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 Speculation » Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 SeasonPages (4): [ «  <  1  2  3  4  >  »]
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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694673 is a reply to message #694666 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 08:35 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Babaganoosh wrote on Sun, 14 May 2017 17:36

As Goose pointed out in another thread Eberle and Draisatl had a almost identical points/60min while playing with McDavid so when are you going to stop pushing the fallacy that Eberle can't play with McDavid.


OK great but that still doesn't change the fact that he's being paid 6 mill and being paid as if he is a consistent 30+ goal, 70 pt guy. He was given that contract right after he had 34 goals, 76 pts. He's never gotten close since. So even if he does bounce back and scores 25 goals and pushes 60 pts, which is where he settled into before this season, he's still way overpaid because he doesn't do enough other things to justify that 6 mill. When Eberle doesn't score he doesn't do anything else. That's not intended as a knock that's just his style of play. He's been like that his entire career.

I believe Eberle is currently the Oilers Hornqvist. He's a smallish winger who puts up 20+ goals and 50+ pts every year. Production wise, that's just fine. http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/player-bio/patric-hornqvist Those are Hornqvist numbers, pretty consistent. I was surprised at how many hits he gets, especially the last 2 seasons which Eberle doesn't do. Hornqvist is a slightly more grittier, more responsible Eberle. BUT Hornqvist makes 4.25 mill. Eberle isn't 1.75 mill better than Hornqvist. If the Pens have proven anything, it's that when you have 2 elite centers, you don't have to break the bank on wingers to have good lines. If Eberle was making 4.5 mill and he puts up his 25 goal, close to 60 pts, similar to a hornqvist, then you live with the flaws in his game because his contract isn't bad. Even if he made 5 mill, you may grumble a bit but you probably live with it.

To put it into perspective. If the Oilers had Eberle at Hornqvist money, that 6 mill he currently makes would pay for him and be damn close to covering Kassian's new deal. If you don't like Hornqvist, a person can rattle off tons of guys scoring similar numbers to Eberle who make in the 4's or less. So while I like Eberle, if you can get rid of him and his 6 mill, I believe you have to get rid of him because I think you can replace Eberle's production with someone for way less. Eberle's usual production being mid 20's in goals, 55+ pts. I don't see Eberle moving forward scoring more than that.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694674 is a reply to message #694673 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 09:39 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Babaganoosh  is currently offline Babaganoosh
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You don't see him improving because your bias against him isnt allowing it. He scored 20 goals with a career low shooting percentage. So just a return to his career average would make him a 30 goal guy would it not. Is a return to his career shooting percentage completely out of the realm of possibility? There is no way you could see that happening? Really?

Why not put Eberle on the wing with McDavid and Draisatl. That way you have two guys that can carry the play and Ebs can get lost in coverage. Gives.him the space to be effective. You can find others guys to check. There a dime a freaking dozen. Players with Eberles raw offensive talent are not and should not be cast off because it's become the cool thing to bash him.

[Updated on: Mon, 15 May 2017 09:40]


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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694676 is a reply to message #694674 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 09:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Babaganoosh  is currently offline Babaganoosh
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To further this I just read the feeling is Ebs contract is going to be impossible to move and get much of a return. For this reason alone I advocate keeping him and hoping for a rebound. We would be better served by the higher return for RNH. Has the sparkle of being a former first overall. Besides the guy still can't win a faceoff.


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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694678 is a reply to message #694676 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 10:31 Go to previous messageGo to next message
CrusaderPi  is currently offline CrusaderPi
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Babaganoosh wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 09:55

To further this I just read the feeling is Ebs contract is going to be impossible to move and get much of a return. For this reason alone I advocate keeping him and hoping for a rebound. We would be better served by the higher return for RNH. Has the sparkle of being a former first overall. Besides the guy still can't win a faceoff.

But as soon as he registers an 8 point game... sell sell sell.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694677 is a reply to message #694674 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 10:22 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Babaganoosh wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 09:39

You don't see him improving because your bias against him isnt allowing it. He scored 20 goals with a career low shooting percentage. So just a return to his career average would make him a 30 goal guy would it not. Is a return to his career shooting percentage completely out of the realm of possibility? There is no way you could see that happening? Really?

Why not put Eberle on the wing with McDavid and Draisatl. That way you have two guys that can carry the play and Ebs can get lost in coverage. Gives.him the space to be effective. You can find others guys to check. There a dime a freaking dozen. Players with Eberles raw offensive talent are not and should not be cast off because it's become the cool thing to bash him.


Here is Eberle's stats. http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/player-bio/jordan-eberle. He's scored 30 goals once 6 seasons ago. So he's not a 30 goal scorer, you have to do it more than once to be called that. He's scored 20, 25, 24, 28, 16 in 48 which pro rates to about 27. If you do the math, over the last 5 seasons, that averages to about 25 goals a year. No doubt about it, pretty decent production. But exactly where am I bashing Eberle? I said he makes too much money for what he produces.

When you have Mcdavid and Leon coming up who will take up a BIG chunk of your cap, you need guys on value contracts and preferably have some of those value contract guys bring more to your team than one thing. He doesn't kill penalties, he isn't big, he isn't hard to play against, he's not physical, he's not tough and he's suspect defensively on a lot of nights. He does produce decent offense but no way does he produce huge offense. So sorry if you think I am picking on poor Eberle for saying the truth but what he doesn't do as a player. I am not trying to run Eberle out of town but when you are going to have 2 players making what 17+ mill a year real quick, paying 6 mill for a guy that scores you 25 goals but that's all he does is too much money.

To your comment on loading up a line with Leon - McDavid - Eberle. Sorry man, never going to happen and McLellan would be nuts.
#1 Maroon scored 27 goals with McDavid this past season. So you aren't going to take him off that line. Not a chance. Plus I believe McLellan likes having a big body, physical presence on one of McDavid's wing to police a bit, clear space and go to the net.
#2 Leon played ONLY right wing on McDavid's line. He did that because if you are going to have a player play his off wing, he needs to be good on the backhand which Leon is.
#3 Leon showed he is the Oilers second best offensive center and no disrespect to Nuge, showed he's the Oilers second best center and it's not close. They need him at center.
#4 Eberle is a right winger. He has to play right wing. As I stated above Leon only played RW when he wasn't at center. So it's one or the other.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694681 is a reply to message #694677 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 11:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 10:22



But exactly where am I bashing Eberle? I said he makes too much money for what he produces.




While I do think Eberle's time as an Oiler is done I dont agree with it. He had a down year and was not good in the playoffs but my opinion is he will bounce back to a degree next year.

Aside from the above, which is my opinion, there are a few reasons that I believe to be fact that defend why he should stay;

- the return will likely not be good and I doubt the return will fill one of the other gaps we have, IE top 4 RHD with some offence. His departure will create another hole to fill in the linup that will be very tough. A replacement FA will be just as expensive if not more. JP is more than likely not ready for a top 6 role right off the bat, Drai will likely be the 2C
- We not NEED the cap relief right away. Drai's cap increase will kick in this year but McD's not until the following season. This gives us one year before we will really see a cap crunch that forces moving assets for cap relief.
- lastly and to me the most important(and the reason for quoting the above post) is the fallacy that he isnt earning his 6mill cap hit/price tag. Last year in the NHL there were 51 forwards that had a cap hit between 5-7 mill. Eberle was 28th in points among those.
That doesnt make him great value but it does place him as paid accordingly for his output.
To narrow that down there were 31 between 5.5 and 6.5 and he was 15th in points, again middle of the pack.
Stats and cap hits from CapFriendly
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2017/points/all/fo rwards

Some of this is my opinion but the stats are fact. A number of people on the "trade him right now" side are using his stats at face value VS his cap hit as a reason and the facts are that he is paid accordingly for the numbers he put up this year, even in one of his worst years on that front.



"My wife told me Edmonton was going to win the pick that day," said Gretzky. "That was the day that I retired 16 years ago. So, she said, for whatever reason, the Oilers have good luck today. Connor McDavid went to Edmonton."

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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694689 is a reply to message #694674 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 15:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Ragnarok73  is currently offline Ragnarok73
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Babaganoosh wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 09:39

Why not put Eberle on the wing with McDavid and Draisatl. That way you have two guys that can carry the play and Ebs can get lost in coverage. Gives.him the space to be effective. You can find others guys to check. There a dime a freaking dozen. Players with Eberles raw offensive talent are not and should not be cast off because it's become the cool thing to bash him.

Um, Ebs has played with Connor on his wing and didn't do enough. That's why TMac demoted him to reunite with Nuge on the 2nd line. It's not "bashing" a player to rightly point out that their production offensively isn't cutting it, especially when they are paid a lot of money to do just that because they can't do much else.

These kind of players don't belong on a team that seriously wants to challenge for the Cup. The Oil have a core in place aside from one more top-flight D-man, so they now need to find those guys who can contribute the secondary scoring in the postseason. Ebs has clearly shown that he cannot deliver that scoring and at $6 mil/year, he's taking up too much cap space for the Oil to wait around to see if he rebounds.

While I can certainly see him staying in Edmonton because other teams won't want him at his current cap hit, I don't feel that he *should* be staying unless he were willing to take a major pay cut (say at least $2 million less per year). A player as one-dimensional as Ebs shouldn't be paid as much as he is unless he is consistently producing at a high level. Granted, his contract was another mess left behind by the OBC that Chia and Co. need to clean up, but it does need to be cleaned up and soon.



"There's no greater springboard to development than failure." - Craig MacTavish, April 13/15.

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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694694 is a reply to message #694689 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 16:18 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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Ragnarok73 wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 15:40


Um, Ebs has played with Connor on his wing and didn't do enough. That's why TMac demoted him to reunite with Nuge on the 2nd line. It's not "bashing" a player to rightly point out that their production offensively isn't cutting it, especially when they are paid a lot of money to do just that because they can't do much else.

These kind of players don't belong on a team that seriously wants to challenge for the Cup. The Oil have a core in place aside from one more top-flight D-man, so they now need to find those guys who can contribute the secondary scoring in the postseason. Ebs has clearly shown that he cannot deliver that scoring and at $6 mil/year, he's taking up too much cap space for the Oil to wait around to see if he rebounds.

While I can certainly see him staying in Edmonton because other teams won't want him at his current cap hit, I don't feel that he *should* be staying unless he were willing to take a major pay cut (say at least $2 million less per year). A player as one-dimensional as Ebs shouldn't be paid as much as he is unless he is consistently producing at a high level. Granted, his contract was another mess left behind by the OBC that Chia and Co. need to clean up, but it does need to be cleaned up and soon.


I mentioned his ranking among players with comparable contracts in another post yet you and some others continue to bang the drum over his production and him being overpaid.

How is his contract "a mess left behind by the OBC"

How many points should get for 6 mill?

PS. he cant "take a pay cut" to stay. His contract is what it is outside of the Oilers retaining cap and/or salary in a trade and that would just add to the return needed for the Oilers to make a decent trade for him



"My wife told me Edmonton was going to win the pick that day," said Gretzky. "That was the day that I retired 16 years ago. So, she said, for whatever reason, the Oilers have good luck today. Connor McDavid went to Edmonton."

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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694647 is a reply to message #694632 ]
Fri, 12 May 2017 18:08 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Ragnarok73  is currently offline Ragnarok73
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mazankowski wrote on Fri, 12 May 2017 08:43

1) We had better have a good contingency plan to get a RH 2nd pairing offensive D man if we do not re-sign KR. If we have Benning move up the lineup next year, we won't take the next step. I don't think Benning is a bad player, he's just raw and developing still. To throw him into that spot, with those minutes, as a sophomore player is a lot for any player. Can Eberle net you a someone with a terrible contract, be exposed to Vegas or someone who just had a down year? Maybe.

Looking at the list of UFA's in the upcoming window, I see some interesting names aside from Shattenkirk:

Michael Del Zotto (PHI) - ~$3.9 mil/season
Cody Franson (BUF) - $3.3 mil/season
Dmitry Kulikov (BUF) - ~$4.3 mil/season
Karl Alzner (WAS) - $2.8 mil/season

Alzner is different from most of the other D-men on this list as he doesn't have the offensive chops to compare with them. However, he is known to be a very solid defensive D-man like Larsson, and I don't see that as a bad thing at all. Plus, as a defensive D-man who isn't expected to put up any impressive offensive numbers, Alzner's asking price shouldn't be nearly as high as it would be for Shattenkirk who is by far and away the top offensive D-man in the UFA class of 2017.

Shattenkirk will likely get $6-7+ mil easily per season, which I can actually see the Oil being able to afford if they can dump Ebs' contract to along with the space being cleared up by finally seeing Ference's money come off the books. Moreover, while he didn't initially want to come to Edmonton, the team's performance in the past season may have changed his mind as to whether the Oil are in fact a team on the verge of contending for a Cup. If the Oil could somehow get him and Alzner to join up, their blue-line corp would go from good to elite pretty much immediately. The pairings could look as follows:

Alzner - Shattenkirk
Larsson - Klefbom
Sekera - Benning
Nurse
Russell (if he is re-signed)

It is going to be interesting to see what Chia can do come July 1.



"There's no greater springboard to development than failure." - Craig MacTavish, April 13/15.

5-14-6-1

"Sabres think the suck is their ally? They merely adopted the suck. The Oilers were born in it...molded by it."

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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694648 is a reply to message #694647 ]
Fri, 12 May 2017 19:15 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mazankowski  is currently offline mazankowski
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Ragnarok73 wrote on Fri, 12 May 2017 17:08

mazankowski wrote on Fri, 12 May 2017 08:43

1) We had better have a good contingency plan to get a RH 2nd pairing offensive D man if we do not re-sign KR. If we have Benning move up the lineup next year, we won't take the next step. I don't think Benning is a bad player, he's just raw and developing still. To throw him into that spot, with those minutes, as a sophomore player is a lot for any player. Can Eberle net you a someone with a terrible contract, be exposed to Vegas or someone who just had a down year? Maybe.

Looking at the list of UFA's in the upcoming window, I see some interesting names aside from Shattenkirk:

Michael Del Zotto (PHI) - ~$3.9 mil/season
Cody Franson (BUF) - $3.3 mil/season
Dmitry Kulikov (BUF) - ~$4.3 mil/season
Karl Alzner (WAS) - $2.8 mil/season

Alzner is different from most of the other D-men on this list as he doesn't have the offensive chops to compare with them. However, he is known to be a very solid defensive D-man like Larsson, and I don't see that as a bad thing at all. Plus, as a defensive D-man who isn't expected to put up any impressive offensive numbers, Alzner's asking price shouldn't be nearly as high as it would be for Shattenkirk who is by far and away the top offensive D-man in the UFA class of 2017.

Shattenkirk will likely get $6-7+ mil easily per season, which I can actually see the Oil being able to afford if they can dump Ebs' contract to along with the space being cleared up by finally seeing Ference's money come off the books. Moreover, while he didn't initially want to come to Edmonton, the team's performance in the past season may have changed his mind as to whether the Oil are in fact a team on the verge of contending for a Cup. If the Oil could somehow get him and Alzner to join up, their blue-line corp would go from good to elite pretty much immediately. The pairings could look as follows:

Alzner - Shattenkirk
Larsson - Klefbom
Sekera - Benning
Nurse
Russell (if he is re-signed)

It is going to be interesting to see what Chia can do come July 1.


I agree Alzner would be a solid option. He's a steady Eddie as the guys like to call him; however, he's the top defensive D man on the market, and we have to remember what some of those guys can get as one dimensional players. Volchenkov, Komisarek, Girardi (although re-signed), Orpik, etc.

If you can get him for Russell money ($4 million), then it's a no brainer. But something tells me a team like Chicago or even Pittsburgh might find a way to clear space. Hell, even the Leafs wouldn't be a bad fit. But I do like all your options, just hoping the Oilers see it as a need and don't think they can just get by with a summer of growth.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694675 is a reply to message #694648 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 09:50 Go to previous messageGo to next message
DUFFMAN  is currently offline DUFFMAN
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mazankowski wrote on Fri, 12 May 2017 19:15


I agree Alzner would be a solid option.

If he was a righty I'd agree. It really does matter on defense.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694651 is a reply to message #694557 ]
Fri, 12 May 2017 22:40 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
Messages: 4166
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4 Cups

My lines for next year:

Maroon / McDavid / _________ (Silfverberg)
Lucic / Draisaitl / _________ (Hemsky)
Slepyshev / Nugent-Hopkins / Puljujarvi
Caggiula / Letestu / Kassian
Khaira, Pitlick*

AHL: Platzer, Vesel, LaLeggia, Gambardella
CHL: Benson


Klefbom / Larsson
Sekera / ________ (Hamonic/Barrie)
Nurse / Benning
Oesterle*

AHL: Bear, Jones, Reinhart, Paigin, Fayne, Simpson


Talbot
_______ (Bernier)

AHL: Ellis, Brossoit


Re-signing Players:

UFAs to Sign: Tyler Pitlick, Jordan Oesterle
RFAs to Sign: Leon Draisiatl, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira, Dillon Simpson, Joey LaLeggia, Tyler Vesel (Entry-Level Contract)

Do Not Qualify: Iiro Pakarinen (RFA), Anton Lander (RFA), Jere Sallinen (RFA), Zach Pochiro (RFA), Henrik Samuelsson (RFA), David Musil (RFA), Evan Campbell (unsigned draft pick), Zach Nagelvoort (unsigned draft pick), Eetu Laurikainen (unsigned draft pick)

Do Not Sign: David Desharnais (UFA), Matt Hendricks (UFA), Kris Russell (UFA), Andrew Ference (UFA), Eric Gryba (UFA), Mark Fraser (UFA), Justin Fontaine (UFA), Jonas Gustavsson (UFA)


Vegas Expansion:

Exempt: Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi, Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula, Matt Benning, Darnell Nurse, Tyler Benson, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Joey LaLeggia**, Joe Gambardella, Patrick Russell, Kyle Platzer, Greg Chase, Ben Betker, Ryan Mantha, William Legesson, Ziyat Paigin, Braden Christoffer, Nick Ellis, Shane Starrett, Jere Sallinen**, Eetu Laurikainen**

Protected: Leon Draisaitl**, Patrick Maroon, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zack Kassian**, Milan Lucic, ___________, Adam Larsson, Oscar Klefbom, Andrej Sekera, Cam Talbot

Exposed: Mark Letestu, Benoit Pouliot, Jujhar Khaira**, Laurent Brossoit, Griffin Reinhart**, Dillon Simpson**, Mark Fayne, Iiro Pakarinen**, Anton Lander (Europe), Henrik Samuelsson**, David Musil**, Bogdan Yakimov (Europe), Zach Pochiro**, Tyler Pitlick*, Jordan Oesterle*, Matt Hendricks*, David Desharnais*, Eric Gryba*, Kris Russell*, Jonas Gustavsson*, Justin Fontaine*, Mark Fraser*

*=UFA
**=RFA


Positions to Target This Summer:

1 RW
2 RW
4 RD
2 G

1 RW - TJ Oshie, on paper, looks like a great fit to play on McDavid's wing. Good hands, goes to the net, doesn't need to handle the puck and can defer to McDavid. But as Lucic and Eberle demonstrated last year, theory and reality don't always align. Plus... Oshie is going to get PAID, and I'm not sure it's wise for the Oilers to get into a contract like that.

My solution: Find a winger that is likely going to be exposed to Vegas, and try and squeeze that player out for pennies on the dollar. Immediately the players that come to mind are Jacob Silfverberg, Jason Zucker, and Michael Grabner. The Oilers have an open 7th forward position to protect a player, and most people are defaulting to protecting Jujhar Khaira. To me that's a waste of a protected position and we could use it to protect a much higher calibre player.


2 RW - A lot will decide what they decide to do with Jordan Eberle (personally I think he may be moved for a 4D... more in a moment).

Ideally, you don't pencil Puljujarvi into your healthy, opening night lineup, but if you move Eberle, you almost certainly have to play Puljujarvi and add a RW. Regardless though of whether they move Eberle or not, I'm in favour of adding another 2/3 RW. I'd be looking to the UFA market for this player, and I wouldn't be looking for a massive big name.

UFAs that would fit well alongside Lucic and Draisaitl: Drew Stafford, Jarome Iginla, Radim Vrbata, or my personal preference: Ales Hemsky (who is eligible for a bonus-structured contract early because of injury problems last year).


4 RD - There's not much in UFA that fits the Oilers needs. Kevin Shattenkirk would, but like Oshie, he's likely going to paid beyond what is wise for the Oilers to commit to. Karl Alzner is an option, but again likely will get more than is wise.

I think probably this is being solved through trade. Guys on my radar: Tyson Barrie, Tyler Myers, Travis Hamonic, and Justin Faulk (perhaps Cody Ceci and Alex Petrovic also). I can't believe that Faulk would be moved, but the rumours keep popping up; he's my #1 choice. As for Barrie, Myers, and Hamonic, I would see if either could be had for Eberle and then work from there.


2 G - The default for this position would be Laurent Brossoit. But Nick Ellis looks like he may have a higher ceiling long-term, and Brossoit doesn't look like a very reliable NHL backup. If a better option can be found, I'd probably look at trading LB.

If NYI eat salary, Jaroslav Halak would be an attractive option. But I think the UFA market might be where to look, particularly Jonathan Bernier and Mike Condon.


Couple other player notes:

Benoit Pouliot - What to do with this guy? I don't want to buy him out because then that cap hit is sticking around as the big contracts start making our cap tighter each year. He's not the worst player, he does some things well (forecheck, PK, draws penalties), but I get the feeling the Oilers don't want him around. It would be great if Vegas claimed him (even if we have to add sweetener); it would be great if there was someone who would trade for him. But if neither happen, I may give him the Mark Fayne treatment and bury the contract until it runs out (also gives us a decent AHL recall).

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Eventually RNH will have to be moved, and the risk you run is that the closer you back yourself into a corner (either because of a restricted cap or because he's approaching UFA), the less leverage you have in trade talks. The flipside is this year was an offensive disappointment and he COULD rebound (though given his reduced role, I'm skeptical to see that).

RNH is a fine player, and he is a great player to have out against guys like Getzlaf. But at $6M and money that needs to be spent elsewhere, it does start to get hard to justify his paycheck. Personally, I think I wait until next year for a clearer picture, but if there is a good offer out there this year, and the Oilers have a plan to patch the hole RNH leaves, I would listen to offers.

Guys who could replace RNH if he is moved: Matthieu Perreault (Winnipeg will lose him to Vegas), Martin Hanzal (UFA), and perhaps Brian Boyle (UFA) or a guy like Brandon Sutter or Lars Eller (trade).

Griffin Reinhart - A lot of people think Reinhart is the guy that will be claimed by Vegas (I'm not convinced it won't be Letestu). If he doesn't get claimed, then I guess you should qualify him. I definitely see him as a trade chip, perhaps for a 4C if Letestu IS claimed, perhaps for a 2G. You also could keep him in place of Oesterle as 7D, but personally I like Oesterle and his mobility better.

AHL Forward Depth - Yikes. Hopefully we can sign Spencer Foo.

[Updated on: Sat, 13 May 2017 02:09]


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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694670 is a reply to message #694651 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 00:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ryanc182  is currently offline ryanc182
Messages: 155
Registered: July 2008
Location: Red Deer

No Cups

I also like Oshie but don't think his next contract works for the Oilers.

What about Kovalchuk? Sounds like he wants to come back to the NHL and the Devils will be looking to deal him. Does anyone know what his contract status is? Does he come back at the 6.6 ( I believe?) he was previously making or does he sign a new deal? You want a shooter to play with McDavid, he could be a fit on a short term deal. Big body too at 6'2 230 (as per The Score) honestly can't remember too much about how much he uses it to impact the game.

Obviously some red flags here as he up and left for the homeland before, but if New Jersey has no interest in bringing him back and are starved for offence, does an Eberle for a short term re-signed Kovalchuk make any sense? Reunite Hall and Eberle as they have proven to play well together before.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694671 is a reply to message #694670 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 00:37 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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ryanc182 wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 00:25

I also like Oshie but don't think his next contract works for the Oilers.

What about Kovalchuk? Sounds like he wants to come back to the NHL and the Devils will be looking to deal him. Does anyone know what his contract status is? Does he come back at the 6.6 ( I believe?) he was previously making or does he sign a new deal? You want a shooter to play with McDavid, he could be a fit on a short term deal. Big body too at 6'2 230 (as per The Score) honestly can't remember too much about how much he uses it to impact the game.

Obviously some red flags here as he up and left for the homeland before, but if New Jersey has no interest in bringing him back and are starved for offence, does an Eberle for a short term re-signed Kovalchuk make any sense? Reunite Hall and Eberle as they have proven to play well together before.


The big concerns I have with Kovalchuk are:

1) I'm not sure he still isn't too expensive for the Oilers.
2) If I remember correctly, he is a guy who had the puck on his stick a lot; to be effective he needed to be one carrying it a lot. I would prefer that the puck is on McDavid's stick as much as possible.

An option... I'm just not sure if it's the best one.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694672 is a reply to message #694671 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 00:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
ryanc182  is currently offline ryanc182
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Think you might be right about him carrying the puck the majority of the time. All I remember is he has a rocket shot and was lethal with it, even playing the point on the PP. McDavid feeding him one timers would be deadly if they could establish the fact that the play drives through #97.

Dollars again probably don't make sense but the guy has made a pile of money, both in the NHL and KHL. If he simply wants to win, Edmonton could be a good option for him if he was willing to make decent but not top dollar.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694679 is a reply to message #694672 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 11:04 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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I think the Lucic signing is going to be one of the last "big money" winger signings for awhile. I see Lucic as a special case where he was brought in more to change the make up and the culture of the team. I think he was brought in to score 20-25 goals, score 50+ points while being a big bodied, physical guy on the ice. He scored 23 goals, 50 pt, just over 200 hits, had a few fights. More so I think he was brought in to like I said change the culture, change the perception of the team and to be a leader and help McDavid. McDavid singled Lucic out as being a guy that was a HUGE help for him in the leadership area in his first year as captain and if you look at all the post game video's that the Oilers put up after every game, there was rarely a night Lucic wasn't talked too.

So as much as I would like Oshie, I think he will be too expensive.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694682 is a reply to message #694679 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 12:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Goose  is currently offline Goose
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 10:04

I think the Lucic signing is going to be one of the last "big money" winger signings for awhile. I see Lucic as a special case where he was brought in more to change the make up and the culture of the team. I think he was brought in to score 20-25 goals, score 50+ points while being a big bodied, physical guy on the ice. He scored 23 goals, 50 pt, just over 200 hits, had a few fights. More so I think he was brought in to like I said change the culture, change the perception of the team and to be a leader and help McDavid. McDavid singled Lucic out as being a guy that was a HUGE help for him in the leadership area in his first year as captain and if you look at all the post game video's that the Oilers put up after every game, there was rarely a night Lucic wasn't talked too.

So as much as I would like Oshie, I think he will be too expensive.


100% agree with this your take that Lucic will be the last big deal for wingers we see in a long time. Which is why I don't understand why you think it will be so easy to replace Eberle's production. You've brought up Hornqvist's name a few times as a comparable. Do you think Pittsburgh is just going to gift you Hornqvist because you're dissatisfied with Eberle's contract? Maybe Pittsburgh thinks they need defence. You're looking at probably Sekera straight up, or something like Nurse + eating a bad contract to get Hornqvist from the Pens. I wouldn't do either of those deals for Hornqvist (or anything similar, I admit I'm terrible at coming up with trade scenarios).

UFA deals can get crazy quickly, and as mentioned, the Oilers aren't in a position to sign any deal remotely close to these:

- Alex Steen - $5.75M coming of a 67GP /17goals/52pts season
- Loui Eriksson - $6M after seasons of 10G/22G/30G
- Andrew Ladd - $6M - never scored 30 goals; coming off a 59GP/17goal/34pt season
- Kyle Okposo - $6M - career high 27 goals; coming off a 22 goal/64 pt season
- David Backes - $6M - coming off a 21G/45pt seasons
- Frans Nielson - $5.25M - career high 25 goals; coming off a 20G/52pt season

Maybe you can get lucky and sign a UFA like Vrbata or Vanek to take Eberle's minutes and they perform higher than expected. But there's no guarantees that they would want to take a short-term deal in Edmonton. And you're looking at guys that are significantly older and potentially have been underperforming (like Vanek). There's risks in every scenario.

Eberle's deal doesn't hurt the Oilers this year. They have plenty of cap-space to re-sign Draisaitl and McDavid's deal won't kick in until next year. I really don't understand the rush to dump Eberle when his value is at an all-time low.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694684 is a reply to message #694682 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 13:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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Goose wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 12:09

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 10:04

I think the Lucic signing is going to be one of the last "big money" winger signings for awhile. I see Lucic as a special case where he was brought in more to change the make up and the culture of the team. I think he was brought in to score 20-25 goals, score 50+ points while being a big bodied, physical guy on the ice. He scored 23 goals, 50 pt, just over 200 hits, had a few fights. More so I think he was brought in to like I said change the culture, change the perception of the team and to be a leader and help McDavid. McDavid singled Lucic out as being a guy that was a HUGE help for him in the leadership area in his first year as captain and if you look at all the post game video's that the Oilers put up after every game, there was rarely a night Lucic wasn't talked too.

So as much as I would like Oshie, I think he will be too expensive.


100% agree with this your take that Lucic will be the last big deal for wingers we see in a long time. Which is why I don't understand why you think it will be so easy to replace Eberle's production. You've brought up Hornqvist's name a few times as a comparable. Do you think Pittsburgh is just going to gift you Hornqvist because you're dissatisfied with Eberle's contract? Maybe Pittsburgh thinks they need defence. You're looking at probably Sekera straight up, or something like Nurse + eating a bad contract to get Hornqvist from the Pens. I wouldn't do either of those deals for Hornqvist (or anything similar, I admit I'm terrible at coming up with trade scenarios).

UFA deals can get crazy quickly, and as mentioned, the Oilers aren't in a position to sign any deal remotely close to these:

- Alex Steen - $5.75M coming of a 67GP /17goals/52pts season
- Loui Eriksson - $6M after seasons of 10G/22G/30G
- Andrew Ladd - $6M - never scored 30 goals; coming off a 59GP/17goal/34pt season
- Kyle Okposo - $6M - career high 27 goals; coming off a 22 goal/64 pt season
- David Backes - $6M - coming off a 21G/45pt seasons
- Frans Nielson - $5.25M - career high 25 goals; coming off a 20G/52pt season

Maybe you can get lucky and sign a UFA like Vrbata or Vanek to take Eberle's minutes and they perform higher than expected. But there's no guarantees that they would want to take a short-term deal in Edmonton. And you're looking at guys that are significantly older and potentially have been underperforming (like Vanek). There's risks in every scenario.

Eberle's deal doesn't hurt the Oilers this year. They have plenty of cap-space to re-sign Draisaitl and McDavid's deal won't kick in until next year. I really don't understand the rush to dump Eberle when his value is at an all-time low.


You are missing my point. I am not saying the Pens will trade the Oilers Hornqvist for Eberle. I am just using him as an example of a player who makes way less than Eberle but still puts up closish numbers to Eberle. I am just trying to say that you don't have to spend 6 mill to get a 25 goal scorer especially when you have 2 elite offensive centers like McDavid and Leon. McDavid turned Maroon in to a 27 goal score this year. I like Maroon a ton but if he was with Nuge as an example all year, he's not scoring 27 goals, not a chance.

So that is why I would trade Eberle now. Like you have pointed out, Eberle had a below average shoot % year. So after this season and playoff, there could be GM's who look at what Eberle did the previous years, then look at his numbers like you did and say "hmm, I think this is a one off season." Then maybe he goes to Chia and says "my team needs more offense, could use some help on the PP. I have player X, he's a consistent 20 goal guy but that is his ceiling. I know the fans are down on Eberle, you have McDavid and Leon coming up for contracts and at some point will need to clear some space. Would you take Eberle for player X. Player X costs 2 mill less or whatever it is and he will cover most of the offense you lose in Eberle."

Player X plays with a good center. Maybe that center is a guy like Nuge a few years ago who's good but no where near as good as McDavid or Leon. To upgrade at center is a lot more difficult than at wing. In the GM's mind, he needs more offense. He knows that Player X is giving him everything he can with the centers he has. He feels that Eberle being more offensively gifted than Player X will score more with the center he has.

For the Oilers. Maybe in their minds, Eberle needs a change. They were skeptical about him when McLellan and Chia took over. He had a bad year and a brutal playoff. They know they will need to shed salary soon for McDavid and Leon. They hear the fans being all over Eberle. They don't want to just dump him for nothing. So they trade for Player X. In Player X, the Oilers get a 20 goal scorer making a lot less than Eberle. Hopefully he's maybe a little faster, maybe a better all around player. He was able to put up 20 goals with a decent center. Coming to the Oilers, the 2 centers they have are superior to that center so there is a chance he would put up more goals just because McDavid and Leon are that good. Maroon is a great example. Maroon's career high before this season was 12 goals. McDavid turned him into a 27 goal scorer. So I have to assume that if you can get a guy who hovers around 20 goals normally. Playing with a McDavid or a Leon will add more goals to his total.

So similar to the Hall trade. Maybe the player you get back for Eberle won't beat Eberle in a skills competition but that player makes you a more balanced team, brings elements that Eberle doesn't that your team could use and you get valuable cap space. If Eberle gets traded and next season scores 29 goals and 60 pts and is say -6. Pretty decent, Eberle type numbers making 6 mill. Then Player X playing with McDavid or Leon scores 24 goals, 50 pts, is a + player, maybe a bit more physical, maybe kills the odd penalty but makes somewhere around 4 mill. Did the Oilers lose that trade? I don't think they would because they got a guy that does more things for your team than Eberle, replaces most of the offense Eberle might score. Most importantly, they got valuable cap space that can go to either keeping another player who needs a new contract or can go to bringing in another player to fill another hole.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694687 is a reply to message #694684 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 14:45 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 13:01



So similar to the Hall trade. Maybe the player you get back for Eberle won't beat Eberle in a skills competition but that player makes you a more balanced team, brings elements that Eberle doesn't that your team could use and you get valuable cap space. If Eberle gets traded and next season scores 29 goals and 60 pts and is say -6. Pretty decent, Eberle type numbers making 6 mill. Then Player X playing with McDavid or Leon scores 24 goals, 50 pts, is a + player, maybe a bit more physical, maybe kills the odd penalty but makes somewhere around 4 mill. Did the Oilers lose that trade? I don't think they would because they got a guy that does more things for your team than Eberle, replaces most of the offense Eberle might score. Most importantly, they got valuable cap space that can go to either keeping another player who needs a new contract or can go to bringing in another player to fill another hole.



I didnt quote the entire post but this is a good defense and position on why to trade Eberle and you make some very good points.
The only question mark for me in the theory is that you dont often see a RW for RW trade (OR D for D, etc)
It can happen though and if the Oilers could get back a RW that makes less and has offensive abilities that may not equal Eberle's but other things he could bring to a line with McD or Drai I would be on board.

In fact, this proposition or a RHD with offense is about the only trade I would see as a good idea when it comes to Eberle. I would even be on board with packaging Eberle with a pick or prospect to bring that kind of player on board as it solves by biggest concern of giving Eberle away for anything that doesnt solve a problem for us right now.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694688 is a reply to message #694687 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 15:01 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 14:45

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 13:01



So similar to the Hall trade. Maybe the player you get back for Eberle won't beat Eberle in a skills competition but that player makes you a more balanced team, brings elements that Eberle doesn't that your team could use and you get valuable cap space. If Eberle gets traded and next season scores 29 goals and 60 pts and is say -6. Pretty decent, Eberle type numbers making 6 mill. Then Player X playing with McDavid or Leon scores 24 goals, 50 pts, is a + player, maybe a bit more physical, maybe kills the odd penalty but makes somewhere around 4 mill. Did the Oilers lose that trade? I don't think they would because they got a guy that does more things for your team than Eberle, replaces most of the offense Eberle might score. Most importantly, they got valuable cap space that can go to either keeping another player who needs a new contract or can go to bringing in another player to fill another hole.



I didnt quote the entire post but this is a good defense and position on why to trade Eberle and you make some very good points.
The only question mark for me in the theory is that you dont often see a RW for RW trade (OR D for D, etc)
It can happen though and if the Oilers could get back a RW that makes less and has offensive abilities that may not equal Eberle's but other things he could bring to a line with McD or Drai I would be on board.

In fact, this proposition or a RHD with offense is about the only trade I would see as a good idea when it comes to Eberle. I would even be on board with packaging Eberle with a pick or prospect to bring that kind of player on board as it solves by biggest concern of giving Eberle away for anything that doesnt solve a problem for us right now.


I heard Elliot Friedman talk about Eberle last week and he was of the opinion that an Eberle trade could happen and thinks teams see value in Eberle and believe this season was a one off. He just said that maybe they won't get as much for Eberle as some people might think they should mainly because of the salary. I want the Oilers to get out of the cycle of trading guys when they are low value. My concern with holding on to Eberle are 2 fold.
#1 Some people use shooting percentage and seem to think it's a lock Eberle bounces back. What happens if he doesn't? He turned 27 today. What happens if Eberle's bounce back is 22 goals, 54 pts at 6 mill. So now instead of a potential one off year, you now have the startings of a potential trend.

#2 I am all for the Oilers being aggressive and going after it but at some point they will have to trim salary. Some of the media types are saying that the Oilers for cap reasons this season don't have to trade and Eberle that they can afford hold on to him for one more year. So if they do that and hold on to Eberle for one more year, what happens to the value of Eberle when the Oilers are against the wall and HAVE to shed salary. They end up going Blackhawks and trading away good players for not a lot or being forced to keep the guy they truly want to get rid of and trading away someone they don't. That's my biggest concern.

If Eberle was a huge contributor and was the key to the Oilers this pat season I may think differently. But he wasn't. He had a down year and the Oilers did what they did primarily with Eberle and Nuge being quiet. Then they went to game 7 of the second round with Nuge and Eberle not scoring a single goal.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694691 is a reply to message #694688 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 15:52 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 15:01

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 14:45

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 13:01



So similar to the Hall trade. Maybe the player you get back for Eberle won't beat Eberle in a skills competition but that player makes you a more balanced team, brings elements that Eberle doesn't that your team could use and you get valuable cap space. If Eberle gets traded and next season scores 29 goals and 60 pts and is say -6. Pretty decent, Eberle type numbers making 6 mill. Then Player X playing with McDavid or Leon scores 24 goals, 50 pts, is a + player, maybe a bit more physical, maybe kills the odd penalty but makes somewhere around 4 mill. Did the Oilers lose that trade? I don't think they would because they got a guy that does more things for your team than Eberle, replaces most of the offense Eberle might score. Most importantly, they got valuable cap space that can go to either keeping another player who needs a new contract or can go to bringing in another player to fill another hole.



I didnt quote the entire post but this is a good defense and position on why to trade Eberle and you make some very good points.
The only question mark for me in the theory is that you dont often see a RW for RW trade (OR D for D, etc)
It can happen though and if the Oilers could get back a RW that makes less and has offensive abilities that may not equal Eberle's but other things he could bring to a line with McD or Drai I would be on board.

In fact, this proposition or a RHD with offense is about the only trade I would see as a good idea when it comes to Eberle. I would even be on board with packaging Eberle with a pick or prospect to bring that kind of player on board as it solves by biggest concern of giving Eberle away for anything that doesnt solve a problem for us right now.


I heard Elliot Friedman talk about Eberle last week and he was of the opinion that an Eberle trade could happen and thinks teams see value in Eberle and believe this season was a one off. He just said that maybe they won't get as much for Eberle as some people might think they should mainly because of the salary. I want the Oilers to get out of the cycle of trading guys when they are low value. My concern with holding on to Eberle are 2 fold.
#1 Some people use shooting percentage and seem to think it's a lock Eberle bounces back. What happens if he doesn't? He turned 27 today. What happens if Eberle's bounce back is 22 goals, 54 pts at 6 mill. So now instead of a potential one off year, you now have the startings of a potential trend.

#2 I am all for the Oilers being aggressive and going after it but at some point they will have to trim salary. Some of the media types are saying that the Oilers for cap reasons this season don't have to trade and Eberle that they can afford hold on to him for one more year. So if they do that and hold on to Eberle for one more year, what happens to the value of Eberle when the Oilers are against the wall and HAVE to shed salary. They end up going Blackhawks and trading away good players for not a lot or being forced to keep the guy they truly want to get rid of and trading away someone they don't. That's my biggest concern.

If Eberle was a huge contributor and was the key to the Oilers this pat season I may think differently. But he wasn't. He had a down year and the Oilers did what they did primarily with Eberle and Nuge being quiet. Then they went to game 7 of the second round with Nuge and Eberle not scoring a single goal.



Your points here are valid and refreshing compared to some of the BS from people who simply say, and I'm paraphrasing, Eberle sucks, dump him and salary for whatever you can get, or even to go as far as not protecting him from Vegas.

As mentioned, the points you add here are valid but this is where a GM has to earn his money.
Your point #1-- could happen and it could a trend. I think it is just as likely he bounces back and scores close to or over 30. Puts him in pretty rare company, especially at 6 mill. Chia and staff have to decide what they expect to happen and gauge trades accordingly.

to point #2-- I partially agree but my concern is the Oilers see the window to win as a decade when really it slowly closes the day McD contract kicks in. As long as he is playing at a high level but most teams that win a cup get good production for the money from the stars but a great ratio from some secondary guys (like Maroon)

If any of your predictions, IE his low percentage is a trend not a one time thing, or that we can get a cheaper but adequate fill in for Eberle, come true then I am fine with moving him.



"My wife told me Edmonton was going to win the pick that day," said Gretzky. "That was the day that I retired 16 years ago. So, she said, for whatever reason, the Oilers have good luck today. Connor McDavid went to Edmonton."

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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694692 is a reply to message #694691 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 16:06 Go to previous messageGo to next message
Babaganoosh  is currently offline Babaganoosh
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 15:52

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 15:01

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 14:45

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 13:01



So similar to the Hall trade. Maybe the player you get back for Eberle won't beat Eberle in a skills competition but that player makes you a more balanced team, brings elements that Eberle doesn't that your team could use and you get valuable cap space. If Eberle gets traded and next season scores 29 goals and 60 pts and is say -6. Pretty decent, Eberle type numbers making 6 mill. Then Player X playing with McDavid or Leon scores 24 goals, 50 pts, is a + player, maybe a bit more physical, maybe kills the odd penalty but makes somewhere around 4 mill. Did the Oilers lose that trade? I don't think they would because they got a guy that does more things for your team than Eberle, replaces most of the offense Eberle might score. Most importantly, they got valuable cap space that can go to either keeping another player who needs a new contract or can go to bringing in another player to fill another hole.



I didnt quote the entire post but this is a good defense and position on why to trade Eberle and you make some very good points.
The only question mark for me in the theory is that you dont often see a RW for RW trade (OR D for D, etc)
It can happen though and if the Oilers could get back a RW that makes less and has offensive abilities that may not equal Eberle's but other things he could bring to a line with McD or Drai I would be on board.

In fact, this proposition or a RHD with offense is about the only trade I would see as a good idea when it comes to Eberle. I would even be on board with packaging Eberle with a pick or prospect to bring that kind of player on board as it solves by biggest concern of giving Eberle away for anything that doesnt solve a problem for us right now.


I heard Elliot Friedman talk about Eberle last week and he was of the opinion that an Eberle trade could happen and thinks teams see value in Eberle and believe this season was a one off. He just said that maybe they won't get as much for Eberle as some people might think they should mainly because of the salary. I want the Oilers to get out of the cycle of trading guys when they are low value. My concern with holding on to Eberle are 2 fold.
#1 Some people use shooting percentage and seem to think it's a lock Eberle bounces back. What happens if he doesn't? He turned 27 today. What happens if Eberle's bounce back is 22 goals, 54 pts at 6 mill. So now instead of a potential one off year, you now have the startings of a potential trend.

#2 I am all for the Oilers being aggressive and going after it but at some point they will have to trim salary. Some of the media types are saying that the Oilers for cap reasons this season don't have to trade and Eberle that they can afford hold on to him for one more year. So if they do that and hold on to Eberle for one more year, what happens to the value of Eberle when the Oilers are against the wall and HAVE to shed salary. They end up going Blackhawks and trading away good players for not a lot or being forced to keep the guy they truly want to get rid of and trading away someone they don't. That's my biggest concern.

If Eberle was a huge contributor and was the key to the Oilers this pat season I may think differently. But he wasn't. He had a down year and the Oilers did what they did primarily with Eberle and Nuge being quiet. Then they went to game 7 of the second round with Nuge and Eberle not scoring a single goal.



Your points here are valid and refreshing compared to some of the BS from people who simply say, and I'm paraphrasing, Eberle sucks, dump him and salary for whatever you can get, or even to go as far as not protecting him from Vegas.

As mentioned, the points you add here are valid but this is where a GM has to earn his money.
Your point #1-- could happen and it could a trend. I think it is just as likely he bounces back and scores close to or over 30. Puts him in pretty rare company, especially at 6 mill. Chia and staff have to decide what they expect to happen and gauge trades accordingly.

to point #2-- I partially agree but my concern is the Oilers see the window to win as a decade when really it slowly closes the day McD contract kicks in. As long as he is playing at a high level but most teams that win a cup get good production for the money from the stars but a great ratio from some secondary guys (like Maroon)

If any of your predictions, IE his low percentage is a trend not a one time thing, or that we can get a cheaper but adequate fill in for Eberle, come true then I am fine with moving him.


If Eberle shot at his career average shooting percentage this season while being lazy, soft blah blah, he still would have hit 27 goals. His shooting percentage increased the two seasons prior to this one. One aberration does not make a trend.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694695 is a reply to message #694692 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 16:24 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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Babaganoosh wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 16:06

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 15:52






#1 Some people use shooting percentage and seem to think it's a lock Eberle bounces back. What happens if he doesn't? He turned 27 today. What happens if Eberle's bounce back is 22 goals, 54 pts at 6 mill. So now instead of a potential one off year, you now have the startings of a potential trend.





If Eberle shot at his career average shooting percentage this season while being lazy, soft blah blah, he still would have hit 27 goals. His shooting percentage increased the two seasons prior to this one. One aberration does not make a trend.


I agree on that opinion Baba. I believe it is one off year. But as I mentioned that is where Chia has his work cut out. If he agrees with us, trading him for anything short of a player who fills a need right now at or below Eberle's current cap hit would be a failure.
If Chia believes, as some do, that this is the beginning of a decline then sure, make the trade



"My wife told me Edmonton was going to win the pick that day," said Gretzky. "That was the day that I retired 16 years ago. So, she said, for whatever reason, the Oilers have good luck today. Connor McDavid went to Edmonton."

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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694696 is a reply to message #694695 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 16:34 Go to previous messageGo to next message
RDOilerfan  is currently offline RDOilerfan
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 16:24

Babaganoosh wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 16:06

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 15:52






#1 Some people use shooting percentage and seem to think it's a lock Eberle bounces back. What happens if he doesn't? He turned 27 today. What happens if Eberle's bounce back is 22 goals, 54 pts at 6 mill. So now instead of a potential one off year, you now have the startings of a potential trend.





If Eberle shot at his career average shooting percentage this season while being lazy, soft blah blah, he still would have hit 27 goals. His shooting percentage increased the two seasons prior to this one. One aberration does not make a trend.


I agree on that opinion Baba. I believe it is one off year. But as I mentioned that is where Chia has his work cut out. If he agrees with us, trading him for anything short of a player who fills a need right now at or below Eberle's current cap hit would be a failure.
If Chia believes, as some do, that this is the beginning of a decline then sure, make the trade


It's kind of funny. For years many fans all freaked out on the management for waiting too long on a player. They waited and waited for Hemsky thinking he'd turn it around, his injuries would stop and they never did and they got little for him. They waited and waited for Gagner to figure it out and become the good, second line scoring center he was supposed to be. He had a great lock out year, 38 pts in 48 games, then the wheels fell off again and they had to dump him. They waited for Yak to figure it out and he never did and got nothing.

Now the Oilers have a player who's at a cross roads in Eberle. He's been pretty good over his career when the Oilers were a bad team. The Oilers finally get good, make the playoffs and he has a down year and a horrible playoff. He just turned 27. Could this be a one off year? Maybe, could it be the start of a down trend? Maybe. But regardless, the Oilers have a usable player who should still have decent value. Yet here we are again arguing about if the Oilers should wait again on a player.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694697 is a reply to message #694696 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 17:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 16:34


It's kind of funny. For years many fans all freaked out on the management for waiting too long on a player. They waited and waited for Hemsky thinking he'd turn it around, his injuries would stop and they never did and they got little for him. They waited and waited for Gagner to figure it out and become the good, second line scoring center he was supposed to be. He had a great lock out year, 38 pts in 48 games, then the wheels fell off again and they had to dump him. They waited for Yak to figure it out and he never did and got nothing.

Now the Oilers have a player who's at a cross roads in Eberle. He's been pretty good over his career when the Oilers were a bad team. The Oilers finally get good, make the playoffs and he has a down year and a horrible playoff. He just turned 27. Could this be a one off year? Maybe, could it be the start of a down trend? Maybe. But regardless, the Oilers have a usable player who should still have decent value. Yet here we are again arguing about if the Oilers should wait again on a player.



You have to see some irony in the fact that you find a comparable in history for Gagner and Hemsky as a predictor for Eberle's next season but you dont think Eberle's OWN history is relevent?



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694714 is a reply to message #694697 ]
Tue, 16 May 2017 08:20 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 17:25

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 16:34


It's kind of funny. For years many fans all freaked out on the management for waiting too long on a player. They waited and waited for Hemsky thinking he'd turn it around, his injuries would stop and they never did and they got little for him. They waited and waited for Gagner to figure it out and become the good, second line scoring center he was supposed to be. He had a great lock out year, 38 pts in 48 games, then the wheels fell off again and they had to dump him. They waited for Yak to figure it out and he never did and got nothing.

Now the Oilers have a player who's at a cross roads in Eberle. He's been pretty good over his career when the Oilers were a bad team. The Oilers finally get good, make the playoffs and he has a down year and a horrible playoff. He just turned 27. Could this be a one off year? Maybe, could it be the start of a down trend? Maybe. But regardless, the Oilers have a usable player who should still have decent value. Yet here we are again arguing about if the Oilers should wait again on a player.



You have to see some irony in the fact that you find a comparable in history for Gagner and Hemsky as a predictor for Eberle's next season but you dont think Eberle's OWN history is relevent?


All I am doing is comparing the situation with Eberle vs Gagner and Hemsky. I believe Eberle has been and is a superior player to Gagner. I believe that Eberle has been a better player over his career than Hemsky. BUT with both Gagner and Hemsky, there came a point where talk started that it may be time to move Gagner and Hemsky. The Oilers waited too long to move on them in my opinion. Now there is talk starting about Eberle and it if it time to move him. So all I am saying is in the past, I think there came a point where the Oilers management probably paused and thought about moving Gagner and Hemsky but the Oilers decided to go the wait a little longer path and in my opinion it didn't work out. I think in the offseason last year, the thought was the Oilers needed to move one of Hall, Eberle or Nuge to change the culture but also bring in a dman. But the intent was to only move 1 guy. Once it became apparent that Hall was the only one able to get them a decent dman straight up, that was it for moving anymore. Now a year goes by, both Nuge and Eberle faultered even more so I am sure they are thinking it might be time to pull the trigger on another one. So I would like to see them be very careful if they decide to wait again because it hasn't worked out yet.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694723 is a reply to message #694714 ]
Tue, 16 May 2017 13:04 Go to previous messageGo to next message
PlusOne  is currently offline PlusOne
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RDOilerfan wrote on Tue, 16 May 2017 08:20

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 17:25

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 16:34


It's kind of funny. For years many fans all freaked out on the management for waiting too long on a player. They waited and waited for Hemsky thinking he'd turn it around, his injuries would stop and they never did and they got little for him. They waited and waited for Gagner to figure it out and become the good, second line scoring center he was supposed to be. He had a great lock out year, 38 pts in 48 games, then the wheels fell off again and they had to dump him. They waited for Yak to figure it out and he never did and got nothing.

Now the Oilers have a player who's at a cross roads in Eberle. He's been pretty good over his career when the Oilers were a bad team. The Oilers finally get good, make the playoffs and he has a down year and a horrible playoff. He just turned 27. Could this be a one off year? Maybe, could it be the start of a down trend? Maybe. But regardless, the Oilers have a usable player who should still have decent value. Yet here we are again arguing about if the Oilers should wait again on a player.



You have to see some irony in the fact that you find a comparable in history for Gagner and Hemsky as a predictor for Eberle's next season but you dont think Eberle's OWN history is relevent?


All I am doing is comparing the situation with Eberle vs Gagner and Hemsky. I believe Eberle has been and is a superior player to Gagner. I believe that Eberle has been a better player over his career than Hemsky. BUT with both Gagner and Hemsky, there came a point where talk started that it may be time to move Gagner and Hemsky. The Oilers waited too long to move on them in my opinion. Now there is talk starting about Eberle and it if it time to move him. So all I am saying is in the past, I think there came a point where the Oilers management probably paused and thought about moving Gagner and Hemsky but the Oilers decided to go the wait a little longer path and in my opinion it didn't work out. I think in the offseason last year, the thought was the Oilers needed to move one of Hall, Eberle or Nuge to change the culture but also bring in a dman. But the intent was to only move 1 guy. Once it became apparent that Hall was the only one able to get them a decent dman straight up, that was it for moving anymore. Now a year goes by, both Nuge and Eberle faultered even more so I am sure they are thinking it might be time to pull the trigger on another one. So I would like to see them be very careful if they decide to wait again because it hasn't worked out yet.


So that's a hard no on the irony then? ;-) Kidding

To your comments I dont think they apply, a decade later, different GM, coach, players, etc means there is very little correlation between Oilers of old and the decisions to make this offseason. I could find ten times that many from around the league that teams were close to giving up on and then turned it around.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694698 is a reply to message #694691 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 17:58 Go to previous messageGo to next message
DUFFMAN  is currently offline DUFFMAN
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 15:52

Your points here are valid and refreshing compared to some of the BS from people who simply say, and I'm paraphrasing, Eberle sucks, dump him and salary for whatever you can get, or even to go as far as not protecting him from Vegas.


I don't think Eberle sucks but I do think 6M of cap is worth more than he is and would absolutely leave him unprotected if a better deal didn't come along. Cap is a huge asset to a team that needs to re-sign Draisaitl and McDavid.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694702 is a reply to message #694698 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 21:53 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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DUFFMAN wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 17:58

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 15:52

Your points here are valid and refreshing compared to some of the BS from people who simply say, and I'm paraphrasing, Eberle sucks, dump him and salary for whatever you can get, or even to go as far as not protecting him from Vegas.


I don't think Eberle sucks but I do think 6M of cap is worth more than he is and would absolutely leave him unprotected if a better deal didn't come along. Cap is a huge asset to a team that needs to re-sign Draisaitl and McDavid.



See, this to me is ludicrous if I understand you right. You are saying that if no one would give us something for him you would simply let him go to LV for nothing?



"My wife told me Edmonton was going to win the pick that day," said Gretzky. "That was the day that I retired 16 years ago. So, she said, for whatever reason, the Oilers have good luck today. Connor McDavid went to Edmonton."

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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694703 is a reply to message #694702 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 22:28 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 21:53

DUFFMAN wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 17:58

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 15:52

Your points here are valid and refreshing compared to some of the BS from people who simply say, and I'm paraphrasing, Eberle sucks, dump him and salary for whatever you can get, or even to go as far as not protecting him from Vegas.


I don't think Eberle sucks but I do think 6M of cap is worth more than he is and would absolutely leave him unprotected if a better deal didn't come along. Cap is a huge asset to a team that needs to re-sign Draisaitl and McDavid.



See, this to me is ludicrous if I understand you right. You are saying that if no one would give us something for him you would simply let him go to LV for nothing?

The cap space he would free up by leaving (assuming that LV were to absorb all of it) would be an asset in itself. It would give Chia more leeway to target FA's like Alzner or Shattenkirk and/or to find cheaper replacements for Ebs who could turn out to be better postseason performers, such as Williams. It could be simple addition through subtraction.

One thing: if Chia and TMac see something in Ebs that I don't and decide to keep him around, I will trust their judgement and hope that my misgivings are baseless.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694708 is a reply to message #694703 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 23:55 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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Ragnarok73 wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 22:28

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 21:53

DUFFMAN wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 17:58

PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 15:52

Your points here are valid and refreshing compared to some of the BS from people who simply say, and I'm paraphrasing, Eberle sucks, dump him and salary for whatever you can get, or even to go as far as not protecting him from Vegas.


I don't think Eberle sucks but I do think 6M of cap is worth more than he is and would absolutely leave him unprotected if a better deal didn't come along. Cap is a huge asset to a team that needs to re-sign Draisaitl and McDavid.



See, this to me is ludicrous if I understand you right. You are saying that if no one would give us something for him you would simply let him go to LV for nothing?

The cap space he would free up by leaving (assuming that LV were to absorb all of it) would be an asset in itself. It would give Chia more leeway to target FA's like Alzner or Shattenkirk and/or to find cheaper replacements for Ebs who could turn out to be better postseason performers, such as Williams. It could be simple addition through subtraction.

One thing: if Chia and TMac see something in Ebs that I don't and decide to keep him around, I will trust their judgement and hope that my misgivings are baseless.


I mean this in the nicest way possible but that is illogical at best and insane at worst.
The only thing you are correct about is the fact that we would have TWO years of a 6 mill cap savings.
To suggest we use that money to sign Alzner or Shattenkirk (or any other FA that people have suggested that is under 30) is where things go sideways. Both of the guys you mention specifically are 28 I believe. Do you think they are going to sign deals for 1 or 2 years? IF not either of those guys would become a MUCH bigger issue for the last, I am guessing, 4 years of the 6 years deals they will be getting in a couple of months.

What trading Eberle comes down to is the cap savings in 2018/19 when McD's extension kicks in AND the return we get to fill gaps new year and for the future. If both of those qualifications are not met there is no point in trading him.

That is why I agree with some of RDOF's points. If we got a lesser paid player that could adequately help the team then a trade makes sense. The cap space comes off now to make room for Drai and other short term cap increases and doesnt create a problem for the future

There is zero reality where leaving him unprotected makes sense



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694710 is a reply to message #694708 ]
Tue, 16 May 2017 01:09 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 23:55

I mean this in the nicest way possible but that is illogical at best and insane at worst.
The only thing you are correct about is the fact that we would have TWO years of a 6 mill cap savings.
To suggest we use that money to sign Alzner or Shattenkirk (or any other FA that people have suggested that is under 30) is where things go sideways. Both of the guys you mention specifically are 28 I believe. Do you think they are going to sign deals for 1 or 2 years? IF not either of those guys would become a MUCH bigger issue for the last, I am guessing, 4 years of the 6 years deals they will be getting in a couple of months.

What trading Eberle comes down to is the cap savings in 2018/19 when McD's extension kicks in AND the return we get to fill gaps new year and for the future. If both of those qualifications are not met there is no point in trading him.

That is why I agree with some of RDOF's points. If we got a lesser paid player that could adequately help the team then a trade makes sense. The cap space comes off now to make room for Drai and other short term cap increases and doesnt create a problem for the future

There is zero reality where leaving him unprotected makes sense


For the record: I'm not advocating that Ebs just be exposed in the expansion draft. I'm just realistic enough to think that if Chia were to move Ebs, it would be for used hockey pucks and jockstraps, so there wouldn't be much difference. Either way, I'd be fine with it. I think you underestimate how important cap space is- if you need an illustration, simply look at the 'Hawks in the years after they won their Cups in the past several seasons after they were forced by the cap to dump key pieces of their championship teams which in turn led to them failing to defend their title the following season. There is a reason why the NHL hasn't had any back-to-back Cup winners since the cap was put into place.

Sure, the cap savings would last a couple of seasons, but that can be huge given that the Oil still have one year of Connor being on an ELC for one of them. They made great progress this past season and could realistically only be 2-3 key pieces (good 2nd-line winger and at least one more top-4 D-man among them) from being a real contender to win it all. Sure, guys like Shattenkirk may want to sign a long-term contract with a NMC, but they may be willing to take a little less per season in order to give their new team a chance to obtain those other pieces needed to make a team into a Cup winner. That is what turning into a good team can do. In previous seasons, the OBC had to overpay to bring any FA's to this city because the team sucked with no real prospects for improvement, much less turning into a contender. That has completely changed with Connor, Drai, Larsson, and Talbot forming a nucleus around which a winner can be built.

We might end up being surprised at how relatively little it costs the team to bring key FA's to the city along with trades.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694705 is a reply to message #694702 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 23:03 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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PlusOne wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 21:53

See, this to me is ludicrous if I understand you right. You are saying that if no one would give us something for him you would simply let him go to LV for nothing?


It's not nothing - it's cap space. For a team closer to the cap floor, 6M of cap space might not be worth a whole lot. But to this team 6M of cap space is a huge asset and I would trade it for Eberle if nothing better comes along before the expansion draft.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694690 is a reply to message #694687 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 15:43 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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What of Draisatl and the talk of him centering his own line away from McDavid? Who will there be for wingers then. IMO RNH is more expendable then Eberle in this case. RNH is no 3C. Who do we have to replace Eberles production? Pulju is wishful thinking next year.

[Updated on: Mon, 15 May 2017 15:51]


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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694693 is a reply to message #694690 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 16:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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I was listening to Gregor and Strudwick talk about the Oilers and maybe the play would be to trade Nuge over Eberle partly because of the lack of right wingers on the Oilers, Nuge would most likely have more value and the Nuge is not a 3rd line center. So it got me thinking of who I would see needing at top 6 center.

Would anyone do a Nuge for Brandon Sutter trade?

Canucks have 1 more year of the Sedin's, after that you have to think the Sedin's are done. In looking at their roster, the only young top 6 center they have on their roster right now is Horvat. Once the Sedin's are gone, I don't see who they have who would slide into a top 6 center spot.

For the Canucks in Nuge they would get a 24 yr old, local kid who is best suited as a top 6 center. Plus you got the Sedin's for Nuge to learn from for 1 more year to maybe round out a few things in his game. Miller and his 6 mill is coming off the books this year so they'd have the space. Then once the Sedin's are gone, Horvat and Nuge take the top 2 spots and you have an extra 14 mill of cap space to add around them.

In Sutter you get a 28 yr old, 6'3, 191lbs right shot center. He is typically around high teens in goals, had a few 20 goal seasons. Hovers around high 30's in points. Last year he had 17 goals, 34 pts in 81 games. Last 3 seasons he was 50.6, 52.5, 54.3% on faceoffs. He is a 3rd line center. He makes 4.375 mill. Sutters dad is owner/coach of the Red Deer Rebels. He's be coming closer to home and moving from a lousy team to a good team.

It could be a win win for both teams. The Oilers get a faceoff winning, much cheaper, legit 3rd line center. The Canucks get a younger, local, top 6 center that you don't have. They are going to need a top 6 center in a year and it may speed up their rebuilding getting a 24 yr old vs waiting for some kid to develop.

[Updated on: Mon, 15 May 2017 16:13]


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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694699 is a reply to message #694693 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 18:10 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 16:12

I was listening to Gregor and Strudwick talk about the Oilers and maybe the play would be to trade Nuge over Eberle partly because of the lack of right wingers on the Oilers, Nuge would most likely have more value and the Nuge is not a 3rd line center.


Most wingers can play either side. Drai and Slep can play right. You don't keep Eberle just because he's right-handed and prefers the right side. It's not like defense where handedness matters a lot more.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694707 is a reply to message #694699 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 23:27 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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DUFFMAN wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 18:10

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 16:12

I was listening to Gregor and Strudwick talk about the Oilers and maybe the play would be to trade Nuge over Eberle partly because of the lack of right wingers on the Oilers, Nuge would most likely have more value and the Nuge is not a 3rd line center.


Most wingers can play either side. Drai and Slep can play right. You don't keep Eberle just because he's right-handed and prefers the right side. It's not like defense where handedness matters a lot more.


I still think it matters to some degree though. It's why Mark Letestu is on our PP (where, granted, he's done a pretty good job).



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694709 is a reply to message #694707 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 23:59 Go to previous messageGo to next message
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mightyreasoner wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 23:27

DUFFMAN wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 18:10

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 16:12

I was listening to Gregor and Strudwick talk about the Oilers and maybe the play would be to trade Nuge over Eberle partly because of the lack of right wingers on the Oilers, Nuge would most likely have more value and the Nuge is not a 3rd line center.


Most wingers can play either side. Drai and Slep can play right. You don't keep Eberle just because he's right-handed and prefers the right side. It's not like defense where handedness matters a lot more.


I still think it matters to some degree though. It's why Mark Letestu is on our PP (where, granted, he's done a pretty good job).


It also matters a lot in situations that have been practiced a million times. One of which is the breakout. The extra split second it takes to consider something different can make all of the difference.
I am not saying this is an ideal example, as I never played in the NHL, but I am right handed but spent most of time on the ice playing right wing. When I ended up on the right side, in either the offensive of defensive zone I struggled picking the puck up off the boards as I had practiced obsessively to play my off wing effectively

While some players can play either most are fairly locked into one side or the other unless they played Center and moved to wing later as many centers are comfortable on either side of the ice.



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694706 is a reply to message #694693 ]
Mon, 15 May 2017 23:25 Go to previous messageGo to next message
mightyreasoner  is currently offline mightyreasoner
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RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 16:12

I was listening to Gregor and Strudwick talk about the Oilers and maybe the play would be to trade Nuge over Eberle partly because of the lack of right wingers on the Oilers, Nuge would most likely have more value and the Nuge is not a 3rd line center. So it got me thinking of who I would see needing at top 6 center.

Would anyone do a Nuge for Brandon Sutter trade?

Canucks have 1 more year of the Sedin's, after that you have to think the Sedin's are done. In looking at their roster, the only young top 6 center they have on their roster right now is Horvat. Once the Sedin's are gone, I don't see who they have who would slide into a top 6 center spot.

For the Canucks in Nuge they would get a 24 yr old, local kid who is best suited as a top 6 center. Plus you got the Sedin's for Nuge to learn from for 1 more year to maybe round out a few things in his game. Miller and his 6 mill is coming off the books this year so they'd have the space. Then once the Sedin's are gone, Horvat and Nuge take the top 2 spots and you have an extra 14 mill of cap space to add around them.

In Sutter you get a 28 yr old, 6'3, 191lbs right shot center. He is typically around high teens in goals, had a few 20 goal seasons. Hovers around high 30's in points. Last year he had 17 goals, 34 pts in 81 games. Last 3 seasons he was 50.6, 52.5, 54.3% on faceoffs. He is a 3rd line center. He makes 4.375 mill. Sutters dad is owner/coach of the Red Deer Rebels. He's be coming closer to home and moving from a lousy team to a good team.

It could be a win win for both teams. The Oilers get a faceoff winning, much cheaper, legit 3rd line center. The Canucks get a younger, local, top 6 center that you don't have. They are going to need a top 6 center in a year and it may speed up their rebuilding getting a 24 yr old vs waiting for some kid to develop.


I've thought about Nuge to Vancouver a little before.

The dropoff from Nuge to Sutter is significant though... if McDavid or Drai goes down, I don't have the same faith in Sutter being able to carry the load in the Top-6 as I do RNH. And it probably isn't a "fair-value" trade.

If the Oilers are looking to move Nuge, to me, the ideal replacement might be Matthieu Perreault in Winnipeg. The Jets are likely to lose him to Vegas in the expansion draft; he should come pretty cheap. Perhaps Drake Caggiula, Tyler Benson, or Anton Slepyshev gets the deal done?

If we are talking Vancouver, I'd like to see the deal revolve around Chris Tanev. Perhaps something like Nugent-Hopkins and Caleb Jones for Sutter and Tanev? Does that seem like fair value?



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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694715 is a reply to message #694706 ]
Tue, 16 May 2017 09:08 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
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mightyreasoner wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 23:25

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 16:12

I was listening to Gregor and Strudwick talk about the Oilers and maybe the play would be to trade Nuge over Eberle partly because of the lack of right wingers on the Oilers, Nuge would most likely have more value and the Nuge is not a 3rd line center. So it got me thinking of who I would see needing at top 6 center.

Would anyone do a Nuge for Brandon Sutter trade?

Canucks have 1 more year of the Sedin's, after that you have to think the Sedin's are done. In looking at their roster, the only young top 6 center they have on their roster right now is Horvat. Once the Sedin's are gone, I don't see who they have who would slide into a top 6 center spot.

For the Canucks in Nuge they would get a 24 yr old, local kid who is best suited as a top 6 center. Plus you got the Sedin's for Nuge to learn from for 1 more year to maybe round out a few things in his game. Miller and his 6 mill is coming off the books this year so they'd have the space. Then once the Sedin's are gone, Horvat and Nuge take the top 2 spots and you have an extra 14 mill of cap space to add around them.

In Sutter you get a 28 yr old, 6'3, 191lbs right shot center. He is typically around high teens in goals, had a few 20 goal seasons. Hovers around high 30's in points. Last year he had 17 goals, 34 pts in 81 games. Last 3 seasons he was 50.6, 52.5, 54.3% on faceoffs. He is a 3rd line center. He makes 4.375 mill. Sutters dad is owner/coach of the Red Deer Rebels. He's be coming closer to home and moving from a lousy team to a good team.

It could be a win win for both teams. The Oilers get a faceoff winning, much cheaper, legit 3rd line center. The Canucks get a younger, local, top 6 center that you don't have. They are going to need a top 6 center in a year and it may speed up their rebuilding getting a 24 yr old vs waiting for some kid to develop.


I've thought about Nuge to Vancouver a little before.

The dropoff from Nuge to Sutter is significant though... if McDavid or Drai goes down, I don't have the same faith in Sutter being able to carry the load in the Top-6 as I do RNH. And it probably isn't a "fair-value" trade.

If the Oilers are looking to move Nuge, to me, the ideal replacement might be Matthieu Perreault in Winnipeg. The Jets are likely to lose him to Vegas in the expansion draft; he should come pretty cheap. Perhaps Drake Caggiula, Tyler Benson, or Anton Slepyshev gets the deal done?

If we are talking Vancouver, I'd like to see the deal revolve around Chris Tanev. Perhaps something like Nugent-Hopkins and Caleb Jones for Sutter and Tanev? Does that seem like fair value?

I agree that the drop off between Nuge and Sutter would be a lot. Nuge is a top 6 forward, Sutter is a really good 3rd line center. BUT what team doesn't have a significant drop off from their second line center to their 3rd?

The Pens won the cup last year, they might win it again this year. The Pens have Crosby, Malkin, then Bonino. Bonino is a decent 3rd line center. But that's all he is and it's a big drop off from Malkin to Bonino. So if Malkin goes down and Bonino gets elevated, no way he does as good. Same for the Ducks. Getzlaf, Kesler are 1 & 2, then Vermette. Vermette is a real good faceoff guy but the drop off offensively is massive. Go to every team, the drop off between their #2 to #3 center is usually a lot. The Oilers might be the only team that has 3 centers that could play in their top 6. But they have 2 centers who are a lot better than Nuge. As a Red Deer guy, I like Nuge a lot but Leon is way better than Nuge. Leon is way bigger and matches up much better than Nuge defensively against all the bigger centers in the West. Leon is a much better offensive player, he's already way better at faceoffs and he's only 21. So unless you get an injury, Nuge won't get any top 6 time moving forward and in a cap world you can't pay a 3rd line player 6 mill. If this was the late 90's and early 2000's when the cap didn't matter, hell yeah keep a Nuge making 6 mill on your 3rd line for the just in case scenario. But you can't do that now.

When it comes to fair value for a trade. I think people are forgetting that cap space these days is considered an asset. The Oilers would be getting almost 1.7 mill in cap space. That is worth something. 1.7 mill in additional cap space is a 6-7 dman.

For your trade suggestion. I would do your trade all day long. If that trade happened, I would think the Oilers completely robbed the Canucks and would question Benning as GM. Good skating, decent puck moving dmen especially if they are right handed are worth a TON. So I don't think the Oilers would be able to get both Sutter and Tanev for that. Maybe if the package was Nuge & Jones for Tanev they might do it. Even then I don't know.

[Updated on: Tue, 16 May 2017 09:50]


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 Re: Starting Lineups for 2017-2018 Season [message #694729 is a reply to message #694706 ]
Tue, 16 May 2017 15:12 Go to previous messageGo to next message
OilPeg  is currently offline OilPeg
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mightyreasoner wrote on Tue, 16 May 2017 00:25

RDOilerfan wrote on Mon, 15 May 2017 16:12

I was listening to Gregor and Strudwick talk about the Oilers and maybe the play would be to trade Nuge over Eberle partly because of the lack of right wingers on the Oilers, Nuge would most likely have more value and the Nuge is not a 3rd line center. So it got me thinking of who I would see needing at top 6 center.

Would anyone do a Nuge for Brandon Sutter trade?

Canucks have 1 more year of the Sedin's, after that you have to think the Sedin's are done. In looking at their roster, the only young top 6 center they have on their roster right now is Horvat. Once the Sedin's are gone, I don't see who they have who would slide into a top 6 center spot.

For the Canucks in Nuge they would get a 24 yr old, local kid who is best suited as a top 6 center. Plus you got the Sedin's for Nuge to learn from for 1 more year to maybe round out a few things in his game. Miller and his 6 mill is coming off the books this year so they'd have the space. Then once the Sedin's are gone, Horvat and Nuge take the top 2 spots and you have an extra 14 mill of cap space to add around them.

In Sutter you get a 28 yr old, 6'3, 191lbs right shot center. He is typically around high teens in goals, had a few 20 goal seasons. Hovers around high 30's in points. Last year he had 17 goals, 34 pts in 81 games. Last 3 seasons he was 50.6, 52.5, 54.3% on faceoffs. He is a 3rd line center. He makes 4.375 mill. Sutters dad is owner/coach of the Red Deer Rebels. He's be coming closer to home and moving from a lousy team to a good team.

It could be a win win for both teams. The Oilers get a faceoff winning, much cheaper, legit 3rd line center. The Canucks get a younger, local, top 6 center that you don't have. They are going to need a top 6 center in a year and it may speed up their rebuilding getting a 24 yr old vs waiting for some kid to develop.


I've thought about Nuge to Vancouver a little before.

The dropoff from Nuge to Sutter is significant though... if McDavid or Drai goes down, I don't have the same faith in Sutter being able to carry the load in the Top-6 as I do RNH. And it probably isn't a "fair-value" trade.

If the Oilers are looking to move Nuge, to me, the ideal replacement might be Matthieu Perreault in Winnipeg. The Jets are likely to lose him to Vegas in the expansion draft; he should come pretty cheap. Perhaps Drake Caggiula, Tyler Benson, or Anton Slepyshev gets the deal done?

If we are talking Vancouver, I'd like to see the deal revolve around Chris Tanev. Perhaps something like Nugent-Hopkins and Caleb Jones for Sutter and Tanev? Does that seem like fair value?


Perreault is a terrible center. Jets played him as their 3C to start the season on a line with Laine and Armia and he was atrocious. He played probably the first 20 games or so as a center, then got hurt. He came back and was put on the wing and immediately played better. He's not the solution for 3C, although I love him as a player. He makes every line he's on better, as long as he's a winger.



Skookum Jim wrote on Sat, 02 June 2012 00:29

But he (Belanger)'s as soft as room temp. margarine.

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