In general, for any sort of analysis of a player or team's performance, I like to use a "twenty-game rule", in that anything less than that is not necessarily representative of what is the likely long-term success or failure of said individual or group. As such, I felt it was inappropriate to do a quarter-season report card after the Heritage Classic, as I didn't think that I could get a good gauge on where the team would be even 20 games later. How right I turned out to be.

The grading system used here is a simple A-B-C-D-F system, with B being approximately "average" or what is expected of the player. The grades are a combination of expectations or performance. For example, Ryan Smyth and Raffi Torres may have the same amount of goals at this point in the season, but Torres' performance is more significant based on the expectations placed upon him by the team, fans and media at the beginning of the season.

Grades are listed in descending order from highest to lowest, with the exception of the coaching staff grade and the comments on the management. Without further delay, let's get started:

Mike York - A+ So far this season, the Oilers undisputed MVP. On pace for career highs in goals and points, tied for 2nd on the team in plus/minus, and leading all forwards in average ice time, through playing at ES, on the PP and PK. This, from a guy coming of a broken wrist that was initially feared to be an injury that could plague him for the entire season. I would be very surprised if he didn't make his 2nd All-Star game appearance and first representing the Oil, but that selection process is a different debate altogether.

Jason Smith - A On pace for a career high in goals and points as well, Jason Smith may not be the best dressing room interview, but he leads by example with tenacious play on the ice. Among the league leaders in plus-minus, Smith has been the Oilers most consistent defenseman this year, and the team is currently anxiously awaiting his return from an ankle sprain. A true warrior who would be an attractive quantity to most playoff teams, Smith's upcoming UFA status in summer of 2005 will be of concern to GM Kevin Lowe. If he's not signed to an extension, Smith is a potential candidate to be dealt prior to the trading deadline, which would be a definite blow to the Edmonton defense corps.

Raffi Torres - A- Originally the "other" player acquired for Janne Niinimaa in the 2nd deal at the trading deadline, Torres would likely be a rookie of the year candidate if not for his 33 games in two seasons on Long Island. A tough forward with a mean streak, a love for physical contact and a surprising scoring tough, Torres has formed chemistry with Radek Dvorak and Mike York into what is probably the Oilers top offensive line right now. He reminds this individual of a Brenden Morrow who will be a fixture in the Oilers top six for years to come. His only drawback was a long scoring drought through late November and most of December, but now reunited with York and Dvorak, the Torrminator seems to be back on track.

Radek Dvorak - B+ Originally under the gun after the controversial deal that sent Anson Carter to Manhattan last March, Dvorak has been one of the most consistent Oilers this season in terms of effort. He is tied with Mike York for the lead in plus/minus among forwards, and has been contributing offensively in terms of playmaking. However, with only 7 goals, he needs to rediscover the scoring touch of a few seasons ago when he played on the Czech-mate line with the Rangers. Such an action would likely directly benefit the Oiler special teams, as Dvorak and young Ales Hemsky could be counted on to play the role of triggermen from the high slot on the struggling Oiler power play, assuming that Fernando Pisani wasn't sent out instead by Craig Mactavish to play the man-advantage situation.

Ryan Smyth - B The biggest surprise about Ryan Smyth's season thus far is the fact that he has yet to miss a game due to injury, which has been an atypical occurrence considering the style of game that Smyth plays. With modest goal and assist totals and a plus minus that was, until recently, on the bad side of zero, Smyth has been so-so thus far this season. However, much of that can likely be accounted to his having to play out of position at center for a good portion of the first half, on the checking line with Ethan Moreau and Pisani for a fair part of that period. If he was going to have to play center, why not with Brad Isbister and Ales Hemsky, two guys Smyth showed chemistry with in the preseason? Smyth has looked better as of late with Adam Oates and Isbister, especially wearing the captain's C in Jason Smith's absence. A reunion with Hemsky in the 2nd half may kick start both player's so-so seasons to date.

Jarret Stoll - B The Oilers top rookie thus far, Stoll has a modest total of six goals, despite only playing 29 games. The impressive part of his game has been his ability to contribute to the team in short handed situations and on the face-off dot, a spot where the presence of Adam Oates has helped Stoll, among others. Many positive signs that Stoll could one day be a very solid third-line center capable of offensive contributions. Maybe a Selke nomination one day down the road? It's a little early to say that, but that's the type of upside that he has.

Steve Staios - B Contributing early with solid defensive play and timely offensive involvement, Staios was awarded with a contract-extension the week before the Heritage Classic. However, the wear of leading the Oilers in ATOI at over 25 minutes a game has shown in recent weeks, as he has not had the same involvement or effectiveness in his game. He will have to rediscover the early season magic to help the Oilers in the 2nd half with their playoff drive. Plays with grit and determination every night, but the fatigue factor shows that he has limits.

Alexei Semenov - B Banished to the press box for much of the early season in favor of Scott Ferguson due to an alleged lack of effort and intensity, Semenov is a fixture in the Oilers 2nd pairing as of late and has been chipping in with solid defensive play. If he was given the opportunity to display his excellent slapshot on the Oiler power play, he might be able to contribute offensively as well, but due to the apparent Cory Cross love affair, that has yet to happen.

Ty Conklin - B Conklin did an admirable job in November when he was forced to carry the load due to a groin injury to Tommy Salo, as the Oilers had their best run of the season over that time period. With a .918 save percentage, Conklin has been solid yet unspectacular. He's has good fundamentals but has given up a few Salo-esque soft goals as of late, when he has appeared less frequently due to a brief resurgence in the game of the Oilers number 1 goalie for the past 4+ seasons. Conklin's puck handling ability reminds one of a Marty Turco-type, and it will be interesting to see how his game develops in coming seasons. There is definite potential for Conklin to be a very good backup or perhaps as part of a successful tandem with another goalie, but to say he's a lock to one day be the Oilers starting goalie is still not a definite. Will likely get more games in the 2nd half to gauge what role he will play next season and beyond.

Ales Hemsky - B- The talented youngster has struggled with inconsistency this season, and has had difficulty establishing chemistry with linemates due to massive amounts of juggling. Right now he's on the fourth line, but will likely see time in the top six once again, and soon. He has already surpassed last season's goal totals, and is on pace for a 50 point season, which is no small feat for a sophomore. He needs to work on his defensive game and is from time to time prone to giveaways, but there is still much to like about the young man who is the Oilers star of the future.

Shawn Horcoff - B- After a very slow start to the season which saw him playing limited minutes from the fourth line, Horcoff has found his game as of late. He has improved his face-off success rate, and has contributed a few timely goals. His plus/minus still needs improvement from its minus-5 standing. Will need to improve his defensive play if he ever hopes to be more than a role player, but you can see the effort is there as of late. An early disappointment after a big playoff and World Championship performance, Horcoff will need a similar stretch run to his performance last year to help the Oilers into the top eight.

Ethan Moreau - B- A fierce competitor who is a great defensive forward with a somewhat untapped offensive potential, Moreau contributed 8 goals through the first half despite enduring a long scoring drought. He's at his best when on the Oilers checking line. He continues, however, to take many unnecessary penalties, possibly due to his competitive spirit. The last remaining member of the MGM line, Kevin Lowe's signing of Moreau to a long-term deal and the subsequent naming of him as an alternate captain looks to be a good move in terms of ensuring a veteran presence. More consistent offense would increase his value to the Oilers.

Eric Brewer - B- A very substandard offensive first half from the Oilers 2003 All-Star representative, Brewer has been the subject of trade rumors as of late. Despite good defensive play through the majority of the season (was even or better in terms of plus/minus in 36 games through the first half of the season), his offensive involvement and general intensity were inconsistent for the first six weeks of the season. However, since December 1st, Brewer has been much more active in terms of puck rushing while continuing to be a force in the defensive zone. Such continued play would almost certainly contribute to a rise in offensive contribution over the 2nd half. Brewer has taken his game to another level in the recent absence of Jason Smith. He has been likely the best Oiler blueliner since the Christmas break.

Marc-Andre Bergeron - B- Offensive involvement is key to this young Oiler's game. Bergeron has contributed with 11 points thus far in only 28 games, while maintaining a positive plus/minus statistic. However, he was alternated in and out of the lineup early with Alexei Semenov, and recently was sent to the AHL briefly due to an increase in giveaways. However, there is no doubting that Bergeron adds an offensive dimension to the Oiler blueline that no other current roster defenseman can duplicate. With the recent signing of Igor Ulanov and the continuing love-affair with Scott Ferguson by the coaching staff (he's from Camrose, you know), Bergeron will be hard pressed to get action in the 2nd half if he doesn't rediscover his early season play, which was both contributing offensively and being responsible defensively. Patience with this young talent will be necessary, as with all young defensemen, especially puck-rushers.

Fernando Pisani - C+ What you see is what you get from this role playing winger. Fernando is at his best when he's part of the RPM shutdown unit. His offensive contribution isn't what it was in his Oiler debut last year and could improve, but if he continues his solid defensive contributions (at a bargain basement price), Pisani will continue to be a valuable depth player for the Oilers, but likely not much more.

Cory Cross - C+ Despite his often unattractive skating style, Cross has been somewhat of a pleasant surprise offensively with 5 goals and 7 assists through the first half, as well as a solid +5 rating. He's a more-than-adequate 3rd pairing defenseman, however he has limits. Playing him in the top four or on the powerplay would be something a smart head coach would avoid.

Scott Ferguson - C+ The Fernando Pisani of the defensive corps for the Oilers, Ferguson always gives it a good effort and is willing to defend his teammates. However, he is likely nothing more than a 7th defenseman, yet he continues to see playing time despite the fact that a guy like Marc-Andre Bergeron may add more to the Oiler special teams. One of the many mysteries of the MacT era, but we'll get to that later….

Jason Chimera - C Partially a victim of the numbers game on the left wing, Chimera has been sparingly used thus far, despite opening the season as the 2nd line left winger. He has only contributed 3 goals in 32 games and is a defensive liability. Expect him to score more in the 2nd half if given the chance, but don't expect him to be more than a 4th liner without some improvements in his own zone.

Brad Isbister - C Despite improved offensive play with some timely goals and a more consistent effort as of late, Isbister has not met expectations in terms of being a power forward for the Oilers. Much of his first 30 games was spent in a fourth line role, which is not a position he is geared to be successful in. To be a contributor to the Oilers, Isbister must play in an offensive role. He is currently getting his shot with Adam Oates and Ryan Smyth, but he's likely on his 9th life. He has to continue to make plays such as the goal he scored against the Canucks in Vancouver on December 27th; with his size, skating ability and shot, if Isbister is working, he can be very difficult to contain. But the effort is key.

Georges Laraque - D No goals, few fights and seemingly little to no physical involvement most nights, Laraque seems to be going through the motions. Despite his new three-year contract, the clock is ticking for the Oiler enforcer due to his minimal contribution to the lineup. It would be a surprise if Laraque is still an Oiler come the trade deadline.

Tommy Salo - D For 3.9 million dollars per year, a GAA near 3 and an .882 save percentage are just not good enough. Has played better as of late, but Salo has been a disappointment, injuries aside. He won't be getting his option picked up by the Oilers this summer, and will only be back with the Oilers at a reduced rate (or so we all hope).

Incomplete Player Grades (Less than 20 games played): Marty Reasoner, Adam Oates, Igor Ulanov, Tony Salmelainen, Mikko Luoma, Doug Lynch

Comments:

• Reasoner was off to a good start before his injury, and the Oiler struggles in his absence show his value to this team
• Oates' presence no doubt has contributed to the team's improvement in the face-off department, but his 3 assists have been disappointment; he can't be expected to single-handedly improve the inept Oiler powerplay, as much of the struggles simply come down to personnel decisions and the system implemented by the coaches
• Salmelainen was somewhat of a surprise call-up ahead of Jani Rita, but displayed good energy in his 10 games; looks to be a future depth player for the big team, but there's no room at the inn thus far.
Ulanov has added additional stability to the Oiler blueline in his two games, somewhat of a surprise given his exit from the team in 2001. A surprise he's added stability, and a surprise that he even is back with the team. His signing leaves one to wonder if there's a trade coming involving an Oiler defenseman, but that would be pure speculation at this point.

Coaching (Craig MacTavish, Charlie Huddy, Billy Moores, Craig Simpson) - F Really, I don't have much to say here that I haven't already elsewhere. The Oilers are a pretty good 5-on-5 team. However, there have been some bizarre decisions from behind the bench this year. Line combinations and shuffling often seem random, players are often misused, and the systems play (i.e. PP and PK) have both been nothing short of terrible for the majority of the season. As an Oiler fan, it's tough to look to the south right now and see what the Flames are doing this season with a smart coach behind the bench, while one has to watch the Oilers struggle from night to night with inconsistency and problems which have seemingly plagued the Oilers for years now.

General Manager (Kevin Lowe) - Incomplete Actually, when you look at what Kevin Lowe did in the first half of the season, he made a couple of positive moves that should be recognized. The signing of Steve Staios to a contract extension was one, and the Adam Oates signing, while still incomplete in terms of evaluation, at least from where this writer sits, was a necessary move to attempt to help the face-offs, improve the powerplay, and shore up the center spot in lieu of Marty Reasoner's absence. The big move of the first half was the handling of the Mike Comrie situation. Credit is due to Lowe for not panicking and taking a substandard return (such as the proposed Anaheim trade) for Comrie. His demand for money back from Comrie was controversial but revolutionary. However, despite receiving what I would deem reasonable value for Comrie when he was dealt on December 16th for Jeff Woywitka, a first round 2004 draft pick, and a 3rd rounder in 2005, he failed to receive immediate help for the hockey team. Much of his grade will, at the end of the season, be evaluated on whether or not he makes moves in the 2nd half to help the team. Personally, I am speculating that it's a near certainty that Georges Laraque is dealt and possibly soon, and other moves are certainly possible. However, the move that this team might need most is a coaching change. Lowe had the opportunity to replace MacT this summer, but did not do so. Will, if the time comes to do so, if it hasn't already, Lowe be willing and able to fire his friend and former teammate? I'm skeptical at best. Long term, there are a couple things to monitor, one being how the Comrie trade plays out over time, and the other is Zach Parise vs. Marc-Antoine Pouliot. The Oilers passed on Parise and dealt their pick to New Jersey so they could select Parise at 17th last June, opting for Pouliot at 22nd and JF Jacques with an additional pick received from the Devils. With Parise's MVP performance at the World Junior's fresh in many pundit's minds, this situation will be monitored closely for a few years. As Oiler fans, we have to hope it's not like the situation that is often brought up now concerning the 1995 draft, and the Sather-regime decision to pass on not only Shane Doan, but Jarome Iginla as well, to select one Steve Kelly.

2nd Half Outlook

The Oilers are in very tough in the remainder of this season to make their 7th playoff appearance in 8 years. They will need to play significantly above .500 if they hope to secure a playoff berth. Key players in this stretch will include Marty Reasoner (will his return have an impact), Adam Oates (can he step up offensively and help the powerplay), Mike York (will his career year continue), Ryan Smyth (can he contribute more in the way he did in past seasons), Brad Isbister (can he continue his improved play as of late), Eric Brewer (will he step up offensively from the back-end), and Tommy Salo (can he return to team-MVP form and steal some games for the team). The most critical step to the Oilers improving their standing will be improvement on the special teams, which must come from the top down. The way the coaching reacts to the challenges of the first half and attempts to fix the problems which plagued the Edmonton Oilers through the first half of the season will largely determine whether or not that the team manages to return to the Stanley Cup tournament for the 20th time in it's 25 year history.

Note: All statistics and comments pertain to the games leading up to the 41st game of the season against the New York Islanders on January 8th, 2004.