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 Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696396]
Sat, 24 June 2017 18:52 Go to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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Total AAV Cost of McDavid/Drai[ 67 vote(s) ]
1.Under 16M 3 / 4%
2.16-17.99M 12 / 18%
3.18-19.99M 19 / 28%
4.20-21.99M 25 / 37%
5.22-24M 6 / 9%
6.More than 24M 2 / 3%

So, probably the most important pair of contracts that will determine the potential and longevity of the Oilers cup contention window. What are these 2 guys gonna cost us for the next 5+ years in cap hit?

Thinking 16M is probably the low end. Stauffer said 24M, so I'd consider that the high end (if that happens, FIRE CHIA!!!!!).

What's everyone thinking?


Would have just put this in the existing thread, but polls inside threads don't get many results usually.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696397 is a reply to message #696396 ]
Sat, 24 June 2017 18:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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$14M for McDavid.

$8.5M for Draisaitl.

$22.5M for both.

McDavid is worth that in NHL dollars. Draisaitl... maybe. But I wish we had a longer sample size before committing long-term for that much.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696398 is a reply to message #696396 ]
Sat, 24 June 2017 19:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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If those 2 come in at $24M this team is in serious trouble.

$14M for McDavid maybe justifiable. But $10M for Drai seems nuts. His numbers away from McDavid last year were...not good. He showed well in the playoffs but I'd like to see that for more than a handful of games before I gave him White Mamba money.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696399 is a reply to message #696398 ]
Sat, 24 June 2017 19:11 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Mike  is currently offline Mike
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Goose wrote on Sat, 24 June 2017 22:00

If those 2 come in at $24M this team is in serious trouble.

$14M for McDavid maybe justifiable. But $10M for Drai seems nuts. His numbers away from McDavid last year were...not good. He showed well in the playoffs but I'd like to see that for more than a handful of games before I gave him White Mamba money.


In a vacuum McDavid is worth $14M. But if he gets that, it's gonna be hard to surround him with a winning team.

As for Draisaitl - like you say, he had a good half season. I personally believe he will continue to be good, but if he's asking for $8M+ right now, I say do a bridge deal and revisit in a few years - I can't see any scenario that he produces enough to propel his worth too far North of $8M. And if he does, well we will likely have had a few pretty awesome years.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696400 is a reply to message #696399 ]
Sat, 24 June 2017 20:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Gator21  is currently offline Gator21
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Given what Gaudreau and Monahan signed for (who put up points more consistently than Draisaitl has done before signing their deals) any north of $7M seems foolish to me. I think $6.5 would be appropriate. We've made the mistake of signing players coming off a good season before without being able to repeat the the results...Eberle, RNH. I'm personally in favor of a bridge deal for Draisaitl. Make him earn it, keep him hungry and see if he's really as good as we think he is and not just a flash in a pan.


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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696402 is a reply to message #696400 ]
Sat, 24 June 2017 21:48 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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Gator21 wrote on Sat, 24 June 2017 20:59

Given what Gaudreau and Monahan signed for (who put up points more consistently than Draisaitl has done before signing their deals) any north of $7M seems foolish to me. I think $6.5 would be appropriate. We've made the mistake of signing players coming off a good season before without being able to repeat the the results...Eberle, RNH. I'm personally in favor of a bridge deal for Draisaitl. Make him earn it, keep him hungry and see if he's really as good as we think he is and not just a flash in a pan.


Yeah, I think if Drai is demanding >7.5M long term, you do a bridge around 5-6M, and you tell McLellan you want Drai playing #2C as much as possible so he can earn it.

There is no reason at all to pay him already like he's already prime Malkin. If he has an amazing couple years behind McDavid, OK, fine, big payday. The finish line should not be had right now for Drai.

[Updated on: Sat, 24 June 2017 21:50]


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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696405 is a reply to message #696402 ]
Sat, 24 June 2017 23:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Kr55 wrote on Sat, 24 June 2017 21:48

Gator21 wrote on Sat, 24 June 2017 20:59

Given what Gaudreau and Monahan signed for (who put up points more consistently than Draisaitl has done before signing their deals) any north of $7M seems foolish to me. I think $6.5 would be appropriate. We've made the mistake of signing players coming off a good season before without being able to repeat the the results...Eberle, RNH. I'm personally in favor of a bridge deal for Draisaitl. Make him earn it, keep him hungry and see if he's really as good as we think he is and not just a flash in a pan.


Yeah, I think if Drai is demanding >7.5M long term, you do a bridge around 5-6M, and you tell McLellan you want Drai playing #2C as much as possible so he can earn it.

There is no reason at all to pay him already like he's already prime Malkin. If he has an amazing couple years behind McDavid, OK, fine, big payday. The finish line should not be had right now for Drai.


What do you do with an offer sheet then? Say, $9MM per season?



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696413 is a reply to message #696405 ]
Sun, 25 June 2017 09:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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Adam wrote on Sat, 24 June 2017 23:27

Kr55 wrote on Sat, 24 June 2017 21:48

Gator21 wrote on Sat, 24 June 2017 20:59

Given what Gaudreau and Monahan signed for (who put up points more consistently than Draisaitl has done before signing their deals) any north of $7M seems foolish to me. I think $6.5 would be appropriate. We've made the mistake of signing players coming off a good season before without being able to repeat the the results...Eberle, RNH. I'm personally in favor of a bridge deal for Draisaitl. Make him earn it, keep him hungry and see if he's really as good as we think he is and not just a flash in a pan.


Yeah, I think if Drai is demanding >7.5M long term, you do a bridge around 5-6M, and you tell McLellan you want Drai playing #2C as much as possible so he can earn it.

There is no reason at all to pay him already like he's already prime Malkin. If he has an amazing couple years behind McDavid, OK, fine, big payday. The finish line should not be had right now for Drai.


What do you do with an offer sheet then? Say, $9MM per season?


First, send a letter with anthrax in it to the GM that made the offer sheet.

Then, take it as a sign that Drai is not that interested in being a part of what the team is building around McDavid, if he's just going off on his own and signing an offer sheet without first taking it to the table with Chia to negotiate. Probably have no choice but to just match to start. If he isn't blowing the doors off next season and earning it, probably have to figure out a way to unload him.

That's nuts that the 4 1st overalls takes a ~9.8M AAV deal. What the heck happened there? That seems stupid high.

In any case, there has been 2 offer sheets signed since 2010. Not too worried. I think Drai legitimately wants to be a part of this team and wouldn't want to be "that guy" in the room. Most teams have to go on a firesale to even have room to make an offersheet as well. Not sure Drai is really worth ripping your team apart to massively overpay him.

[Updated on: Sun, 25 June 2017 10:30]


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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696743 is a reply to message #696396 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 07:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
spoonful  is currently offline spoonful
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Friedman tweeted this morning:

Further to @TSNRyanRishaug McDavid mention, hearing deal will be around $13.25M for 8 yrs. Big win for EDM to get that term, as opposed to 5



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696745 is a reply to message #696743 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 08:00 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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spoonful wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 07:54

Friedman tweeted this morning:

Further to @TSNRyanRishaug McDavid mention, hearing deal will be around $13.25M for 8 yrs. Big win for EDM to get that term, as opposed to 5



Looking like 20-22 range will be how it turns out. Unless they bridge Drai.



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"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696746 is a reply to message #696745 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 08:04 Go to previous messageGo to next message
spoonful  is currently offline spoonful
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 08:00

spoonful wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 07:54

Friedman tweeted this morning:

Further to @TSNRyanRishaug McDavid mention, hearing deal will be around $13.25M for 8 yrs. Big win for EDM to get that term, as opposed to 5



Looking like 20-22 range will be how it turns out. Unless they bridge Drai.


I can live with 20 to 22, but if Draisatl is looking for $10M then bridge is definitely the way to go. (only say that number based on the Stauffer $24M guess for both)



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696748 is a reply to message #696396 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 08:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
rivid  is currently offline rivid
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Many will not like this but, if Mcdavid wants 14 million you have to trade him. Think of it like the Lindros trade. You would be able to get such a great return that the team should be able to compete even better for the Stanley cup. This would not just be draft picks but already very skilled players on someone's team. To me 14 million just cripples what you can do in the building process.


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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696753 is a reply to message #696748 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 08:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
oilerfan79  is currently offline oilerfan79
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You never trade that type of player. Those types of deals are long in the past, Toronto isn't giving up Matthews plus 6 other good players for McDavid. He is the best player in the world at 20 years old, he will continue to get better for probably the next 7 or 8 years. In 4 years his 14 million will seem like a steal just like Crosby's first, it was a lot of money back then but the cap kept going up, it's a steal now.


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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696754 is a reply to message #696748 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 08:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG  is currently offline NetBOG
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rivid wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 08:12

Many will not like this but, if Mcdavid wants 14 million you have to trade him. Think of it like the Lindros trade. You would be able to get such a great return that the team should be able to compete even better for the Stanley cup. This would not just be draft picks but already very skilled players on someone's team. To me 14 million just cripples what you can do in the building process.


Nope, if it's 14 he wants, it's 14 he gets. Then you publicly state that $8 million is your limit for any other pieces. If you lose guys from that point on, McDavid has to wear that and answer all questions as to why that is.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696755 is a reply to message #696748 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 08:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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rivid wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 08:12

Many will not like this but, if Mcdavid wants 14 million you have to trade him. Think of it like the Lindros trade. You would be able to get such a great return that the team should be able to compete even better for the Stanley cup. This would not just be draft picks but already very skilled players on someone's team. To me 14 million just cripples what you can do in the building process.


How many of the most elite players have we seen traded at the top of their games? The haul for Lindros for Quebec was enormous, but it would be almost impossible to make that trade again today. The salary cap implications of a six+draft picks+money for one deal would be ridiculous to manage.

And it's not like that return has been often duplicated:

He was still over a point per game player when dealt to the Rangers and the Flyers got back Jan Hlavac, Kim Johnsson, Pavel Brendl and a 3rd round pick.

Jagr was coming off a 121 point season when the Penguins traded him to the Capitals. The return: Kris Beech, Ross Lupaschuk and Michal Sivek (Frank Kucera also went to the Caps).

How about the Gretzky trades? To Los Angeles with Krushelnyski & McSorley for Carson, Gelinas, three first round picks and cash. To St. Louis for Patrice Tardif, Craig Johnson, Roman Vopat a 1st rd pick and a 5th.

Marcel Dionne? From Detroit to LA with Bart Crashley for Terry Harper, Dan Maloney and a 2nd round pick.

It's actually pretty rare that you get fair value for your money when you trade a superstar player.

McDavid is the best player in the game and can win some games almost single-handedly. Unfortunately, it means that the Oilers have no leverage at all in the negotiations and anything less than the maximum salary that he agrees to is basically a bonus to the team. If he's asking for that much, then you sign him for as long as you can, and hope like hell that the cap escalates quickly.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696760 is a reply to message #696755 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 08:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Well 13.25mill if that is what it ends up being is HIGHER than I would like but in the end 8 yrs of McDavid is a win for the Oilers. I think his average went up by 1.5-2 mill as soon as he won all 3 trophies at 20. I hope the cap keeps going up.


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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696806 is a reply to message #696760 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 12:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
bigEfromGP  is currently offline bigEfromGP
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Just for some comparision....

Crosby 1st contract ($9.7MM/avg, 5 year, 48.5 million signed June 2007) results in his contract being 22% of a teams cap that year [EDIT: $8.7MM, 5 year, 43.5 million which is 20% of the 2006 NHL season cap (technically when he signed) and 17% of the 2007 season cap)] . By the end of that contract, it shrunk to 15%.

His second contract ($8.7MM/avg, 12 year, 104.4 million signed June 2012) resulted in his contract being 12% of the teams cap. Currently it's just under 12% of the teams cap ($73MM) for the upcoming season.

McDavid's rumoured contract will be 18% of the team's cap. So, provided the cap grows as it has or better, by the end of this contract it will be an absolute steal.

[Updated on: Wed, 28 June 2017 15:28]


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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696808 is a reply to message #696806 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 12:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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bigEfromGP wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 12:10

Just for some comparision....

Crosby 1st contract ($9.7MM/avg, 5 year, 48.5 million signed June 2007) results in his contract being 22% of a teams cap that year. By the end of that contract, it shrunk to 15%.

His second contract ($8.7MM/avg, 12 year, 104.4 million signed June 2012) resulted in his contract being 12% of the teams cap. Currently it's just under 12% of the teams cap ($73MM) for the upcoming season.

McDavid's rumoured contract will be 18% of the team's cap. So, provided the cap grows as it has or better, by the end of this contract it will be an absolute steal.



I believe your numbers are a little off. Single player contracts can't be more than 20% of the team cap as per the CBA.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696809 is a reply to message #696808 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 12:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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Adam wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 11:23

bigEfromGP wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 12:10

Just for some comparision....

Crosby 1st contract ($9.7MM/avg, 5 year, 48.5 million signed June 2007) results in his contract being 22% of a teams cap that year. By the end of that contract, it shrunk to 15%.

His second contract ($8.7MM/avg, 12 year, 104.4 million signed June 2012) resulted in his contract being 12% of the teams cap. Currently it's just under 12% of the teams cap ($73MM) for the upcoming season.

McDavid's rumoured contract will be 18% of the team's cap. So, provided the cap grows as it has or better, by the end of this contract it will be an absolute steal.



I believe your numbers are a little off. Single player contracts can't be more than 20% of the team cap as per the CBA.


According to CapFriendly, both of Sid's post-ELC contracts have been for $8.7M AAV

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/sidney-crosby



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696815 is a reply to message #696809 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 12:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Goose wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 12:30

Adam wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 11:23

bigEfromGP wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 12:10

Just for some comparision....

Crosby 1st contract ($9.7MM/avg, 5 year, 48.5 million signed June 2007) results in his contract being 22% of a teams cap that year. By the end of that contract, it shrunk to 15%.

His second contract ($8.7MM/avg, 12 year, 104.4 million signed June 2012) resulted in his contract being 12% of the teams cap. Currently it's just under 12% of the teams cap ($73MM) for the upcoming season.

McDavid's rumoured contract will be 18% of the team's cap. So, provided the cap grows as it has or better, by the end of this contract it will be an absolute steal.



I believe your numbers are a little off. Single player contracts can't be more than 20% of the team cap as per the CBA.


According to CapFriendly, both of Sid's post-ELC contracts have been for $8.7M AAV

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/sidney-crosby


Yes they were. I think the cap when the first was signed was 50.8 or thereabouts.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696816 is a reply to message #696815 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 13:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NZ Oiler Fan  is currently offline NZ Oiler Fan
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McGuire saying that teams WILL offer sheet Drai if the rumoured 13.25 contract is true. At what point do you just take the picks and walk away? 9m?

edit for linkage: http://www.tsn.ca/video/mcguire-teams-will-offer-sheet-drais aitl-if-mcdavid-makes-13-25m%7E1156535



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696817 is a reply to message #696816 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 13:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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NZ Oiler Fan wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 13:01

McGuire saying that teams WILL offer sheet Drai if the rumoured 13.25 contract is true. At what point do you just take the picks and walk away? 9m?

edit for linkage: http://www.tsn.ca/video/mcguire-teams-will-offer-sheet-drais aitl-if-mcdavid-makes-13-25m%7E1156535


Is Pierre really that plugged in? And just because teams send offersheets to Draisaitl, doesn't mean he has to sign them.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696818 is a reply to message #696817 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 13:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NetBOG  is currently offline NetBOG
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Adam wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 13:03

NZ Oiler Fan wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 13:01

McGuire saying that teams WILL offer sheet Drai if the rumoured 13.25 contract is true. At what point do you just take the picks and walk away? 9m?

edit for linkage: http://www.tsn.ca/video/mcguire-teams-will-offer-sheet-drais aitl-if-mcdavid-makes-13-25m%7E1156535


Is Pierre really that plugged in? And just because teams send offersheets to Draisaitl, doesn't mean he has to sign them.


The magic numbers are really $7.85 million and $9.81 million

Anything under that, Oilers will gladly match.
Between those two numbers, the compensation is 2x1st + 2nd + 3rd
Above the top number, compensation is 4x1st

Team has to have the next years picks available and they have to be their own. Unfortunately, most teams have these picks still. Except stupid Calgary. Because it's all 'Win Now'



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696828 is a reply to message #696818 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 13:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
spoonful  is currently offline spoonful
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NetBOG wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 13:15

Adam wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 13:03

NZ Oiler Fan wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 13:01

McGuire saying that teams WILL offer sheet Drai if the rumoured 13.25 contract is true. At what point do you just take the picks and walk away? 9m?

edit for linkage: http://www.tsn.ca/video/mcguire-teams-will-offer-sheet-drais aitl-if-mcdavid-makes-13-25m%7E1156535


Is Pierre really that plugged in? And just because teams send offersheets to Draisaitl, doesn't mean he has to sign them.


The magic numbers are really $7.85 million and $9.81 million

Anything under that, Oilers will gladly match.
Between those two numbers, the compensation is 2x1st + 2nd + 3rd
Above the top number, compensation is 4x1st

Team has to have the next years picks available and they have to be their own. Unfortunately, most teams have these picks still. Except stupid Calgary. Because it's all 'Win Now'


And to add to this, the average annual value (AAV) for compensation is calculated by dividing the total contract by 5 years regardless of the number of years of the offer sheet.

For example, if someone sends an offer sheet to Drai to $49M for 7 years the AAV for compensation would be $9.8 million.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696822 is a reply to message #696815 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 13:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
McDavid97  is currently offline McDavid97
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Adam wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 12:51

Goose wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 12:30

Adam wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 11:23

bigEfromGP wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 12:10

Just for some comparision....

Crosby 1st contract ($9.7MM/avg, 5 year, 48.5 million signed June 2007) results in his contract being 22% of a teams cap that year. By the end of that contract, it shrunk to 15%.

His second contract ($8.7MM/avg, 12 year, 104.4 million signed June 2012) resulted in his contract being 12% of the teams cap. Currently it's just under 12% of the teams cap ($73MM) for the upcoming season.

McDavid's rumoured contract will be 18% of the team's cap. So, provided the cap grows as it has or better, by the end of this contract it will be an absolute steal.



I believe your numbers are a little off. Single player contracts can't be more than 20% of the team cap as per the CBA.


According to CapFriendly, both of Sid's post-ELC contracts have been for $8.7M AAV

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/sidney-crosby


Yes they were. I think the cap when the first was signed was 50.8 or thereabouts.



Here are the numbers that I ran.

Crosby signed for the 2008-2009 season for $8.7M for $56.7M team cap = 15.3% of the teams cap
When he signed July 10, 2007 prior to that the salary cap was at $50.3M so at the time signed it was 17.2%, they were really fortunate that the cap jumped.

McDavid - signing it at $13.25M cap is $75M so at the time of signing 17.6% of the cap. But if the cap goes to $77M next year it would be 17.2%.

The cap would have to be at $86.6M when his contract kicks in for it to be similar percent of cap with Crosbys. That's not happening.

It's high, I don't like how high it is. I mean he is a special player, he deserves it but it really handcuffs this team.

[Updated on: Wed, 28 June 2017 13:23]


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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696823 is a reply to message #696822 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 13:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
NZ Oiler Fan  is currently offline NZ Oiler Fan
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McDavid97 wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 13:20

Adam wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 12:51

Goose wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 12:30

Adam wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 11:23

bigEfromGP wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 12:10

Just for some comparision....

Crosby 1st contract ($9.7MM/avg, 5 year, 48.5 million signed June 2007) results in his contract being 22% of a teams cap that year. By the end of that contract, it shrunk to 15%.

His second contract ($8.7MM/avg, 12 year, 104.4 million signed June 2012) resulted in his contract being 12% of the teams cap. Currently it's just under 12% of the teams cap ($73MM) for the upcoming season.

McDavid's rumoured contract will be 18% of the team's cap. So, provided the cap grows as it has or better, by the end of this contract it will be an absolute steal.



I believe your numbers are a little off. Single player contracts can't be more than 20% of the team cap as per the CBA.


According to CapFriendly, both of Sid's post-ELC contracts have been for $8.7M AAV

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/sidney-crosby


Yes they were. I think the cap when the first was signed was 50.8 or thereabouts.



Here are the numbers that I ran.

Crosby signed for the 2008-2009 season for $8.7M for $56.7M team cap = 15.3% of the teams cap
When he signed July 10, 2007 prior to that the salary cap was at $50.3M so at the time signed it was 17.2%, they were really fortunate that the cap jumped.

McDavid - signing it at $13.25M cap is $75M so at the time of signing 17.6% of the cap. But if the cap goes to $77M next year it would be 17.2%.

The cap would have to be at $86.6M when his contract kicks in for it to be similar percent of cap with Crosbys. That's not happening.

It's high, I don't like how high it is. I mean he is a special player, he deserves it but it really handcuffs this team.



I disagree. His contract would be good value.

If you want to look at contracts handcuffing the team one need look no further than
Nuge & Lucic at $6m, or Russell & Pouliot at $4m...



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696849 is a reply to message #696809 ]
Wed, 28 June 2017 15:23 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Goose wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 12:30

Adam wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 11:23

bigEfromGP wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 12:10

Just for some comparision....

Crosby 1st contract ($9.7MM/avg, 5 year, 48.5 million signed June 2007) results in his contract being 22% of a teams cap that year. By the end of that contract, it shrunk to 15%.

His second contract ($8.7MM/avg, 12 year, 104.4 million signed June 2012) resulted in his contract being 12% of the teams cap. Currently it's just under 12% of the teams cap ($73MM) for the upcoming season.

McDavid's rumoured contract will be 18% of the team's cap. So, provided the cap grows as it has or better, by the end of this contract it will be an absolute steal.



I believe your numbers are a little off. Single player contracts can't be more than 20% of the team cap as per the CBA.


According to CapFriendly, both of Sid's post-ELC contracts have been for $8.7M AAV

https://www.capfriendly.com/players/sidney-crosby


Yep, you're both right. I had written down $43.5 but my chicken scratches made me think it was 48.5 when I went back to it. Will correct the post.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #696793 is a reply to message #696748 ]
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rivid wrote on Wed, 28 June 2017 08:12

Many will not like this but, if Mcdavid wants 14 million you have to trade him. Think of it like the Lindros trade. You would be able to get such a great return that the team should be able to compete even better for the Stanley cup. This would not just be draft picks but already very skilled players on someone's team. To me 14 million just cripples what you can do in the building process.


For me, any number that gets McDavid to sign for 8 years is a huge win. I'll gladly take it and would never entertain trading him.

Now if we are talking Draisaitl at 8-10M, I might be willing to put some feelers out and see what the market is for him. My preference is to find a price that works to keep him here, but it seems like this may not be going as smoothly as hoped.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #698376 is a reply to message #696396 ]
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Kr55 wrote on Sat, 24 June 2017 18:52

So, probably the most important pair of contracts that will determine the potential and longevity of the Oilers cup contention window. What are these 2 guys gonna cost us for the next 5+ years in cap hit?

Thinking 16M is probably the low end. Stauffer said 24M, so I'd consider that the high end (if that happens, FIRE CHIA!!!!!).

What's everyone thinking?


Would have just put this in the existing thread, but polls inside threads don't get many results usually.


So 21M it is. Got the most votes in the poll too.

McDavid+Drai combined will be the same as Kane/Toews. Of course Kane/Toews had a few cups before their current deals kicked in.

Welcome to cap hell everyone! icon_wink Well, not until 18/19 I suppose.

[Updated on: Wed, 16 August 2017 20:57]


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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #698391 is a reply to message #698376 ]
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I have heard a lot since the contract was signed about the Hawks and how since Kane and Toews signed, they haven't won a cup. The Hawks since those 2 signed their combined 21 mill have still been an elite team. Last season they were the class of the West again and supposed to be the team to beat in the West so the first round exit was a shock. But when I look further, you look at the age at which Kane and Toews are when they signed the 21 combined. Toews is currently 29, Kane will be 29 later this year. I have heard it mentioned that the peak years for an NHLer in production are typically in the 21/22-28/28 range. Really good players are typically still really productive after 28 and for the next few seasons but when Kane/Toews signed those deals, they were in the late stages of their "peak" years. Where as Leon is just entering into his what should be his peak years as is Mcdavid. So all of the contracts, the Oilers are getting Leon and McDavid when they should be at their absolute best.


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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #698392 is a reply to message #698391 ]
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 08:17

I have heard a lot since the contract was signed about the Hawks and how since Kane and Toews signed, they haven't won a cup. The Hawks since those 2 signed their combined 21 mill have still been an elite team. Last season they were the class of the West again and supposed to be the team to beat in the West so the first round exit was a shock. But when I look further, you look at the age at which Kane and Toews are when they signed the 21 combined. Toews is currently 29, Kane will be 29 later this year. I have heard it mentioned that the peak years for an NHLer in production are typically in the 21/22-28/28 range. Really good players are typically still really productive after 28 and for the next few seasons but when Kane/Toews signed those deals, they were in the late stages of their "peak" years. Where as Leon is just entering into his what should be his peak years as is Mcdavid. So all of the contracts, the Oilers are getting Leon and McDavid when they should be at their absolute best.


Hawks are definitely still a great regular season team. They might take a big step back next year after losing their 2nd best bang for the buck player in Hossa (#1 best being Keith). Depth killed them in the playoffs though and probably will continue to. Depth is the hard part now for us. And we are going to be very dependent on Drai's ability to take a couple wingers that cost a combined 8M or less and make his line into a very productive 5v5 line. I'm optimistic, but I don't think there's any denying the uncertainty in that. I think at the least we are going to be a very good regular season team in the coming years. That whole 4 playoffs rounds thing though, we're going to start battling the same battle the Kings/Hawks/Pens are going through to cheaply put together the depth needed to go all the way.

[Updated on: Thu, 17 August 2017 08:32]


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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #698394 is a reply to message #698392 ]
Thu, 17 August 2017 08:51 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 08:30

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 08:17

I have heard a lot since the contract was signed about the Hawks and how since Kane and Toews signed, they haven't won a cup. The Hawks since those 2 signed their combined 21 mill have still been an elite team. Last season they were the class of the West again and supposed to be the team to beat in the West so the first round exit was a shock. But when I look further, you look at the age at which Kane and Toews are when they signed the 21 combined. Toews is currently 29, Kane will be 29 later this year. I have heard it mentioned that the peak years for an NHLer in production are typically in the 21/22-28/28 range. Really good players are typically still really productive after 28 and for the next few seasons but when Kane/Toews signed those deals, they were in the late stages of their "peak" years. Where as Leon is just entering into his what should be his peak years as is Mcdavid. So all of the contracts, the Oilers are getting Leon and McDavid when they should be at their absolute best.


Hawks are definitely still a great regular season team. They might take a big step back next year after losing their 2nd best bang for the buck player in Hossa (#1 best being Keith). Depth killed them in the playoffs though and probably will continue to. Depth is the hard part now for us. And we are going to be very dependent on Drai's ability to take a couple wingers that cost a combined 8M or less and make his line into a very productive 5v5 line. I'm optimistic, but I don't think there's any denying the uncertainty in that. I think at the least we are going to be a very good regular season team in the coming years. That whole 4 playoffs rounds thing though, we're going to start battling the same battle the Kings/Hawks/Pens are going through to cheaply put together the depth needed to go all the way.


I think the biggest problem with the Hawks is Toews is GROSSLY overpaid. He's a damn good player but he's not a 10.5 mill player. If he was making 8.5, even 9, they would be better off.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #698444 is a reply to message #698394 ]
Thu, 17 August 2017 20:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 08:51

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 08:30

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 08:17

I have heard a lot since the contract was signed about the Hawks and how since Kane and Toews signed, they haven't won a cup. The Hawks since those 2 signed their combined 21 mill have still been an elite team. Last season they were the class of the West again and supposed to be the team to beat in the West so the first round exit was a shock. But when I look further, you look at the age at which Kane and Toews are when they signed the 21 combined. Toews is currently 29, Kane will be 29 later this year. I have heard it mentioned that the peak years for an NHLer in production are typically in the 21/22-28/28 range. Really good players are typically still really productive after 28 and for the next few seasons but when Kane/Toews signed those deals, they were in the late stages of their "peak" years. Where as Leon is just entering into his what should be his peak years as is Mcdavid. So all of the contracts, the Oilers are getting Leon and McDavid when they should be at their absolute best.


Hawks are definitely still a great regular season team. They might take a big step back next year after losing their 2nd best bang for the buck player in Hossa (#1 best being Keith). Depth killed them in the playoffs though and probably will continue to. Depth is the hard part now for us. And we are going to be very dependent on Drai's ability to take a couple wingers that cost a combined 8M or less and make his line into a very productive 5v5 line. I'm optimistic, but I don't think there's any denying the uncertainty in that. I think at the least we are going to be a very good regular season team in the coming years. That whole 4 playoffs rounds thing though, we're going to start battling the same battle the Kings/Hawks/Pens are going through to cheaply put together the depth needed to go all the way.


I think the biggest problem with the Hawks is Toews is GROSSLY overpaid. He's a damn good player but he's not a 10.5 mill player. If he was making 8.5, even 9, they would be better off.


Toews isn't as bad as some say IMO. The guy had a bad start to last season but he finished the last half at around ppg playing with scrubs on his wings, Panik who did crap all in his career until this season, and nick Schmaltz (who?). His play in the last part of the year was a big reason why Chicago got the chance to choke against the 2nd wildcard team :). The guy has a conn smythe and has been huge for Chicago on many occations spanning 3 cup wins. I can live with paying a bit extra for success and to keep the head of your leadership group that helped with 3 cups. I think Seabrook is the one they made the biggest mistake on.

[Updated on: Thu, 17 August 2017 20:56]


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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #698512 is a reply to message #698444 ]
Mon, 21 August 2017 09:54 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Kr55 wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 20:24

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 08:51

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 08:30

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 08:17

I have heard a lot since the contract was signed about the Hawks and how since Kane and Toews signed, they haven't won a cup. The Hawks since those 2 signed their combined 21 mill have still been an elite team. Last season they were the class of the West again and supposed to be the team to beat in the West so the first round exit was a shock. But when I look further, you look at the age at which Kane and Toews are when they signed the 21 combined. Toews is currently 29, Kane will be 29 later this year. I have heard it mentioned that the peak years for an NHLer in production are typically in the 21/22-28/28 range. Really good players are typically still really productive after 28 and for the next few seasons but when Kane/Toews signed those deals, they were in the late stages of their "peak" years. Where as Leon is just entering into his what should be his peak years as is Mcdavid. So all of the contracts, the Oilers are getting Leon and McDavid when they should be at their absolute best.


Hawks are definitely still a great regular season team. They might take a big step back next year after losing their 2nd best bang for the buck player in Hossa (#1 best being Keith). Depth killed them in the playoffs though and probably will continue to. Depth is the hard part now for us. And we are going to be very dependent on Drai's ability to take a couple wingers that cost a combined 8M or less and make his line into a very productive 5v5 line. I'm optimistic, but I don't think there's any denying the uncertainty in that. I think at the least we are going to be a very good regular season team in the coming years. That whole 4 playoffs rounds thing though, we're going to start battling the same battle the Kings/Hawks/Pens are going through to cheaply put together the depth needed to go all the way.


I think the biggest problem with the Hawks is Toews is GROSSLY overpaid. He's a damn good player but he's not a 10.5 mill player. If he was making 8.5, even 9, they would be better off.


Toews isn't as bad as some say IMO. The guy had a bad start to last season but he finished the last half at around ppg playing with scrubs on his wings, Panik who did crap all in his career until this season, and nick Schmaltz (who?). His play in the last part of the year was a big reason why Chicago got the chance to choke against the 2nd wildcard team :). The guy has a conn smythe and has been huge for Chicago on many occations spanning 3 cup wins. I can live with paying a bit extra for success and to keep the head of your leadership group that helped with 3 cups. I think Seabrook is the one they made the biggest mistake on.


I guess when I think of guys making 10+, I think of ELITE players. Guys who are challenging for scoring titles, who get consideration for Lindsey trophies. Toews is a damn good player, he can check, he can score at bit, win draws, is a good leader but what is he points wise, a 60+ player? I just think that is a little much for the offence he puts up. Then when I look at Bergeron who makes 6.875 mill. Bergeron does pretty much everything Toews does and does it pretty much at the same level. Toews has Kane who's elite forward to help him win those cups, He had Hossa who will be in the hall of fame, he has Keith, a norris dman, even Seasbrook in his prime was really good. If you look at Bergeron, he doesn't have the same supporting cast and if you swap Bergeron for Toews, during the Hawks dominant years, are the Hawks any weaker? Hard to say for sure but I would say no. Toews makes almost 4 mill more.



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 Re: Total AAV Cost of McDavid+Drai... [message #698513 is a reply to message #698512 ]
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 21 August 2017 09:54

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 20:24

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 08:51

Kr55 wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 08:30

RDOilerfan wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 08:17

I have heard a lot since the contract was signed about the Hawks and how since Kane and Toews signed, they haven't won a cup. The Hawks since those 2 signed their combined 21 mill have still been an elite team. Last season they were the class of the West again and supposed to be the team to beat in the West so the first round exit was a shock. But when I look further, you look at the age at which Kane and Toews are when they signed the 21 combined. Toews is currently 29, Kane will be 29 later this year. I have heard it mentioned that the peak years for an NHLer in production are typically in the 21/22-28/28 range. Really good players are typically still really productive after 28 and for the next few seasons but when Kane/Toews signed those deals, they were in the late stages of their "peak" years. Where as Leon is just entering into his what should be his peak years as is Mcdavid. So all of the contracts, the Oilers are getting Leon and McDavid when they should be at their absolute best.


Hawks are definitely still a great regular season team. They might take a big step back next year after losing their 2nd best bang for the buck player in Hossa (#1 best being Keith). Depth killed them in the playoffs though and probably will continue to. Depth is the hard part now for us. And we are going to be very dependent on Drai's ability to take a couple wingers that cost a combined 8M or less and make his line into a very productive 5v5 line. I'm optimistic, but I don't think there's any denying the uncertainty in that. I think at the least we are going to be a very good regular season team in the coming years. That whole 4 playoffs rounds thing though, we're going to start battling the same battle the Kings/Hawks/Pens are going through to cheaply put together the depth needed to go all the way.


I think the biggest problem with the Hawks is Toews is GROSSLY overpaid. He's a damn good player but he's not a 10.5 mill player. If he was making 8.5, even 9, they would be better off.


Toews isn't as bad as some say IMO. The guy had a bad start to last season but he finished the last half at around ppg playing with scrubs on his wings, Panik who did crap all in his career until this season, and nick Schmaltz (who?). His play in the last part of the year was a big reason why Chicago got the chance to choke against the 2nd wildcard team :). The guy has a conn smythe and has been huge for Chicago on many occations spanning 3 cup wins. I can live with paying a bit extra for success and to keep the head of your leadership group that helped with 3 cups. I think Seabrook is the one they made the biggest mistake on.


I guess when I think of guys making 10+, I think of ELITE players. Guys who are challenging for scoring titles, who get consideration for Lindsey trophies. Toews is a damn good player, he can check, he can score at bit, win draws, is a good leader but what is he points wise, a 60+ player? I just think that is a little much for the offence he puts up. Then when I look at Bergeron who makes 6.875 mill. Bergeron does pretty much everything Toews does and does it pretty much at the same level. Toews has Kane who's elite forward to help him win those cups, He had Hossa who will be in the hall of fame, he has Keith, a norris dman, even Seasbrook in his prime was really good. If you look at Bergeron, he doesn't have the same supporting cast and if you swap Bergeron for Toews, during the Hawks dominant years, are the Hawks any weaker? Hard to say for sure but I would say no. Toews makes almost 4 mill more.


Just a few factors for why I can understand why Bowman decided the best call was to overpay Toews relative to his on ice production.

1) This deal was down along with Kane who is very close with Toews, and it seems they wanted to just keep things equal because they have had so much success together and have both been the faces of the franchise for more than half a decade. So, if you pick a fight with Toews on the cap hit, you are picking a fight with Kane too. Kane could have probably would have got more on the open market so you can argue he is taking a discount so Toews can get a little more. It's not that bad of a situation when you look at it that way.

2) He is very clearly the leader of that dressing room. Kane does not seem like the type of guy that wants all the attention. Many a story has been written of how Toews keeps that dressing room together and focused on the ultimate goal. Some people don't value this I know, but losing Toews as UFA could have pretty bad consequences in that room.

3) He probably is making the blackhawks much more than the average player in merchandise sales. Not always a factor people talk about in player salaries, but the hawks are probably making a load of money off Toews with jersey and merchandise sales. Including all that, he might actually be paid very fairly, even if his on ice numbers are not the cream of the crop. Even though we don't talk about this, it's a very valid thing for players and agents to bring up in negotiations.

Most of these problems are only problems that come with extremely high amounts of success. Something we really have no come close to achieving here. Kopitar got a deal based on past success as well, and Doughty is likely going to join the 10M+ club too. They won 2 cups to lead to their own cap hell that they have to deal with. Here we are already though, a year away from facing the same kinds of cap crunch issues.

Not the end of the world of course. The Pens actually went through the same deal as us. They paid the huge premium right up front for generational/borderline generational talent before any team success was had (in Crosby's case). They did manage their 1 cup before Malkin's 2nd contract kicked in, then they had to wait and wait for the cap to go up before they could afford a Kessel to give them the depth needed to go all the way again. I really hope we don't need to wait that long. It's gonna take a lot of luck and/or amazing management to make sure the Oilers have the depth needed to win it all in the coming years.

[Updated on: Mon, 21 August 2017 11:22]


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-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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