is an absolute stud. Ehlers makes 6 mill. I would take both of those guys any day over Nuge and Eberle. I like Nuge a lot, he's not even close to Schiefele and he makes almost the same money. The Leafs had Van Riemsdyk and Kadri who where both making less than Eberle and Nuge and are both way better players. Kadri had back to back 30+ goal seasons and he makes 4.5 mill. Van Riemsdyk was making 4.25 mill and they got 36, 29, 27, 14 in 40 games, 27, 30 goals. That is crazy numbers for low end money. The Oilers were paying Hall, Eberle & Nuge all 6 mill and getting similar or LESS production.

I get the Lucic contract sucks, it was a mistake. NO doubt about it. But before Lucic was an Oiler, doesn't change the fact that the Oilers were paying other guys more money to get less that what the Jets and Leafs were getting.


I didn't talk about Lucic. I said that the Leafs and Jets have much more cap space this year and will likely finish significantly better than the Oilers, while paying significantly less for their team.

It's fine to say that this is all timing, and it'll balance out when the Leafs and Jets have their next round of contracts come up, but that ignores that the Oilers have been a cap team for every year of the Katz era except for last (thanks to the Eberle & Pouliot fiascos), and have managed one playoff appearance in all that time.

Is there anyone who doesn't think that the Leafs and Jets are better THIS YEAR, despite spending less on their team THIS YEAR?



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