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 Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698344]
Wed, 16 August 2017 12:08 Go to next message
Ragnarok73  is currently offline Ragnarok73
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5 Cups

NHL.com just posted this. Looks like the money was a bit higher than most anticipated.


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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698345 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 12:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Gaprider  is currently offline Gaprider
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Location: Small town Sask.

No Cups

More initially than I would have liked to see...but might be a great deal by the end of the contract...


Spread my ashes at Taylor Field

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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698347 is a reply to message #698345 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 12:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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2 Cups

If you are paying Leon 8.5 mill, he HAS to be centering his own line. As much as I love McDavid and Leon together, he has to drive his own line which I prefer. Create the 2 headed monster we had in the playoffs every night.

I would have liked Leon to make less like I have been saying all along but I thought the max the Oilers should spend on McDavid and Leon was 21 mill combined. At 12.5 and 8.5, that is 21 combined.

[Updated on: Wed, 16 August 2017 12:16]


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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698371 is a reply to message #698347 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 17:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
HamBlaster  is currently offline HamBlaster
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1 Cup

At first glance, this seems like a lot.

That said, if I think about the Oilers as a team without McDavid, Draisaitl is far and away our #1, and is one of the top emerging pivots in the league. I would put Drai in the next tier of players behind Crosby and McDavid.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698374 is a reply to message #698371 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 18:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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6 Cups

HamBlaster wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 17:25

At first glance, this seems like a lot.

That said, if I think about the Oilers as a team without McDavid, Draisaitl is far and away our #1, and is one of the top emerging pivots in the league. I would put Drai in the next tier of players behind Crosby and McDavid.


Yup. Playing wing with McDavid just helped Drai become a 8.5M player. And I bet a lot of teams hold Drai in similar regard (right or wrong). Nuge needs to play some wing to get his value up, and if he does end up being a great wing, maybe Chia does find some way to keep him. McLellan loves his C's that can play wing when needed.



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-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698348 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 12:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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6 Cups

No more wing time for Drai. Better be earning that driving a 2nd line getting 65+ points.

This is probably the biggest gamble so far by Chia. Bigger than the Hall trade IMO. Of course I hope it works out.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698349 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 12:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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CapFriendly‏ @CapFriendly
Food for thought

#Oilers cap hit:
17-18: $66.7M (24 players)
18-19: $60.7M (13 players)

*Roster limit is 23 plyrs


"Bye Nuge" is the first thing that comes to mind.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698356 is a reply to message #698349 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 13:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
AndersonRules  is currently offline AndersonRules
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No Cups

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 12:42

CapFriendly‏ @CapFriendly
Food for thought

#Oilers cap hit:
17-18: $66.7M (24 players)
18-19: $60.7M (13 players)

*Roster limit is 23 plyrs


"Bye Nuge" is the first thing that comes to mind.


And the second thing that comes to mind is "*#!@ that Kris Russell contact" - it will quite possibly prevent us from keeping one (or more) of Benning, Nurse, Strome, or Maroon. Next summer is going to be some real cap gymnastics ... Chiarelli will have to really earn his keep at that point.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698357 is a reply to message #698349 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 13:33 Go to previous messageGo to next message
DUFFMAN  is currently offline DUFFMAN
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No Cups

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 12:42

"Bye Nuge" is the first thing that comes to mind.

We'd still own the rights to 97, Drai, Strome and Caggiula at the C position. Nuge is playing himself off the team.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698364 is a reply to message #698357 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 15:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
K.McC#24  is currently offline K.McC#24
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2 Cups

DUFFMAN wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 13:33

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 12:42

"Bye Nuge" is the first thing that comes to mind.

We'd still own the rights to 97, Drai, Strome and Caggiula at the C position. Nuge is playing himself off the team.

....and Chia spent Nuge off the team. Hello dealing from weakness, regardless of Nuge's performance this year.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698372 is a reply to message #698364 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 17:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
HamBlaster  is currently offline HamBlaster
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1 Cup

If Nuge has a great year though, the Oilers could get some excellent assets for him. They need to put him in a position to succeed though. Playing alongside McDavid could really give him a boost.


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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698358 is a reply to message #698349 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 13:36 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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2 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 12:42

CapFriendly‏ @CapFriendly
Food for thought

#Oilers cap hit:
17-18: $66.7M (24 players)
18-19: $60.7M (13 players)

*Roster limit is 23 plyrs


"Bye Nuge" is the first thing that comes to mind.

As soon as McDavid signed for 12.5 and thinking that Leon would make no less than 7.5 mill, I had Nuge as a goner no matter what. I just have a hard time seeing Nuge as a winger as I don't see his game suited for that. As good as Leon and McDavid are together, I think the Oilers need Leon to be at center moving forward because they need that second guy anchoring the second line to offset McDavid. With his salary, you now have no choice to have Leon at center though I could see him moving around a bit from time to time. With that being said, you can't have a 6 mill 3rd line center. The Lucic contract has nothing to do with Nuge being gone. Even if Lucic wasn't here, you still can't afford to have Nuge, his contract and the type of player that he is on your team. There just isn't enough money.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698350 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 12:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ziltoid  is currently offline ziltoid
Messages: 211
Registered: January 2011

No Cups

At the end of last season I would have been begrudgingly okay with 8.5. Now, I think it is too high. As Kr55 said, it is big gamble, and I'm not sure I like it (if I get around to it in the coming weeks, I will post some numbers on why).

Crosby - Malkin
Toews - Kane
McDavid - Drai

The formula is being followed, but I have not seen Drai away from McDavid enough to be confident.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698354 is a reply to message #698350 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 13:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Jakey  is currently offline Jakey
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No Cups

A little higher than I had predicted ($8.125 year). I can live with it as it won't be a distraction & I do believe he can drive his own line. He is a very intelligent player who has the drive to get better always & wants to win big time! Look at his face-offs and how much better he was year over year last year.

They will play him all over again this next year. I am good with that, just make sure he has ample opportunity to drive that 2nd line.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698359 is a reply to message #698354 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 13:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
jds308  is currently offline jds308
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1 Cup

At least it's not 10M.....? Trying to spin some positivity.

8.5 seems a bit high to me, but we've got 8 years with 97 & 29 under contract. No doubt the cap will increase significantly over that span, so 21M for your 2 top forwards may end up pretty good if you've got a couple cups to show for it.

Nuge seems like a no brainer to be headed out the door and I wouldn't be shocked if it happened before the season starts. Why postpone the inevitable? Get decent F that can win faceoffs and kill penalties, and good pick/prospect(s).

Russel & Lucic contracts will also likely need to be moved before their term ends. Maybe Chia and Lucic have a wink wink arrangement about a career ending injury that will occur by year 3? I kid, but I really hope Chia has a plan...



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698360 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 13:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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6 Cups

Damn I wish we had an extra year on the ELC to evaluate. I think Chia made the right choice here. I would have locked him too, but there is certainly an elevated amount of risk with this one.


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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698361 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 14:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Pseudoreality  is currently offline Pseudoreality
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No Cups

I'm trying not to think about the money and what it will mean next year. I'm just trying to enjoy the fact he's signed long-term. Hopefully, him and McDavid can be the best 1-2 in the league.


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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698362 is a reply to message #698361 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 14:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Magnum  is currently offline Magnum
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4 Cups

Pseudoreality wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 14:42

I'm trying not to think about the money and what it will mean next year. I'm just trying to enjoy the fact he's signed long-term. Hopefully, him and McDavid can be the best 1-2 in the league.


They kind of have to be if Stanley is going to tour Edmonton anytime in the next 8 years.



2015/2016 - This Kool-Aid tastes like McDavid flavoured Drain-O.

2016/2017 - This Kool-Aid is starting to taste like juice.

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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698365 is a reply to message #698362 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 15:05 Go to previous messageGo to next message
K.McC#24  is currently offline K.McC#24
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2 Cups

Magnum wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 14:45

Pseudoreality wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 14:42

I'm trying not to think about the money and what it will mean next year. I'm just trying to enjoy the fact he's signed long-term. Hopefully, him and McDavid can be the best 1-2 in the league.


They kind of have to be if Stanley is going to tour Edmonton anytime in the next 8 years.


The whole 'by commitee' thing gets diminished.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698363 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 14:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
K.McC#24  is currently offline K.McC#24
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confused2

8.5 AAV for #2C. Only in Edmonton. Hope the kid lives up to the gaudy numbers this deal would suggest.

Not a fan of this today, might grow that way, but not in the short term.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698369 is a reply to message #698363 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 16:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Burgeoboy  is currently offline Burgeoboy
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No Cups

K.McC#24 wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 18:25

confused2

8.5 AAV for #2C. Only in Edmonton. Hope the kid lives up to the gaudy numbers this deal would suggest.

Not a fan of this today, might grow that way, but not in the short term.


And in Pittsburgh!!!

I don't like the deal was hoping for under 8, but to be fair, Dri is no more a second line center then Malkin is, he was top 8 in the league in scoring. Can he keeping doing that ? I have no idea , but surely no one expects him to be paid like a second line center, because McDavid plays ahead of him, do they ?

At the end of the day its 21 mill a year for Mcdavid and Dri, same has Kane and Toews , It well be tough, but not impossible to win with.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698370 is a reply to message #698363 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 16:44 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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K.McC#24 wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 14:55

confused2

8.5 AAV for #2C. Only in Edmonton. Hope the kid lives up to the gaudy numbers this deal would suggest.

Not a fan of this today, might grow that way, but not in the short term.


I made the case in another thread that I thought Johansen's 8 mill was the high mark for Leon just because UFA's always get paid too much and the Johansen contract is basically all UFA years.

Johansen has more experience. He has 1-71 pt season but seems to have settled in to be a real good, big, right shot 60+ pt center. The fear with Leon is he doesn't have a lot of experience or seasons to know fully what he is. I personally think he will be the Oilers Malkin which is a allstar, #1, elite center on any other teams but is the Oilers #2. But since you aren't a fan of the contract, would you take Johansen at 6 over Leon at 8.5? I don't know if I would.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698373 is a reply to message #698370 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 17:29 Go to previous messageGo to next message
HamBlaster  is currently offline HamBlaster
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That's a tough question. Johansen is a hell of a player, and he has an agitator attitude.

I like Johansen a lot.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698366 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 15:14 Go to previous messageGo to next message
JPro  is currently offline JPro
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No Cups

Has Lucic developed an ice allergy yet?


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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698368 is a reply to message #698366 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 16:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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2 Cups

JPro wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 15:14

Has Lucic developed an ice allergy yet?


I am on record as saying that the Lucic contract is too long. I have guy in my office who is a big Oilers fan like me. His office is close to mine. So we often talk a lot about the Oilers. As soon as I heard about the Leon signing, I mentioned it to him. We are both big time Leon fans. His reaction was like mine. We love the term, we think the dollars are a touch high today but assuming all things go well and Leon being so young, we both think he will get better, we both agree that it could end up being a really good contract in the not so distant future. Shortly in our conversation, he said something similar to you. "I hope Lucic gets a career ending injury as his contract is terrible."

So it got me thinking and your comment reminded me. What honestly do people think Lucic is worth? Lucic is a 20+ goal, 50+ pt, 200+ hit, fights, big, nasty, top 6 winger on any team. He brings a ton of swagger, accountability, tons of experience and its pretty clear given he has an A and how the media talked to him after every game, he's one of the Oilers main leaders. It has also been rumored many times that he turned down more money to sign with the Oilers. Supposedly Montreal was really hot after him. If Loui Eriksson get 6 X 6 from the Canucks. Ladd gets 5.5 X 7 from the Isles, Okposo got 6 x 7 from the Sabres and in my opinion, Lucic is better and brings more to your team than any of those guys. So it looks like Lucic got market value. In a perfect world, I would rather Lucic have maybe a 5 yr deal max but UFA's ALWAYS get either more money, more term or sometimes both than they should. It's the nature of the beast. SO what would have made people happy? I personally think that Lucic had a decent year, he did what he was brought in to do and I believe had a MASSIVE impact on fixing that locker room and turning the team around and I do not for a second think that McDavid would have handled being the captain as well without him.




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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698367 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 16:02 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Oilertime  is currently offline Oilertime
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No Cups

At least he's signed. Can't wait for the next lockout so the oil can get out of the Lucic contract


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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698375 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 18:56 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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6 Cups

Just pondering a bridge vs this 8.5M deal. Drai had RFA years left. We bought 3 UFA years.

8.5M with 5 RFA years is honestly a crazy deal. Drai is blowing away any other player aside from the cream of the crop (Crosby, Malkin, OV, McDavid) with this contract for what an RFA can get on his 2nd deal.

So, what was the risk of a bridge deal? Say you buy 3 years on a bridge at 6.5M. If Drai performs like a top 10 player, OK, maybe he gets 9.5M in 3 years, but you are 95% sure at that point you are getting a 9.5M player. How sure are we right now that Drai is even an 8.5M player? To me an 8.5M C is a guy that can drive his own line with 2 lesser wingers and put up 65+ points. 65 doesn't seem like much, but I'm trying to take into account the reduced offensive opportunity playing behind McDavid, and really, 65 points is pretty elite company these days regardless which is the company Drai is keeping now on the salary scale. Back to the question of how sure we are he's an 8.5M C, if I put a % to it, I would say 65%.

Honestly, I would have much preferred a bridge deal.



"The Edmonton Oilers are not where they should be right now and that is unacceptable. We need to get better immediately. That starts today"
-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698378 is a reply to message #698375 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 22:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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6 Cups

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 18:56

Just pondering a bridge vs this 8.5M deal. Drai had RFA years left. We bought 3 UFA years.

8.5M with 5 RFA years is honestly a crazy deal. Drai is blowing away any other player aside from the cream of the crop (Crosby, Malkin, OV, McDavid) with this contract for what an RFA can get on his 2nd deal.

So, what was the risk of a bridge deal? Say you buy 3 years on a bridge at 6.5M. If Drai performs like a top 10 player, OK, maybe he gets 9.5M in 3 years, but you are 95% sure at that point you are getting a 9.5M player. How sure are we right now that Drai is even an 8.5M player? To me an 8.5M C is a guy that can drive his own line with 2 lesser wingers and put up 65+ points. 65 doesn't seem like much, but I'm trying to take into account the reduced offensive opportunity playing behind McDavid, and really, 65 points is pretty elite company these days regardless which is the company Drai is keeping now on the salary scale. Back to the question of how sure we are he's an 8.5M C, if I put a % to it, I would say 65%.

Honestly, I would have much preferred a bridge deal.


The odd thing about this deal is that:

A) There have been all kinds of bloggers and columnists who've done the homework for the Oilers, calculating all the comparables and compiling lists that should have been quite instructive for the Oilers. Here's David Staples compilation:

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/ a-fair-contract-for-leon-draisaitl-eight-years-at-7-0-millio n

I think he was awfully optimistic at $7.0MM/season, but Leon Draisaitl's contract ends up coming in above every one of his comparables. The Oilers had lots of things to point to in their negotiations to justify a lower number.

B) Connor McDavid took a discount off what he could have demanded. The captain signaled with that that he was serious about building a winner here. The Oilers second best player did NOT take a discount. That's a problem. If you're convincing McDavid he's got to leave you room, you have to take that same argument to everyone else. The New England Patriots don't take a discount from only Tom Brady and pay top dollar to the supporting cast. The Oilers have given out a few new deals this summer, and only one of them looks to be at all a discount to market value.

C) There will be some significant pressure for Draisaitl to perform, and it will be interesting to see how the Oilers use him moving forward. If his production slips and he has a 60-point season next year, I could definitely see some portion of the Oilers fan base turning on the player.

D) What exactly was Chiarelli doing that got him to this number today? If this is the best you can do, don't you think it would have been worth putting a little more pressure on the other side in the negotiation? Why not wait until training camp to try to get a better deal? Getting half a million less per season could be impactful down the road, as every dollar is going to count. This seems like a number the Oilers could have got inked two months ago, so I don't understand why they'd commit to it today. If they couldn't budge him from this, I would have preferred that they take this negotiation at least to one of the pain points before agreeing - the start of training camp, the start of the regular season...Signing it now looks like capitulation from Panicky Pete.

All that said, it is possible that some team had tendered an offer sheet to Leon at this amount, and Chiarelli felt forced to act. If so, I think he still should have pushed the argument that McDavid took less and that everyone else needed to too, to ensure a competitive team. The timing and the quantum would be more understandable though.

Ultimately, this deal isn't one that the player can't hope to live up to. It's good to have Leon Draisaitl locked up for 8 years, and there's certainly some reason to hope that he'll live up to these dollars over the course of the deal. I'm happy to have it done, but my concerns about Oilers management have not been alleviated at all.



"This team needs an enema!"
#FireLowe #FireMacT #FireHowson #FireBuchberger #FireHowsonAgain #FireChiarelli #FireMcLellan

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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698383 is a reply to message #698378 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 23:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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6 Cups

Adam wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 22:52

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 18:56

Just pondering a bridge vs this 8.5M deal. Drai had RFA years left. We bought 3 UFA years.

8.5M with 5 RFA years is honestly a crazy deal. Drai is blowing away any other player aside from the cream of the crop (Crosby, Malkin, OV, McDavid) with this contract for what an RFA can get on his 2nd deal.

So, what was the risk of a bridge deal? Say you buy 3 years on a bridge at 6.5M. If Drai performs like a top 10 player, OK, maybe he gets 9.5M in 3 years, but you are 95% sure at that point you are getting a 9.5M player. How sure are we right now that Drai is even an 8.5M player? To me an 8.5M C is a guy that can drive his own line with 2 lesser wingers and put up 65+ points. 65 doesn't seem like much, but I'm trying to take into account the reduced offensive opportunity playing behind McDavid, and really, 65 points is pretty elite company these days regardless which is the company Drai is keeping now on the salary scale. Back to the question of how sure we are he's an 8.5M C, if I put a % to it, I would say 65%.

Honestly, I would have much preferred a bridge deal.


The odd thing about this deal is that:

A) There have been all kinds of bloggers and columnists who've done the homework for the Oilers, calculating all the comparables and compiling lists that should have been quite instructive for the Oilers. Here's David Staples compilation:

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/ a-fair-contract-for-leon-draisaitl-eight-years-at-7-0-millio n

I think he was awfully optimistic at $7.0MM/season, but Leon Draisaitl's contract ends up coming in above every one of his comparables. The Oilers had lots of things to point to in their negotiations to justify a lower number.

B) Connor McDavid took a discount off what he could have demanded. The captain signaled with that that he was serious about building a winner here. The Oilers second best player did NOT take a discount. That's a problem. If you're convincing McDavid he's got to leave you room, you have to take that same argument to everyone else. The New England Patriots don't take a discount from only Tom Brady and pay top dollar to the supporting cast. The Oilers have given out a few new deals this summer, and only one of them looks to be at all a discount to market value.

C) There will be some significant pressure for Draisaitl to perform, and it will be interesting to see how the Oilers use him moving forward. If his production slips and he has a 60-point season next year, I could definitely see some portion of the Oilers fan base turning on the player.

D) What exactly was Chiarelli doing that got him to this number today? If this is the best you can do, don't you think it would have been worth putting a little more pressure on the other side in the negotiation? Why not wait until training camp to try to get a better deal? Getting half a million less per season could be impactful down the road, as every dollar is going to count. This seems like a number the Oilers could have got inked two months ago, so I don't understand why they'd commit to it today. If they couldn't budge him from this, I would have preferred that they take this negotiation at least to one of the pain points before agreeing - the start of training camp, the start of the regular season...Signing it now looks like capitulation from Panicky Pete.

All that said, it is possible that some team had tendered an offer sheet to Leon at this amount, and Chiarelli felt forced to act. If so, I think he still should have pushed the argument that McDavid took less and that everyone else needed to too, to ensure a competitive team. The timing and the quantum would be more understandable though.

Ultimately, this deal isn't one that the player can't hope to live up to. It's good to have Leon Draisaitl locked up for 8 years, and there's certainly some reason to hope that he'll live up to these dollars over the course of the deal. I'm happy to have it done, but my concerns about Oilers management have not been alleviated at all.


The offer sheet factor is something we may never know. Not sure who would realistically make one, but you can exceed the cap in the summer if you want and still lots of time to dump salary, so I guess anything is possible.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698384 is a reply to message #698383 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 23:49 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Adam  is currently offline Adam
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 23:10


The offer sheet factor is something we may never know. Not sure who would realistically make one, but you can exceed the cap in the summer if you want and still lots of time to dump salary, so I guess anything is possible.


And even if he didn't actually get one, his agent could still call Chiarelli and say that they did, but that they didn't want to sign it...If Chiarelli has at all a reputation for panicking, then I could see agents manipulating him.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698379 is a reply to message #698375 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 22:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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Kr55 wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 17:56

Just pondering a bridge vs this 8.5M deal. Drai had RFA years left. We bought 3 UFA years.

8.5M with 5 RFA years is honestly a crazy deal. Drai is blowing away any other player aside from the cream of the crop (Crosby, Malkin, OV, McDavid) with this contract for what an RFA can get on his 2nd deal.

So, what was the risk of a bridge deal? Say you buy 3 years on a bridge at 6.5M. If Drai performs like a top 10 player, OK, maybe he gets 9.5M in 3 years, but you are 95% sure at that point you are getting a 9.5M player. How sure are we right now that Drai is even an 8.5M player? To me an 8.5M C is a guy that can drive his own line with 2 lesser wingers and put up 65+ points. 65 doesn't seem like much, but I'm trying to take into account the reduced offensive opportunity playing behind McDavid, and really, 65 points is pretty elite company these days regardless which is the company Drai is keeping now on the salary scale. Back to the question of how sure we are he's an 8.5M C, if I put a % to it, I would say 65%.

Honestly, I would have much preferred a bridge deal.


Just to break that down a bit further, Draisaitl had 27 points on the PP last year. The unit is returning, and barring injury to McDavid or Drai, should be effective again so I can see him coming in around the same number.

That means to get to 65 points, he probably needs to have around 40 even strength points. That would have put him 48th in the league by that metric last year, tied with Bo Horvat. That means 65 should really be the low water mark for Draisaitl making $8.5M. Anything less really hurts the team.

I think he can get there, but I don't see him being too much above that. Which means the Oilers really paid in full for Drai. Given the comparables out there, and as you mention the RFA years included, it's really hard to justify going that high.

Forget even full bridge, I think a 5 year deal at say $7.5M would have given the Oilers much more flexibility.

Totally unsubstantiated take, but Mike Kelly thinks the Oilers could have signed Drai for less if they had signed him before McDavid. Makes some sense I think.

Quote:

@MikeKellyNHL: Believe if Oilers had signed Draisaitl before McDavid, could have got him at around $7M AAV. Gap with McDavid became a point of contention.


https://twitter.com/MikeKellyNHL/status/897888237976473607



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698380 is a reply to message #698379 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 23:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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Goose wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 22:58

Kr55 wrote on Wed, 16 August 2017 17:56

Just pondering a bridge vs this 8.5M deal. Drai had RFA years left. We bought 3 UFA years.

8.5M with 5 RFA years is honestly a crazy deal. Drai is blowing away any other player aside from the cream of the crop (Crosby, Malkin, OV, McDavid) with this contract for what an RFA can get on his 2nd deal.

So, what was the risk of a bridge deal? Say you buy 3 years on a bridge at 6.5M. If Drai performs like a top 10 player, OK, maybe he gets 9.5M in 3 years, but you are 95% sure at that point you are getting a 9.5M player. How sure are we right now that Drai is even an 8.5M player? To me an 8.5M C is a guy that can drive his own line with 2 lesser wingers and put up 65+ points. 65 doesn't seem like much, but I'm trying to take into account the reduced offensive opportunity playing behind McDavid, and really, 65 points is pretty elite company these days regardless which is the company Drai is keeping now on the salary scale. Back to the question of how sure we are he's an 8.5M C, if I put a % to it, I would say 65%.

Honestly, I would have much preferred a bridge deal.


Just to break that down a bit further, Draisaitl had 27 points on the PP last year. The unit is returning, and barring injury to McDavid or Drai, should be effective again so I can see him coming in around the same number.

That means to get to 65 points, he probably needs to have around 40 even strength points. That would have put him 48th in the league by that metric last year, tied with Bo Horvat. That means 65 should really be the low water mark for Draisaitl making $8.5M. Anything less really hurts the team.

I think he can get there, but I don't see him being too much above that. Which means the Oilers really paid in full for Drai. Given the comparables out there, and as you mention the RFA years included, it's really hard to justify going that high.

Forget even full bridge, I think a 5 year deal at say $7.5M would have given the Oilers much more flexibility.

Totally unsubstantiated take, but Mike Kelly thinks the Oilers could have signed Drai for less if they had signed him before McDavid. Makes some sense I think.

Quote:

@MikeKellyNHL: Believe if Oilers had signed Draisaitl before McDavid, could have got him at around $7M AAV. Gap with McDavid became a point of contention.


https://twitter.com/MikeKellyNHL/status/897888237976473607


Yeah, saw that Mike Kelly tweet. It does make sense, but I do have a hard time faulting Chia on getting the McDavid deal done ASAP. Do you want McDavid sitting around waiting while you try to get Drai done? I think you really need to get McDavid done as soon as you can, especially if he's willing to sign for the 8 years. And on the flip side for Drai, he would obviously want to see McDavid done first because there was a 97% chance McDavid's deal was going to help his argument.



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- #2, April 2015

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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698377 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Wed, 16 August 2017 22:30 Go to previous messageGo to next message
overdue  is currently offline overdue
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Am a little surprised at the number given the limited sample size of his play at this level and the fact that he piggy backed numbers playing with McD alot last season. On the other hand he performed when the going got tough in the playoffs and he has the skill and smarts and size to have a Phil Esposito (Malkin ) type impact. I predict he will put up especially in light of playing on the second line and not having to face the opposition team's best checkers every game. Probably paid too much but this sets a pretty solid foundation for the team going forward. Hopefully Nuge can perform well this season and either solidify his place on this team or be moved for some valuable assets.


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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698386 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Thu, 17 August 2017 00:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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So basically, with the world burning to the ground, my level of outrage over the Oilers spending too much on a player doesn't exist right now.

I'm honestly just happy with the thought of getting to watch McDavid and Draisaitl play together for 8 years. I think that is one heck of a combo to lock-up long-term in their prime years. Those two, the sweetheart deals to Klefbom and Larsson, and Talbot (who will need a raise), provide a nice foundation.

A few things:

1) The Oilers management are going to need to get good at finding cheap, NHL players to round out lineups and move them in and out. These players can be from college, developed in the AHL, or aging vets (i.e. Iginla, Jagr), but there will be a revolving supporting cast around these bedrock players. We might have to get used to the Caggiulas and Slepyshevs coming in, contributing, and then moving on because there are cheaper alternatives.

2) The Draisaitl deal is a bit of a gamble, and on the high-end of some of his comparables (I would have loved a Filip Forsberg type deal). That said, I think he's a good gamble, and has a better-than-not chance of making this a value contract. His play in the playoffs was elevated, and his growth curve in the NHL is encourage. He's shown a lot of the right signs, and his versatility to move to the wing, center, and around the Top-2 lines is extremely helpful. I don't think he's an $8.5 M player YET, and there's no guarantee he will be, but I THINK he will. I hope he will.

3) If the Oilers end up in cap trouble, and they might, it is far less likely to be due to Draisaitl as it is to bad contracts to Lucic, Russell, and I'm going to include Nugent-Hopkins in here as well. RNH is likely to get dealt (a Justin Faulk return would be the dream), but with Draisaitl we are getting his prime years, and I think we will see growth over the term of his contract; with Lucic and Russell, we are likely to see diminishing returns over the contract, and we are getting few prime years out of them. While Draisaitl COULD be overpaid by 0.5M-1.5M, it's almost a guarantee Lucic and Russell will be during the length of their deal. I don't hate those two by any means, but if you are looking for links that will hamper the Oilers moving forward, nothing is more glaring.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698387 is a reply to message #698344 ]
Thu, 17 August 2017 00:42 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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For what it's worth, I would WAY rather have 21M tied up in McDavid and Draisaitl than Kane and Toews.

And then when you factor in the Seabrook, Keith, and Crawford.

Oilers aren't in the cap hell position of the Kings or Hawks. Difference being a few Cups for each that put those teams there. With any luck the Oilers have set themselves up and will be winning a few with the contracts they've signed already in place.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698389 is a reply to message #698387 ]
Thu, 17 August 2017 07:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Kr55 is currently online Kr55
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mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 00:42

For what it's worth, I would WAY rather have 21M tied up in McDavid and Draisaitl than Kane and Toews.

And then when you factor in the Seabrook, Keith, and Crawford.

Oilers aren't in the cap hell position of the Kings or Hawks. Difference being a few Cups for each that put those teams there. With any luck the Oilers have set themselves up and will be winning a few with the contracts they've signed already in place.


What would the definition of cap hell be? We just traded Eberle for cap reasons getting a lesser RW back and nothing more. Likely Nuge is next.

Not as bad as the Kings/Hawks for sure, but even a run to the finals could make things very similar. Fingers crossed that the Oilers can do a good job of keeping the cupboards stocked so we have a constant flow of cheap contributors.

[Updated on: Thu, 17 August 2017 07:46]


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-Kevin Lowe, April 2013


"Next year (15/16) I would forecast as another developmental year"
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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698395 is a reply to message #698389 ]
Thu, 17 August 2017 09:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Kr55 wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 07:43

mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 00:42

For what it's worth, I would WAY rather have 21M tied up in McDavid and Draisaitl than Kane and Toews.

And then when you factor in the Seabrook, Keith, and Crawford.

Oilers aren't in the cap hell position of the Kings or Hawks. Difference being a few Cups for each that put those teams there. With any luck the Oilers have set themselves up and will be winning a few with the contracts they've signed already in place.


What would the definition of cap hell be? We just traded Eberle for cap reasons getting a lesser RW back and nothing more. Likely Nuge is next.

Not as bad as the Kings/Hawks for sure, but even a run to the finals could make things very similar. Fingers crossed that the Oilers can do a good job of keeping the cupboards stocked so we have a constant flow of cheap contributors.


I know you weren't a fan of the Eberle trade as is obvious in your post and you are right, part of the trade was for cap space. But in all seriousness, do you think Eberle was worth 6 mill? Maybe you think he was worth it, I am on record as saying he was overpaid given his limitations in his game and the fact he was so one dimensional. I don't think he scored enough or will ever score enough to justify 6 mill. So I am OK with the trade because they got rid of a overpaid, underachieving player and in my opinion, you can't have too many of those guys on your team, it brings the whole team down.

I am on record as saying because I am from Red Deer, I am a Nuge fan because I watched him in junior but again, he is grossly overpaid for what he is producing. He had 43 pts last year in 82 games. He had 34 pts in 55 games the year prior. For 6 mill, that isn't close to enough. Even if McDavid wasn't here, you can't have a center making 6 mill turning in 43 pt season who can't win a faceoff. So as much as I like Nuge, just like Eberle, you can't as a team afford to have players making as much money as he does and grossly underachieve like he has for 2 straight seasons.




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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698408 is a reply to message #698387 ]
Thu, 17 August 2017 12:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
K.McC#24  is currently offline K.McC#24
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mightyreasoner wrote on Thu, 17 August 2017 00:42

For what it's worth, I would WAY rather have 21M tied up in McDavid and Draisaitl than Kane and Toews.

And then when you factor in the Seabrook, Keith, and Crawford.

Oilers aren't in the cap hell position of the Kings or Hawks. Difference being a few Cups for each that put those teams there. With any luck the Oilers have set themselves up and will be winning a few with the contracts they've signed already in place.


Depends on whether you pay after seeing some success, success being a Stanley Cup victory or two, or gamble prior to success....'with any luck'.

McDavid was a given, yeah I was hoping for less on the AAV but very easy to rationalize that deal. Now, each contract given his contract results in a magnification. Now we look at Draisaitl's deal, now the Lucic signing, now RNH, now Russell. The wiggle room for contractual mistakes is officially out the door. Hope it works out, but I wanted more show from Draisaitl prior to giving him 1C money (everywhere else in the league) for 1RW or 2C role. McDavid will do his thing, hope Leon kills it, because there's no room for error anywhere else.



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698969 is a reply to message #698408 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 14:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
GabbyDugan  is currently offline GabbyDugan
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...This year, Drai should be able to start the season stronger than last year, when he was playing from early August in Germany to qualify them for a spot in the Olympics, then playing in that forgettable World Cup of Hockey tournament before training camp started...this year, he just has to be concerned with his performance as an Oiler....



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 Re: Oil sign Dr Drai - 8 yrs at $8.5mil/season [message #698971 is a reply to message #698969 ]
Thu, 14 September 2017 14:26 Go to previous message
Pseudoreality  is currently offline Pseudoreality
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GabbyDugan wrote on Thu, 14 September 2017 14:08

...This year, Drai should be able to start the season stronger than last year, when he was playing from early August in Germany to qualify them for a spot in the Olympics, then playing in that forgettable World Cup of Hockey tournament before training camp started...this year, he just has to be concerned with his performance as an Oiler....


That should have made him start strong, but maybe burn out by the end of the year. Players are typically in best game shape mid-year.



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