My first thought is - where are all the Swedes (we drafted 3 Swedes in 21 drafts)? My second thought is - what is with all the U.S. college and high school players (drafted a total of 45 - roughly 20%)? One look at Ottawa's roster should tell us that Swedes can play and Sundin isn't just a freak of nature. Barry Fraser may try to tell us that the Oilers philosophy was to always draft their highest rated players… but then I would like him to explain to me why all those 'highly rated' U.S. college and high school players didn't pan out?

My next conclusion is this - we may not have had the best drafting record, but it isn't as bad as many believe. Satan, Arnott, Rucinsky, Smyth, Poti, even Werenka and Laraques are all good players. From our draft base alone we have the makings of a very good team. Our weakness would seem to be twofold: a) the inability to draft impact players (true 'stars') that perform right away and can carry the Oilers into the play-offs every year, and b) the inability to draft that 'surprise' player, the player that is picked #1002 and becomes a starter. Our draft successes have come from where they are picked. Arnott, Smyth, Devereaux, and even Laraques, are all second round or better picks - no surprises there (even Rucinsky was a fourth rounder) - only Satan (pick #111) breaks this trend.

At this point I am forced to think back to a 1999 draft preparation article written by OSM's very own Disco Stu (Matthew Bennett). It can be found at this link www.hockeysfuture.com/99previewedm.html and talks (mainly) about a disturbing Oiler trend of always trying to hit a homerun in the draft. I am forced to agree to a large extent. The absence of Swedish picks contrasts sharply with the large number of U.S. college picks - meaning one of two things (probably both): a) Fraser spent an inordinate amount of time scouting the U.S. colleges, and/or b) Fraser was enchanted with the apparent skill displayed in the U.S. system. Having Glenn Anderson turn out to be such a success so early probably didn't help matters.

(Here is an interesting aside - Glenn Anderson and Jari Kurri may have contributed mightily to the number of players the Oilers drafted from those systems. Anderson was the pre-cursor to another 27 U.S. college picks - the third highest # of picks from any system; the OHL and WHL are #1 and #2. Kurri was the torchbearer for another 13 Finnish draft picks - the fifth highest # of picks from any nationality; Canadians, Americans, Czechoslovakians (pre-split) and Russian are ahead. However, Finland is pretty small, on a hockey-player-per-capita basis they rank ahead of the Russians and probably the Americans. Maybe even Canada? It seems that for Barry Fraser, if it wasn't broke - don't fix it.)

Time to be controversial.

The Swedish programs have traditionally churned out a large number of complete players - decent defense, decent offence, etc - but rarely the type of player that projects to be a home-run hit (Sundin and the Sedin's excepted). The U.S. programs have traditionally churned out speedy, skill players. The problem (I think) was two-fold: a) up until the last half-dozen years the U.S. college teams were usually made up of Canadians who couldn't make a Canadian Junior team (WHL, etc), and b) it is easy to look speedy and skilled in the college style of play. Where a pick from the Swedish system may have been the safer play, the college pick may have projected to be a better player.

Essentially I am saying that the Oilers draft philosophy and allocation of scouting resources may have had some inherent biases and some substantial flaws. Let me put it another way - the Oilers are a small budget team that forgot to sweat the details. Taking some 'home-run' shots at the draft table is all well and fine - but failing to draft meat-and-potato players at the same time has played a large role in hurting the Oiler's ability to field depth on the ice. I am willing to bet that more examination would reveal that the Oilers RARELY drafted overage players, if at all. I do not want to harp on the 'Swedish issue' too much, but how can drafting an Arvedsson type player hurt your team? It doesn't have to be Swedes by the way… we only ever drafted 15 Russian players…

STILL - despite all of that, our drafting hasn't been a total disaster. So I wondered what other underlying problems might be…

…well, lets start with development. If a player doesn't make an impact right away, why aren't they making an impact for us down the road? Werenka, Wright, Satan and Arnott have all matured on other teams. I suspect that there is a problem with our player development. Given that we aren't drafting many impact players… development is where it is. A poor development system isn't the only underlying problem though…

…another thought occurred to me as well. Player budget. The Oilers have always had a small player budget. This means that we have to trade expensive veterans at an unhealthy rate. Would Arnott have been so much trouble if Messier had been kept around as team captain? I suspect not. Messier would have been around to smack Arnott during his temper tantrums AND Messier would have been the guy the press leaned on during tough times. Satan and Rucinsky were traded, in part, because we couldn't afford them - i.e. we couldn't afford to have them sit around indefinitely while the team struggled and we couldn't afford to let them mature while on the payroll.

The trickle down effect of a small budget has had disastrous effects on the Oilers. Player's who do well 'stand-out' on the team - meaning that they can demand more money (than they might get with a team like New Jersey) come contract time AND they hurt the team more when they sit-out (think Doug Weight). The team can't stockpile veteran depth in order to teach the younger players (the best we can do on defense is Frank Musil) how to play - and how to win.

When you combine the small budget with a mediocre draft record, a questionable developmental system and an aggressive player's union… well the result is what we now have. A team with little depth forced to pay outlandish rates for third line talent.

Well, I don't have much more to say. Our drafting hasn't really been all that bad - it is how we went about doing it and what we did with it that should raise the red-flags. Barry Fraser will be gone soon. Let us all hope the next 20+ years of Oilers drafting starts off just like the last 20… but finishes a lot better. I hope you have enjoyed this article - my thanks in advance to Michael-John Kozak… the poor sap who volunteered to convert this monster to html script.

Take Care All,

YKOil
a.k.a. Jaysen Knight
jaysen@compusmart.ab.ca